Will Barack choose Hillary to be his running mate, or Ohio Governor Ted Strickland, or NM Gov Bill RIchardson or AZ Gov Janet Napolitano?
Will Joe Lieberman run with McCain... or Condi Rice, or Mitt Romney or TX senator Kay Bailey Hutchison?
It is highly likely that we will not find out for a lonnnggg time, even though the mainstream media are working the story for the drama it contains, with the built up enmity between Barack or, purportedly, Michelle and Hillary.
The thing is, both campaigns have good reason to wait as long as possible before making a decision. If either campgaign chooses a female VP running mate, it puts pressure on the other to do the same.
McCain, with his party's convention held later, definitely has an advantage on this. It is highly likely that Obama will decide first. Once Obama makes his decision, the McCain campaign will be able to choose a VP who can potentially neutralize the Obama ticket demographically.
It is more likely that McCain will go with a white female than a black. The Republican base-- those former southern democrats who left the party after LBJ signed the equal rights amendment-- would have a very hard time dealing with a black. (Yes. I think that too many of them are racists.) That probably rules out Condi. It might put senators Kay Bailey Hutchison (TC) or Susan Collins (ME) or CT governor M. Jodi Rell in play.
The 2008 Democratic National convention runs August 25-28, after the summer Olympics have ended. That's when we'll find out who will be the Democratic Vice presidential candidate and not before.
The 2008 Republican National convention runs September 1-4. That's when McCain will announce his pick, with the advantage of knowing who Obama has chosen.
One thing is highly likely-- if Obama picks a female, whether Hillary or not, McCain will almost be forced to include one on his ticket.
Another thing that's sure is the networks, anchors and pundits will burn up millions of dollars worth of airtime discussing who the VPs will be. They'll interview possible candidates. They'll unsuccessfully ask the Presidential candidates and their surrogates. But this year, we won't get an answer until late August, unless... Obama and Hillary decide to kiss and make up. Then, it is likely that, to maximize the healing, the announcement will come early on.
Once Obama makes his choice, McCain will want to announce his ASAP, to maximize his momentum.
But the other possibility is that Hillary will wait, that she'll sandbag the Democratic party, refusing to concede defeat, even after Obama attains the requisite number of delegates, hoping that something will happen that costs Obama the nomination
That's the scenario I think is most likely, which puts us back into late August to see the VP selections revealed. It's going to be a long, (pundit) hot-air summer.
Want to play around with potential VP candidates? Here's a website that let's you select criteria like red/blue state, religion, gender, area of the US, experience and then you see who comes up.
I took a Pollingpoint poll last week and it asked me "if I would vote for Obama if Senator Webb was his VP". I can't remember who they said for McCain but I recall saying, figures. It seems to me, it was a religious right figure. It asked if I would vote for a Hillary/Obama ticket. My answer, NO!!Webb definitely helps Obama, military wise. I like Webb. Actually Webb may 'one up' the status that Mac has with his military Service history.
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shirley reese (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 592 comments [98 recommended, 1 rejected]) on Tuesday, May 13, 2008 at 7:54:23 PM
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