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Why Obama Will Win and May Have Already

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WHY HE'LL WIN: Money, Media, Momentum, Mobilization, Madness

MONEY

Barack Obama has more money than Hillary Clinton and is likely to bring in more of it.  The money advantage has proved insufficient to Mitt Romney but has benefitted him greatly and will benefit Obama greatly.  Obama will run more ads than Clinton, which will bring in still more money.  News stories will happily avoid any mention of substantive issues by covering Obama's money raising.  He will have the option to avoid debates or engage in them, while Clinton grovels before the likes of Fox News in hopes of generating free coverage, and is forced to put her own money into the campaign from a reserve that is much smaller than John and Theresa Kerry's bank accounts.  Internet activists are going to identify ever more strongly with Obama, because so much of his money is being raised online.  

As the Phoenix <a href="http://thephoenix.com/article_ektid48290.aspx ">points out</a>:

<blockquote>"Most of Obama's money ($34 million of his $58 million) comes from more than 200,000 small donors, who, because they're not even close to having given the maximum $2300 allowed by law, he can tap again and again.  By contrast, a whopping 70 percent of the Clinton's funds have come from donors who have already 'maxed out' and cannot give again. Of the money Clinton has reported to date, only $19 million of her $63 million comes from donors who remain beneath the $2300 ceiling....More than 110,000 of those Obama donors gave $17 million via the Internet. Many other Obama contributors are folks who shelled out $10 or $25 to attend one of his speeches. (Obama continues drawing the largest and most enthusiastic crowds across the country.) Only 45,000 of Obama's 258,000+ donors gave more than $200. That leaves more than 213,000 very small contributors who have effectively rewritten the history of political-campaign funding."</blockquote>

MEDIA


In terms of policy positions, both Clinton and Obama are acceptable to the corporate media, whereas John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich clearly were not.  In personal terms, many members of the media find Clinton as unlikable as do so many citizens on the right and the left.  Enough talking heads with access to the airwaves will take enough glee in Clinton's loss of the lead to enlarge that loss significantly.

MOMENTUM

As Obama's lead becomes apparent, many more people will vote for him because they moronically like backing the winner and always choose to vote for whoever least needs their votes.  The same is true of additional campaign contributions: as they become less necessary, they will flow in all the faster, funding Obama's general election campaign against John McCain.  And as people look ahead to that general election they will pay closer attention to the polls showing that Clinton would lose to McCain whereas Obama would beat him.

MOBILIZATION

One of the reasons Obama swamped Clinton on Tuesday in caucus states is that well organized activists make a bigger difference in caucuses than in primaries.  But Obama is better organized at the grassroots level all across the country and will be better able to turn out large numbers at the primaries and caucuses yet to be held.  Already Obama has won more states and more delegates, and trails only in super-delegates - which are of course some of the least dependable people on the planet and perfectly willing to jump on a different band wagon when they start to sniff the wind direction.

MADNESS

While the left is reaching a consensus that Obama is the lesser of the remaining evils, the right has always been there and views Clinton as evil incarnate.  While recovering racists view Obama votes as therapy, sexists show little hope of recovering.  As bad news from Iraq forces the occupation to the top of the agenda again, those who want peace oppose Clinton as the worst of the Democrats and McCain as the worst of them all, but those who cheer for war will do nothing to help Clinton or McCain, being for the most part obsessed with their hatred of McCain's insufficient cruelty to gays, women, and immigrants.

WHY HE MAY HAVE ALREADY WON

There are several good reasons why Obama may have done better in caucuses than in primaries on Tuesday.  He was better organized, and he focused on those states.  But caucuses are also completely transparent.  The results are completely credible.  Obama took Kansas 74 to 26, Idaho 79 to 17, Colorado 67 to 32, and North Dakota 61 to 37.

Clinton Won the New Mexico primary by 217 votes, but 17,000 voters were forced to vote on "provisional ballots" which won't be counted unless Obama fights for it.  Were he to fight for it, it might reassure voters that he will fight to have their votes counted in November as well.

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http://davidswanson.org

David Swanson is the author of "When the World Outlawed War," "War Is A Lie" and "Daybreak: Undoing the Imperial Presidency and Forming a More Perfect Union." He blogs at http://davidswanson.org and http://warisacrime.org and works for the online (more...)
 

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There are people who haven't been tuned in for... by Joyce McCloy on Friday, Feb 8, 2008 at 1:34:35 PM