Heading out to work a late shift tonight, I flipped on my car radio at 1 AM. I hear Russert asking McCain what went wrong, how did it get so bad in Iraq?
McCain, sometimes honest to a fault, said(*) that early looting led to a series of events that are all well documented, for example as described in the book FIASCO.
The clip ended and I realized I was listening to Brian Lehrer (on listener-supported WNYC) who then introduced his guest, Thomas Hicks, author of FIASCO: The American Military Adventure in Iraq, Washington Post Iraq correspondent who has logged more time "in country" then any U.S. policy maker.
This was an amazing interview at a particularly crucial time, on the eve of Bush's State of The Union address and at a time when the violence in Iraq has escalated so horribly, including increasingly brazen attacks, it may well be that the insurgents are completely following DC politics and trying to ruin Bush politically.
As Hicks was explaining, the GOP exodus begun in October led by Senator Warner, the senior Republican member of the Armed Services Committee, usually the bellweather for the GOP Senate majority, also Senator Chuck Hagel, a Vietnam vet already outspoken against Bush's surge, as well as conservative Senator Brownback, one of the top 5 most visible Republicans running in '08, who said his change in heart comes directly after having visited Iraq.
It will be most telling to watch the 21 senators who are up for reelection in '08. Hicks says he pressed Saxby Chambliss after the senator publicly expressed concerns having to defend Iraq policy in a campaign, explaining the situation will be different by 2008, but the senator turned white and shook his head as he considered his prospects if we were still occupying without a major breakthrough.
And what of a breakthrough in Iraq? We are farther then ever today, as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki as recently as last week himself opposed a surge and indeed had requested that US troops pull back, creating a "donut" around Baghdad and allowing Shi'ite led Iraqi forces to "clean things up".
What you say? Bush's troop surge doesn't even have the support of the "puppet" government? Evidently, Maliki and the Shia feel that they've already won the war and want to finish the ethnic cleansing. Shi'ite cleric Muktada al Sadr is said to have militia strength exceeding even that of the Iraqi government force and therefore is pulling Maliki's "real" strings.
Military officials are pessimistic about the "official" government force, believing it to be significantly compromised by not only anti-Sunni warriors, but also anti-US sympathisers, all keeping it on the "down low" - and playing us for dunces as we fund, train and arm them.
This spells disaster for peace and democracy after all this time. Bush is now in the position of diplomatically trying to pull the strings on Maliki. Commander David Petraeus will be his agent for this, bringing a unique credibility as a soldier-diplomat, himself a seasoned Vietnam vet, West Point grad and Princeton PhD.
Petraeus has been the lone success story in Iraq, succeeding to secure Mosul with a combination of transparency and his own line of communication going between his regional command and Syria to keep energy and fiber optic lines flowing, also juggling the presence of thousands of armed Kurds looking to protect their own interests.
In sharp contrast to other commands, Petraeus maintained a zero tolerance policy on detainee abuse. Setting the bar high for military ethics, he ensured MPs trained in detention regulations were the only ones left to watch prisoners and when a report of abuse did surface under his command, he shut down the entire division.
Connecting the dots with Seymour Hersch's revelations of intentional abuse and humiliation enabled by Rumsfeld's Undersecretary Stephen Cambone, this suggests Petraeus would have been trying to root out any operatives given "Operation Copper Green" clearance to divert from standard conduct in interrogations and prevent another Abu Ghraib.
Rather, Petraeus allowed local officials, clerics and professors weekly access to his prisoners, using a brand of transparency and outreach that quelled rumors, reduced reprisals and led to great regional stabilization.
Rumsfeld at one point actually pulled Petraeus out of Iraq for reassignment in Leavenworth, outraging McCain and top brass who felt this was the most able general on the ground. After jettisoning Rumsfeld, it seems Bush eventually came around, pinning another star on Petraeus and sending him in to do what at this point many consider an impossibility.
Churchill famously said that "The Americans can always be counted upon to do the right thing, after they've exhausted every other possibility." Petraeus, whose Princeton degree thesis was titled "The American Military and the Lessons of Vietnam" has reportedly already agreed to operate transparently, allowing full Congressional oversight including closed biweekly briefings.
GW is a proud American from NY State, concerned about media manipulation and overconsumption. He believes in fiscal responsibility, small government and strict ethics. He recently changed careers to become an inner city schoolteacher. A firm proponent of international adoption and curbing overpopulation, he hopes to adopt a third child and enjoys history, "honest" music and art and obscure vinyl records.
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