November 6, 2006 at 11:21:00

The Final Analysis: How The Senate Looks After Tuesday

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By Bob Geiger (about the author) Page 1 of 4 page(s)

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For OpEdNews: Bob Geiger - Writer

I talked yesterday about the 20 races (of 33) for the United States Senate that have really already been decided, many of which were over before they even started. When you add the expected results from these races to the 67 seats that were not contested in 2006, we stand at 47 seats for the Republicans and 40 for Democrats, with 13 races outstanding.

The conventional wisdom for many months has been that Democrats would need to run the table of all toss-up races to have a net gain of six seats and take control of the Senate.

That's exactly what's going to happen -- here's how:

Arizona: Republican Senator Jon Kyl has a 47 percent approval rating and that's about where it's been for the last two years, so this has always looked like a good pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. And, while Democratic challenger Jim Pederson, the former Chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, has been picking up a lot of momentum in the last month, it's going to be too little, too late.

Kyl has held a steady lead in every major poll and, while Pederson has pulled to within the margin of error on a few isolated surveys, Kyl has consistently led and often by eight points or more. While Kyl was very vulnerable on all of his votes against a minimum wage increase and his extreme closeness to the pharmaceutical companies -- something that doesn't sit well with Arizona's many seniors -- Pederson didn't start capitalizing on that soon enough. Consequently, while Pederson has been closing the gap, Kyl remains in front in recent polling by an average of eight percentage points.

I would love nothing more than to call this for Pederson but there's one day left in this race, not one month, and I don't believe that his recent momentum will be enough to put him past Kyl tomorrow.

Who wins: Jon Kyl (R)

Maryland: Maryland is one of the bluest of the blue states and it takes one hell of a Republican candidate to get past any Democrat, much less one with 20 good years in the House and who has been a popular representative of the state's 3rd district. Democrat Ben Cardin has never been reelected with less than 64 percent of the vote and, despite a strong campaign from Republican Michael Steele, Cardin has led in most major polls over the last three months.

Cardin has also done a great job of never letting Maryland voters forget that Steele was hand-picked by Karl Rove and the White House and that his views on the Iraq war and abortion definitely make him one of Bush's guys.

I don't care how close the polls have been in the last month. Maryland is one of the states least likely to elect a Republican Senator and it damn sure isn't about to happen in a year like this.

Who wins: Ben Cardin (D)

Michigan: We shouldn't even be talking about this race but, no matter how unfair it is, Democrat Debbie Stabenow has, to some extent, had to answer for the harsh effects of the Bush economy on Michigan. She has used television ads almost exclusively to put daylight between her actions as a Senator and an economy that only seems to be helping people who get the big Bush tax cuts.

Also, Stabenow did little in this campaign to point out the excellent work she's done in the Senate on behalf of police, firefighters and other first-responders, which would have given Michigan voters an even better reason to send her back. That said, she's gotten the endorsement of almost every newspaper in Michigan and leads GOP opponent Mike Bouchard by large, double-digit numbers in every recent poll and will win easily -- though not by double digits.

Who wins: Debbie Stabenow (D)

Minnesota: Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar leads her Republican challenger, Congressman Mark Kennedy, 54 percent to 37 percent in Pollster.com's average of the last five major polls. That's about how the entire race has gone no matter what types of attacks Kennedy has thrown at Klobuchar and you can look for Minnesota to send another strong Democrat to Washington on Tuesday.

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