The battle of Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, was the turning point of the American Civil War. On the third day, July 3, 1863, the Confederate Army's failed assault on the Union forces massed on Cemetery Ridge – Pickett's Charge – marked the end of the struggle. Many observers believe the April 22nd Pennsylvania Primary may prove to be the decisive battle in the struggle for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination. Will this be Hillary Clinton's last charge?
On March 28th, Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey defied Governor Ed Rendell's political machine and endorsed Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama. Since that time, tracking polls indicate Senator Clinton's lead over Senator Obama has shrunk. While it is too soon to tell whom the April 22nd winner will be, it seems unlikely that Clinton will achieve the massive, double-digit victory her campaign has predicted. If she doesn't it is unlikely she can overtake his lead in delegates and total popular vote.
Why has an experienced candidate, who was once thought to be the inevitable Democratic nominee, been pushed to the brink of defeat by a candidate who, two years ago, most Americans had not heard of?
In her latest New York Review article, veteran Washington political correspondent Elizabeth Drew dissected the failures of Hillary Clinton's campaign. They bear a remarkable resemblance to the reasons why the Confederate army ultimately failed. In both cases, the campaigns thought victory was inevitable and this myopia caused them to make strategic mistakes. Clinton and the leaders of the Confederacy believed their efforts would be of short duration. Drew noted the Clinton campaign assumed "the race would be over on February 5-Super Tuesday; and [therefore believed] that a number of small states that held caucuses could be skipped." Both Clinton and the Confederacy proved to have inadequate financial resources and, therefore, suffered in a war of attrition. And, both Clinton and the Confederacy had no backup strategy.
Senator Clinton began 2008 as the candidate with experience. After February 5th, this persona fractured and was replaced by a series of images: fighter Hillary, vulnerable Hillary, conciliatory Hillary, confrontational Hillary, and most recently, "Paulette Revere" Hillary. As the aura of inevitability dissipated, her campaign mottoes constantly changed: "Solutions for America," "Change You Can Believe In," "Renewing the Promise of America," "Ready for Change, Ready to Lead," and "In It To Win It." Meanwhile, her financial support dwindled. While Obama's strategy depended on a large number of donors making repeated contributions, Clinton's appealed on a small number making the maximum legal donation. In March, Obama out raised Clinton by 2 to 1 and reported 1,276,000 contributors.
As the contest dragged on, reporters began to question two key claims of the Clinton candidacy. The first was that she had more experience than Senator Obama. The Clinton campaign argued the press had not properly vetted Obama and there were "things in his past" that would cause problems in a general election. However, except for his association with pastor Jeremiah Wright, none have been revealed; Instead, as Elizabeth Drew noted, "His record in the three and a half years he has been [a Senator] suggests someone serious about the job." Reporters then scrutinized Clinton's record. This led to revelations she had overstated her role in negotiating the Northern Island peace accords and fabricated reports she flew into a Bosnia airport under hazardous circumstances. As a result her favorability ratings deteriorated.
The second of Hillary Clinton's claim to be questioned was that her partnership with former President Bill Clinton was an asset: when voters saw her infamous "who do you want to answer the White House phone at 3 a.m." ad, many assumed that in a Hillary Clinton presidency both Hillary and Bill would answer the call. This strategy assumed Democratic voters would continue to have positive feelings about the ex-President. However, beginning with his intemperate remarks in South Carolina, late in January, Bill Clinton's popularity waned.
As each of these difficulties has surfaced, it's raised the question of whether Clinton or Obama would do better in a general election against Republican candidate John McCain. When Hillary Clinton seemed the inevitable Democratic candidate, the conventional wisdom was that she would be stronger. Now many question that assumption. As 2008 progresses, it's become apparent Barack Obama has run a better presidential campaign: he has proven to be a more effective fundraiser; he has run a better get-out-the-vote operation; and he appears to have the better temperament, he has proven to be cooler under fire. After 15 months of relentless pressure, it's Obama who's emerged, looking presidential.
As Hillary Clinton prepares for her last charge up the political hills of Pennsylvania, she'd do well to remember the bitter lesson learned by the Confederate Army at the Battle of Gettysburg: You must control the high ground to win. Unfortunately for Senator Clinton, it's Barack Obama who has taken the high ground and it's too late for her to do anything about that.
Bob Burnett is a Berkeley writer and Quaker actvist. He is particularly interested in progressive morality and writes frequently on the ethical aspects of political and social issues.
Ads seem to be running about 10 to 1 , with Hillary running another three in the morning phone call ad about the economy. Obama on TV and radio it seems every 15 minutes.
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tjb (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 202 comments)
on Tuesday, April 8, 2008 at 8:29:44 AM
We can only hope that her "last charge" will be about as successful as Custer's last stand. Then maybe the Clinton's, and a few others, will know we mean business!
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im4unity (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 45 comments)
on Tuesday, April 8, 2008 at 5:44:36 PM
Jack Smith, thank you for fully sharing why Hillary Clinton is the right and only Candidate to take on the role of President of our Country.
I also am afraid if Hillary does not win, what will happen to our Country, for we are heading in to some major stormy waters, not that we aren't already in those stormy waters but without Hillary and Bill Clinton's expertise to support and lead this great Nation, I wonder how were going to make it as a Country as a People!
