The Senator's argument for increasing the troop level built on the premise that moderate forces in Iraq is on the rise. These forces are willing to stand to extremism and support America's effort in the war on terror. More security on the ground will buy the time desperately needed to strengthen the moderate elements, which will help facilitate success in Iraq.
While I believe that immediate troop withdrawal is not in the best interest of the United States, I disagree with the recycled rhetoric about extremism, war on terror and moderate forces in the region.
The fact of the matter is, United States forces cannot leave immediately, because recent history taught us that a vacuum would invite undesirable powers to take advantage of the environment, which, over time, will become a force capable of hurting America's interests.
Al-Qaeda and other extremist groups trained and grew their ideology of hatred in the mountains of Afghanistan, after the American administration left abruptly at the end of the Soviet War. The vacuum in Afghanistan is the father of 9/11.
While Iraq was a contained country with a bad leader before our invasion, it is today falling quickly in a deep dark quagmire of civil war and our kids are caught in the middle.
We did not have to go to war in Iraq, but we did. It is broke and we own, it borrowing on Secretary Powell's words.
The geographical location and natural resources in Iraq have the potential to create risks with greater consequences than the ones existed in Afghanistan.
Therefore, with all due respect, to the Senator and the official line from the administration, it is not democracy and victory that we are after, at this point of time, it is self-preservation and risk mitigation, which are more reasonable and acceptable excuses to go to war.
However, even if the American public accepts the argument to stay the course in Iraq, there is a legitimate concern that adding ten to fifteen percent more troops will not drastically alter the facts on the ground. Subsequently the only outcome of a troop surge will be additional bleeding in lives and treasure. In addition, our forces in Iraq are not facing a single enemy but several with different agendas and goals.
The recent poll numbers show over seventy percent of Iraqis believe that American troops are a legitimate target. These numbers are significantly different than the ones which existed immediately after the fall of Baghdad, associated with the image of people celebrating Sadam's statue falling to the ground.
A major step in recovering whatever hope is left for America in Iraq is dependent on understanding and admitting that we did not get where we are overnight. The collapse happened over three years and the monthly count of injured and dead American soldiers is a proof.
The decision to dissolve an army of five hundred thousand to a society with over seventy percent unemployment rate, without planning how all these people will feed their families is an example.
Invading a country without any understanding of the culture, the religious and racial texture of the society is another example.
Failing to develop a formal reconstruction plan ready to use at the end of the military phase is a third example.
Iraq is a war won by our troops and lost by poor management every step of the way.
I am an Egyptian American born in Alexandria. I immigrated to the US in the late eighties, during this time lived in many places in US and Europe. I work as an IT manager and love it. I love to travel, it makes me feel young, and it awakes in me sense of adventure and curiosity. I love knowing people from different cultures; it never fails to amaze me how we all live in our little worlds that never meet. History is my second amazement, it always differ depending on who is winning, that leads me to my third hobby, politics is it history or human nature that is the culprit?
Mr. Abdelaziz has raised many strong points in his analysis and his conclusion that America should not leave Iraq. Such thoughtful and careful analysis and clearly stated views are essential to a robust debate of our options in Iraq.
I would like to state a straightforward, but nontrivial objection to Mr. Abdelazziz conclusion that America should prolong its presence in Iraq.
A book produced by the American Petroleum Institute and published back in 03 described a nightmare scenario in the Gulf of conflict that pushed world oil prices to the catastrophic level of $40 a barrel.
Reuters reported this morning that oil prices on international markets slid to $60 a barrel.
We seem to be surviving quite well under these conditions.
Although I am focussing here on only one dimension of the consequences of a withdrawal from Iraq, this example supports my point that the consequences of a withdrawal may well be more endurable and less harmful than observers like Mr. Abdelazziz predict.
Robert Chapman
Lansing, NY
by
Robert Chapman (28 articles, 0 quicklinks, 2 diaries, 557 comments)
on Wednesday, January 3, 2007 at 6:57:10 PM
Thank you, Mr. Chapman for your kind words. You are right, we are doing OK with 60$ barrel of oil, regardless of the American Petroleum Institute prediction. It is not the first institution or think tank that got it wrong otherwise, Iraq would be supporting our invasion with their Oil production by now.
However, the current price has 30 percent premium because of the geopolitical situation according to Exxon CEO and it is stable because it takes in consideration the status of the region today, polling out will change the situation and the risk premium.
The real danger though goes beyond energy. In my opinion, the extremist religious based ideology is the greatest danger. An unstable Iraq will provide the perfect ground for recruiting more extremists that sincerely believe America is after their religion, which is the only thing they still own!
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sameh abdelaziz (35 articles, 6 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 28 comments)
on Wednesday, January 3, 2007 at 9:56:11 PM
If we do leave Iraq in short order: all those insurgents are emboldened and go where? Saudi Arabia? Lebanon? The Horn of Africa? All around Israel?
And who else could tumble and fall? Pakistan? Thailand? Israel? The House of Saud?
We had better get a Blue Ribbon Panel going in the U.S. to get ready for what's NEXT!
When we lose Iraq we are saying to someone else: here is your Black Spot.
I know I am vastly in the minority on this and even if Keane and Kagan have the president's ear: you still have to get past Biden and Kennedy. And Reid. And Murtha. Byrd. Levin.
Sadly, they have not made a convincing "we've thought this through and for the good of the nation and the world here are the alternatives and here is our plan..." argument.
If they did I missed it.......so shame on me!!
Getting into a war is relatively easy. Getting out with an acceptable situation is tougher....
John
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John E. Carey (207 articles, 0 quicklinks, 10 diaries, 106 comments)
on Thursday, January 4, 2007 at 2:07:26 AM
Thank you for pointing this out. Somewhere else is everywhere, and the failing states you mentioned will be springboard for more attacks. Isn't that what happened in the mid-eighties after they left Afghanistan?
by
sameh abdelaziz (35 articles, 6 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 28 comments)
on Thursday, January 4, 2007 at 7:19:10 AM
