What We've Lost Since Tora Bora

Six years ago, on October 7, 2001, the United States launched Operation Enduring Freedom.  Over the next 78 days, the U.S., working with Afghan allies and bolstered by a coalition of support from around the world, drove the Taliban from power and destroyed al Qaeda’s infrastructure in that country.  But even as a new Afghan interim government was being inaugurated in Kabul that December, Osama bin Laden and several of his key lieutenants were completing their escape from Tora Bora to safe refuge across the border in Pakistan.  Since that point, the United States, despite some sporadic successes, has been gradually losing ground in the “war on terror.”

Measured by the number of terrorist incidents, the threat posed by violent jihadism is more significant now than it was prior to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. It is, most notably, significantly worse than in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 when the American response focused on al Qaeda’s infrastructure in Afghanistan. Even when excluding attacks in Afghanistan, Iraq, and those related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there are more attacks by jihadist groups on an annual basis than at the beginning of the Iraq war. This is a stunning finding given the tremendous activity of jihadist groups in those theaters.

The jihadist movement remains vibrant and dynamic. Early claims about disruption of the al Qaeda network were dramatically overstated. Only five of the twenty-two most wanted terrorists in 2001 have been captured or killed. Though some high ranking al Qaeda members have been eliminated, the organization has been able to promote or recruit members to replace losses.  Furthermore, al Qaeda has expanded its reach globally by forging closer relationships with previously autonomous groups.