Senator Obama, does not have the experience to be President at this time, and I do not think he can win in November against McCain.
The media has treated Ms. Clinton terribly, they almost have a vendetta against her, lord knows I don't know why? What pray tell has she done to them. Perhaps it's quite simply that Senator Obama is the easier of the candidates for Mc Cain to beat in November, and the Corporations want a Republican President, at any cost, and of course we all know the Corporations own the media.
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dianeb 1123398992 (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 7 comments)
on Tuesday, April 8, 2008 at 11:23:44 PM
But it is a reach as far as practical politics '08 goes. This isn't brain surgery.
The reason Hillary is losing is not due to her campaign but the coalition of GOP-owned media, GOP dirty tricks and the Republican/Obama nexus. If you think about it objectively and suppress gender bias, the answers are hardly invisible. Why does the GOP want Obama to be the nominee?
Every misstep by Hillary and her staff is magnified and passed around the talk circuit like a slightly off-color joke. Every invented virtue of Obama, by the same token is merrily chatted-up by these same professional entertainers who fancy themselves serious journalists, generally.
The whole campaign exercise is absurd from Oprah's knighting of Obama to the over-the-top Kennedy bid for a little PR with their passed torch. It offends those of us who remember JFK and MLK to see their names linked to this unqualified, self-promoting neophyte who actually thinks he can run our country. He couldn't even run his Illinois Senate seat without mentoring from highly-placed political associates.
Have you not seen the Washington Post report on how Barack gloms onto initiatives other U.S. Senators sponsor and shepherd through the legislative process, coming in at the end to take credit and demand equal time at the press conference? And that is just one of his intellectual deceits.
I can't believe he is coasting all the way to the White House on the work and experience of fellow politicians. Yet, the polls (which can be easily skewed) are quoted as if nothing untoward is happening. Time to wake up and smell the coffee. Morning in Barack's America might be another nightmare. Hillary is ahead in the popular vote--when the votes are not victims to Rovan roulette. When will We The People get to have a voice in who represents our country?
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Marilyn Frith (6 articles, 0 quicklinks, 4 diaries, 191 comments)
on Wednesday, April 9, 2008 at 8:00:49 PM
You claim the media has given Obama a free ride, then you cite a Washington Post article that's critical of him.
I don't know how Obama's run his Senate office, but he's certainly run a better presidential campaign than Clinton, who started off with a huge lead and blew it in less than a month. Let's face it -- if your strategy is to concede 11 straight primaries before reaching your "firewall," you're too stupid to be president.
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Gregg Gordon (26 articles, 47 quicklinks, 15 diaries, 199 comments)
on Thursday, April 10, 2008 at 4:47:29 AM
Have been at this so long; it seems impossible I haven't made a dent in the wall-to-wall Obama facade.
1) You are not following Keith Olbermann or Chris Matthews at MSNBC? Or McCafferty at CNN? Hillary bashing has become a national sport, right up there with NBA playoffs. And apparently, just as much a potent diversion from personal woes.
2) Taylor Marsh reports that the GOP and Obama goals are in sync; she is a Hillary supporter, but how do you mesh her theories with Paul Street's synopsis at Z Magazine online that Barack is an illusion, a hollow man who has been invented for political purposes? Z is not known for its wild-eyed political views. Who gets to make these decisions in both Parties? Not we voters. Something does not compute.
3)On occasion, facts seep out of the miasma of MS journalism and some reporter gets it right; maybe the Washington Post is catching up to reality, unlike the sycophantic NY Times. I won't quibble over the inconsistency you perceive in my accusation, I will revel in the truth--so seldom do we hear it.(How long into the Vietnam war before the Pentagon Papers were released?) Via la free press!
4) Why are Limbaugh and his clones using the Democratic Party's faultly primary apparatus to manipulate the vote, slanting it to Obama? They take their marching orders from the RNC. Why does the RNC want Obama to be the nominee? Or even the President? What do they know that we are not being advised of? The five big media companies are owned by conservatives (read Republicans) and they have an agenda. That Fox News and Rupert Murdoch have given Hillary token support seems odd; could it be, as Rush has declared, the ploy is to keep the Democratic contest going on as long as possible--thus weakening their run in November? That's more money in the bank for MSM with campaign ads and listener/viewer attention, with more money from commercial advertisers--a vicious circle.
Also, why do the Democrats seem determined to self-destruct? Surely, with all the good men to pick from, why is Obama the choice? John Edwards should have been the one tapped. If they think women will automatically come to his salvation in the general election, they are in for a great big surprise.
As I said, this isn't brain surgery. It is a rigged enterprise. And we are being manipulated like pawns on a chess board. Time to stop the madness. At the very least we should be demanding public financing for all political campaigns. It won't help Hillary but it might be the beginning of real reform. Obama is just another paid shill for plutocrats who seek to control completely, even if it means destroying our democratic republic. Of the three candidates--nurtured on this present system--Hillary Clinton is most qualified and most likely to support change.
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Marilyn Frith (6 articles, 0 quicklinks, 4 diaries, 191 comments)
on Thursday, April 10, 2008 at 2:19:18 PM
