The Iran NIE has elicited a range of emotions in those opposed to the Bush administration's policies from gloating to discreet celebration. In the minds of many, it's like V-Day: Let the church bells peal, kiss a girl in Times Square. Others, particularly Iranian commentators located in the US, are considerably less sanguine.
They fear, as Farideh Farhi writes at Juan Cole's spin-off, Informed Comment: Global Affairs, that the NIE can "easily become an instrument in support of the Bush Administration's current policy."
In fact, according to Kaveh Afrasiabi at Asia Times Online, "The temporary freeze on the military option [resulting from] the new intelligence report has nested within itits exact opposite." In other words, a Trojan horse.
Even though, he maintains, the nuclear programs that Iran halted in 2004-2005 were not weapons, the NIE and the administration painted them as such. If a follow-up report were to indicate that Iran planned to resurrect said weapons program, that would provide "ample justification for Washington's planned 'pre-emptive strikes' on Iran, not to mention added sanctions."
Thus leaving "the pendulum capable of swinging in wildly different directions almost at will."
Meanwhile, at CASMII (Campaign Against Sanctions and Military Action Against Iran), Daniel Pourkesali writes, "Forgive this writer for being a spoiler." But he too finds that the resurrection theme is like a ticking time bomb embedded in the NIE.
He mentions the "assertions on page 7 paragraph D [of the NIE] that 'Iranian entities are continuing to develop a range of technical capabilities that could be applied to produce nuclear weapons if a decision is made to do so.'"
They leave "the door wide open for administration hawks like Mr. Cheney to abruptly accuse Iran of resurrecting its 'nuclear weapons program much as he did back in 2002, claiming that Saddam Hussein had 'resumed his effort to acquire nuclear weapons.'" In other words, the hawks are fixated on another bird, the phoenix.
At NIAC (National Iranian-American Council), Trita Parsi explains how the administration further unrolls the rock before the resurrection justification. "Rather than adjusting policy on Iran in accordance to the reality-check provided by the NIE, the President moved the goal post on Iran.
"As the NIE declared that Iran likely doesn't have a weapons program, the President shifted the red line from weaponization to the mere knowledge of enriching uranium [which, of course] is not of a military nature and is permitted by the Non-Proliferation Treaty."
"The President also pointed out, as though to justify military strikes, that Iran's knowledge of the enrichment process would permit Tehran to have a clandestine program. [But, of course] a full suspension of the Iranian program would not eliminate the Iranian knowledge of the enrichment program and, as a result, the risk of a clandestine program would continue to exist."
Unless, of course, the atomic scientists of Iran submitted to the erasure of their memories as if their minds were hard drives.
Finally, Ms. Farhi comments on the "propitious convergence between the NIE and the Bush Administration's current policy and the timing of the release of this report," which was finished a year ago. (See Gareth Porter for a full explanation.)
First she reminds us of Stephen Hadley's statement that "the President has the right strategy, intensified international pressure along with the willingness to negotiate. . . [and for it] to succeed, the international community has to turn up the pressure on Iran –- with diplomatic isolation, United Nations Sanctions, and with other financial pressure."
Then she frets that "this NIE can so easily become an instrument in support of the Bush Administration's current policy."
Russ Wellen is the nuclear deproliferation editor for OpEdNews. He's also on the staffs of Freezerbox and Scholars & Rogues.
"It's hard to tell people not to smoke when you have a cigarette dangling from your mouth." -- Mohamed El Baradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency
This is a VERY astute observation. Some analysts recognized
this same problem the very night that the NIE news broke. For instance, Bill Van Auken of the World Socialist Web Site wrote about it Tuesday night:
...The differences between the US intelligence estimate and the UN agency’s findings, however, were made clear in a statement by an IAEA official to the Times:
“Despite repeated smear campaigns, the IAEA has stood its ground and concluded time and again that since 2002 there was no evidence of an undeclared nuclear weapons program in Iran. It also validates the assessment of the director general that what the IAEA inspectors have seen in Iran represented no imminent danger.”
In other words, the UN agency found no evidence that the nuclear weapons program the NIE now claims was in operation until 2003 ever existed.
In this sense, the shift by the US intelligence agencies from expressing “high confidence” in 2005 that Iran was engaged in an attempt “to develop nuclear weapons,” to asserting with the same “high confidence” two years later that the Iranians had halted such a program in 2003 may represent the substitution of one phony pretext for war for another.
No evidence has ever been presented to substantiate the existence of a nuclear weapons program. And no description is offered in the current NIE of precisely what activities were halted in 2003....
Just over sixty years ago, a collection of mainly European scientific minds, working for the interests of the United States, found to the key to Pandora's Atomic Box.
Over time, science has opened many other mysterious doors to the physcial universe, most of which as an imature species we lack the good judgement to step through. However, it is mans nature to explore, and that exploration with sooner or later reveal a yet unknown aspect of phsyics whose destructive potentuial will dwarf the manipulation of the atom. What is that next order of magnitude?
No matter what it is, or how difficult to control, should it be the United States that dictates which other country may or may not explore the mysteries of the universe? Who is going to police, limit, or control future scientific understanding?
