This moment in history is a bit like a Biblical epic, the forces of light rallying against the forces of darkness, with both sides thinking they are the forces of light. The stakes are high. The issues are clear. This month they reached critical mass. The dark forces are looking stupid and shifty and selfish, but they will fight back. This is where the danger lies.
What has triggered the foggy hint of dawn?
1. The sudden widespread acceptance that human behaviour has screwed up the weather.
2. The growing acceptance that the Coalition has screwed up Iraq, and that those who ordered the invasion are complicit in the deaths of HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of civilians and should be put in the dock.
In most cases, the warmongers not only exaggerated the threat posed by Iraq, they dismissed the threat posed to the environment by global warming. Like flat-earthers, they stuck to their falsehoods in the face of the evidence. Probably because the denial served to advance their careers and/or political agendas. It allowed world leaders to ignore the scientific warnings of death and destruction that lay in the wake of wild weather. The mishandling of war and warming at the highest level is the most catastrophic failure of leadership since 1938, when Neville Chamberlain returned from Munich, fluttering a scrap of paper and said "peace in our time". Six months later, Hitler invaded Czechoslovakia.
RAGE OR TRANSFORMATION?
Despite the extraordinary sea change of public opinion in the past weeks, the policies of George Bush and John Howard remain fossilised. Such leaders will continue to put their own interests above the wellbeing of people and planet. And continue to put "the national interest" above the interest of the world at large.
Why is this?
Because such types – still the majority - have not crossed the threshold into a new way of thinking. They are trapped in a dying paradigm, sinking in a Darwinian swamp, armed with a Newtonian worldview, spouting imperial claptrap. Us against them, etc. An attitude which infects my own prose (and may require therapy); an obstacle to growth, a curse on the world.
Instead of spin, we need dialogue. Instead of hate speak, we need vision and a shared purpose. In a world where admired leaders come up with disgusting weapons, legalised torture and the race to dominate space, how can we create common ground? (Last year Washington spent $416 million on renewable technologies and $75 billion on military research). So many citizens are gearing up to save our eco-systems, yet so many politicians seem only to want to save their skin. (Polls show over 90% of Australians are concerned about global warming and over 60% are prepared to pay more in taxes help).
The new paradigm has arrived, but the old guard are still out to lunch, slugging the last of the wine. And the oil.
A LANDSCAPE OF 5 STAR FORTRESSES
The true motive for invading Iraq was to put a garrison on top of an oilfield – one of the biggest and purest fields in the world. Washington has long been aware that the reserves of oil are diminishing and that world demand is accelerating. According to energy investment banker Mathew Simmons, the current supply of 85 million barrels a day will shrink to almost a quarter of that in 13 yeas. As he told the US Department of Defense in June, "THIS IS A BIG DEAL!" Simmons urges the military to "plan, organize and fight to win the energy war". http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Energy%20Conversation%20BW.pdf
But what kind of energy will be used to fight and energy war? As the era of cheap and abundant fossil fuel declines, hardly a government in the world has a blueprint for total sustainability. At the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio, a clue to US thinking was revealed by President Bush senior: "The American way of life is not negotiable". Meaning? Uncle Sam grabs the world's oil and everyone else lives off potato skins, wearing windmills on their hats.
Richard Neville has been a practicing futurist since 1963, when he launched the countercultural magazine, Oz, which widened the boundaries of free speech on two continents. He has written several books, including Playpower (71), the bio of a global serial killer (79), his sixties memoir, Hippie Hippie Shake (95) and his latest handbook of social change, Footprints of the Future. A social commentator and a professional futurist with a sharp tongue, Richard is based in Australia, where he continues to ?stir the possum?. He recently co-founded a futurist oriented socio-political website: http://www.homepagedaily.com and is a director of the Neville Freeman Agency - http://www.futureshouse.com/
that the paradigm sift expands, and does so rapidly. Many related thoughts come to mind, but I'll limit myself to two:
1. I'm reading Collapse by Jared Diamond, a remarkably detailed account of the collapse of older civilizations. This outstanding author wrote this book with hopes that we might learn from the past, given that indicators of collapse are all around us today. Recommended reading; meanwhile a quote from page 114:
I have often asked myself, "What did the Easter Islander who cut down the last palm tree say while he was doing it?" Like modern loggers, did he shout "Jobs, not trees!" Or: "Technology will solve our problems, never fear, wel'll find a subsititute for wood?" Or: "We don't have proof that there aren't palms somewhere else on Easter, we need more research, your proposed ban on loggins is premature and driven by fear-mongering?" Similar questions arise for every society that has inadvertently damaged its environment.
2. Ricard Neville's article is the second item from "down under" which came across my computer today. The other came in an email, and was related to a water toy I'd been developing for several years. Here's the relevant part:
There is a very bad drought in Australia and people are not allowed to fill their pools which will not be good for pool toys this year unless we get some rain in Australia. This is the worst drought in the history of Australia.
by
Daniel Geery (26 articles, 58 quicklinks, 121 diaries, 690 comments)
on Monday, November 13, 2006 at 11:32:20 AM
global warming is an important issue i agree but all this new world crap on "revitilating the political system ain't going to happen..... just like true marxism has never happened non "political Politicianis" are never gonna exist... sorry to introduce you into the real world
by
kleptomaniac101 (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 3 comments)
on Monday, November 13, 2006 at 3:02:06 PM
I just finished reading Jared Diamond's "Collapse" last week. It followed on an interesting month - a viewing of "An Inconvenient Truth" and my first trip to India for 25 years.
India is "booming" in the narrow sense of Kleptomaniac's "real world" ie the unreal world of economists, the narrowly defined stock market and GDP etc. But I saw a country on the verge of ecological collapse.
In 1981 India was almost pristine in its air quality outside the larger cities. There was no rubbish anywhere. Sure there was plenty of grinding poverty but the countryside and villages were tidy. Recycling, repairing and reusing were a way of life employing millions. The only disposables were banana leaf plates, recycled newspaper wrapping and terracotta tea mugs. Now there are mounds of plastic and aluminium foil bags everywhere - along streets, across fields, blocking drains, clogging rivers and cluttering remaining forests. Many cows, elephants etc are dying of intestinal obstruction from plastic, rivers are dying - the main river to the 14 million of Delhi has just been declared too toxic for drinking - and mosquitos breed in the undisposable garbage.
But the biggest shock was the air. Along the coast and in the south a haze dimmed all views, but from the middle of India all the way north to the Himalayas you really just could not see the sky - a grey smog cloud hangs over all. Few views go more than a couple of kilometres. Its even hard to see the other side of a cricket ground with any clarity - as anyone watching the recent Champions Trophy series would know. I asked if it was seasonal and was told "no, its been like that daily for years". China is reportedly similar.
Wake up Kleptomaniac - Richard Neville, and more to the point Professor Diamond of Geography dept at UCLA, are right - we need a new economic and hence political and social paradigm - if civilization is to see the 22nd century. That is the real world!!
by
ruckrover (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 2 comments)
on Tuesday, November 14, 2006 at 4:37:36 AM
4 comments
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