Just to recap for those chronically distracted by the tribulations of pop stars, Burmese monks staged a peaceful rebellion against the country's military government in reaction to a sharp rise in commodity prices. Western observers had high hopes for the so-called 'Saffron Revolution', named for the mustard-colored robes worn by the monks who paraded in their thousands down the boulevards of Rangoon and Mandalay. Breathless reporters seemed to assume that the drama unfolding would inevitably follow the script of other color-schemed revolutions that peacefully replaced autocratic rulers in Georgia (Rose) and Ukraine (Orange). General Than Shwe and his decades-old military junta seemed to be on their way out. Optimism was in the air.

Largely oblivious to the opinion of outsiders, the generals proceeded to kill, maim and arrest untold hundreds if not thousands of the monks and others. If it wasn't quite as brutal as the last military crackdown, which occurred in 1988, it was certainly bad enough.

In their stolid, silent style Burmese generals have proved over the past 45 years that they could care less about the welfare, never mind the yearnings or rights of their people. What really concerns them is their own wealth, generated by the country's vast natural resources. And if the flow of cash into their pockets is to remain uninterrupted, it is imperative they maintain an iron grip on the resources of a country that they must also keep whole, which in Burma's case is far from a simple proposition. A closer look at what Burma is and what it has can turn any wide-eyed idealist into a grim realist.

The country is a vast, complexly fractious multi-ethnic, multi-lingual mosaic. Aside from the dominant Burmans, the country includes ethnic groups such as Karens, Mon, Rachines, Tavoyans, Wa, Chins, Shans, most persecuted by the military junta. Many happen to inhabit sections of the country especially rich in resources.

Burma is blessed (or cursed) with a dazzling selection of natural treasures: oil, natural gas, coal, copper, gold, silver, gemstones and much more. According to the US Geological Survey, Burma has proven reserves of 3.2 billion barrels of crude and 2.46 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. At $80/barrel of oil and $200/thousand cubic meters of natural gas, Burma owns $256 billion worth of oil, and about $460 billion in natural gas, or over $700 billion dollars in energy resources untapped. And the generals are expected to just walk away from all this?

Countries such as Burma may be classified as 'Cobbled Multi-Ethnic Mosaics', or CMEMs. It so happens that a large proportion of CMEMs are autocracies of various flavors, and that the probability of a CMEM being an autocracy rises sharply if it is rich in natural resources.

The illustrious ranks of CMEMs include the former Russia, and the ex-Soviet Central Asian republics, China, Angola, Zimbabwe, Sudan and many others. Burma fits the list nicely.

Western governments made all sorts of appropriate noises about supporting Burmese democracy. But many interested parties are wary of the potential fallout from a revolution in Rangoon, especially in light of events in post-Tito Yugoslavia and Iraq après-Saddam. Such wariness is certainly held by Burma's immediate neighbors.

According to data from the US Geological Survey, energy and mining companies in India, China, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Japan have all cultivated cozy partnerships with the generals, involving long-term exploration and production contracts for oil, natural gas and copper. That's why last week's attempt to impose sanctions on Burma was vetoed in the UN by China, who prefers a secure fuel supply line from a reliable and familiar dictatorship as opposed to a potentially unstable democracy on its doorstep, ripping apart at the seams.

The optimistic idealist hopes for a saffron-colored future of freedom and prosperity for all Burmese. But the grim realist concludes that Burma's neighbors have little to gain and much to lose if the junta was to disappear one day. In the event of such an eventuality China, India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Laos might find themselves facing an imploding Burma flying apart, a southeast Asian Iraq, Somalia and Yugoslavia al rolled into one, right on their collective doorstep.