It is scary knowing that any collection of human beings has the ability to unleash nuclear explosives, the US is the only country to have split the atom in anger (maddening as it is, we all have to be glad that we did)but an Islamic, Jihad endorsing, collection of emotionalized lunatics with nukes is waaaay more scary than the US with nukes....it's that ISLAM thing....
Planet ending weapons are going to happen. That's where we are in mankinds scientific time line. Did the NIE suddenly get a conscience? Did they release information to embarrass our fearless leader? Or, is Bush clever and secure enough to request such disinformation to be released as a time buying Trojan Horse diversion?
So many possibilities and no crystal ball. All I know for certan is that the world is going to get waaay more scary......no matter WHO sits in the oval office.
by
James Strait (39 articles, 0 quicklinks, 7 diaries, 191 comments)
on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 11:25:39 AM
“the US is the only country to have split the atom in anger (maddening as it is, we all have to be glad that we did)but an Islamic, Jihad endorsing, collection of emotionalized lunatics with nukes is waaaay more scary than the US with nukes....it's that ISLAM thing...." At this point your ignorance of actual history and hysteria takes over.
Dropping the bomb in WW11 was a judgment call one that was questionable at the time should we be 'glad' the US did? Did it save sufficient lives to justify the consequential misery and world paronoia ? Not morally or numerically. It's even questionable that is saved large numbers of American lives or shortened the war by much. How many allied soldiers later suffered from cancers as a result of the bomb? What was the calculation (most of the deaths were non combatants..people)? Why wasn't the bomb dropped on an island of soldiers a Battle group...it would have made the point just as well?
Then again victors always write the history... it’s happened, the genii is out we need to deal with it!
But this Islam drivel is what concerns me most. Firstly, It is not anISLAMthing any more than it’s a CHRISTIAN thing Are you saying that killing a million people is okay so long as they're not American? It certainly appears so. Death in war obscene and particlarly so when it's non combatants. If war is the answer it must have been a imbecilic question. Are you hell bent going to heaven by helping (GWB/RC) to kill other people simply because they’re not of your faith or to control the profits on oil ? Of course not and neither are The vast majority of Muslims.who are essentially the same as you. People are people no matter where they are and are subject to the same ambitions, fears, and loyalties.
True there are rogue elements that espouse jihad but are you saying that there aren't significant elements in the US who aren't following a 'Christian' version of the same thing? Are you saying that their spokespersons "Cheney, Rumsfell et al" didn't/aren't terrifying the world with their version of toxic and lethal paranoia?
Additionally no Islamic country has Jihad or world hegemony as policy. History would suggest that the US does.
You are entitled to an opinion as are we all but if you insist upon vilifying others I would recommend that you consider a bit more objectivity lest you appear as a plain and simple bigot.
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Andris (4 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 532 comments)
on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 6:20:24 PM
The NIE report - trojan horse, wolf in sheep, sneaking in the shadows - what ever. Don't trust it, there's been no dialogue with Iran by Bushies' (as far as we know) and no talk = no communication. As time goes by, the admin is pushing my country closer and closer to nuclear devastation. We need to really pressure hard on Congress, our last resort...
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zephyr (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 43 comments)
on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 12:44:14 PM
No evidence has yet been produced that Iran ever had a nuke weapons program- now that the left and the fake "liberal" media have seized on this NIE to claim Iran is not a threat, it's being claimed that we're all in agreement; they had one, and they can restart it any time.
Look at these remarks made by Gates in Bahrain Dec 8, reported the LA Times
"Iranian leaders have seized on the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate released Monday, saying it is proof that Tehran's nuclear program is intended only for peaceful purposes and should undercut Washington's push for additional sanctions. But Gates, long viewed as one of the administration's more restrained voices on Iran policy, called such assertions "a watershed," saying that if Iran was suddenly embracing U.S. intelligence findings, it was tacitly agreeing to the estimate's other conclusions -- such as Iranian support for regional terrorist groups and its ambitions to develop ballistic missiles that threaten its neighbors. "In reality, you cannot pick and choose only the conclusions you like of this National Intelligence Estimate," Gates said in the conference's opening address. "The report expresses with greater confidence than ever that Iran did have a nuclear weapons program -- developed secretly, kept hidden for years, and in violation of its international obligations."
by
Better World Order (4 articles, 217 quicklinks, 12 diaries, 619 comments)
on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 2:10:05 PM
When this report hit the fan I warned that we should all be cautious with it.
I wondered then that all documents of this type are written in a context. It seems (ed) to me that there was something powerful going on behind the scenes (after all, careers would posibly be at stake). Given this Administration's myopic and absolutist attitudes, a report as seemingly critical of the administration would have retrobutive consequences unless....
It would appear that you may have hit the mark.
It politics there is always an agenda beyond the text.
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Andris (4 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 532 comments)
on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 4:51:32 PM
The trojan horse is the BS that Bushie is putting out about Iran to start another assault upon another middle east country. The investigation should be of the MISS administration.
by
kanawah (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 38 comments)
on Sunday, December 9, 2007 at 9:24:54 PM
