November 1, 2006 at 08:40:06

Why Voting for Dems Is Required: Pre-Election Scenarios

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By Bernard Weiner, The Crisis Papers (about the author) Page 1 of 3 page(s)

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For OpEdNews: Bernard Weiner - Writer

OK, let's try to parse this one out. At his press conference last week, Bush hinted at a new flexibility on Iraq, at least with regard to tactics, but announced no new policies; in short, he merely changed the window dressing -- emerging with what E.J. Dionne and others accurately call "stay-the-course lite." So what was really going on?

I see several subtextual agendas in Bush's recent public pronouncements about Iraq:

First, Bush needed to give the impression, pre-election, that his hugely unpopular Iraq policy might possibly be changing in the immediate future. In other words, a snow job for still-reachable conservative Republicans who might want to vote for GOP candidates if only Bush would shift his direction with regard to Iraq.

Short sum-up: Bush isn't shifting. Check out these quotes from that press conference: "Our goals are unchanging. ... Absolutely, we're winning...and we will win, unless we leave before the job is done. ... We have a plan for victory." In short, there will be no real policy shift pre-election and probably not any major shift after November 7 either. Those permanent military bases are there for a reason.

WHO "LOST" IRAQ AND WHO WILL BE BLAMED?

Second, in the likelihood that Iraq totally degenerates and America has to depart quickly, Bush is preparing the 2008 ground for the "who-lost-Iraq?" blame game. It isn't, can't be, the Bush Administration, since their policy, they would have us all believe, is the correct one. So it must be someone else's fault. Here are some likely scapegoats:

The Iraqis. The Maliki government, for good reason, senses that it's being set up to take the fall. The Bush Administration reasoning will be: Well, we gave them the benchmarks and they couldn't meet them, so it's their fault. There will be no admission that the American benchmarks are based on a flawed grasp of what's really happening on the ground in Iraq.

If Maliki gets too far out of line, or continues to prove his ineffectiveness, the CheneyBush Administration could well encourage a military coup to topple him, reminiscent of how the U.S. treated its South Vietnamese government allies in the 1960s and early-'70s. (Bush said of Maliki last week: "We're with him, so long as he continues to make tough decisions," i.e., continues to make decisions in line with U.S. policy.)

When client governments fail to do the U.S. bidding or are unable to do so, the usual practice is to install a more amenable puppet into place. If nothing works and you have to exit the country, you've got one of your handy scapegoats already on the chopping block.

The American People. Another dastardly group that can be blamed for "losing Iraq" is the Democratic Party and, in a broader sense, the American people. The media will be included in this category of scapegoats, since they dared to report bad news of what was happening on the ground in Iraq. Both the Democrats and the media had the temerity to ask embarrassing questions about the wreck that is Bush's war policy, therefore -- and here comes the spin -- they "didn't support the troops" and thus undercut civilian support for the "war on terrorism." In short, "unpatriotic" elements helped the U.S. "lose" Iraq (as if we ever "owned" it) and thus made America less secure. It's "who lost China?" all over again.

The Military. Another scapegoat being groomed for a starring role: the U.S. military. Bush and Rumsfeld claim they always defer to the generals on the ground, though in private they make sure to punish any military officers who venture beyond BushCheneyRumsfeld policy. So it will be "the generals" who got the strategy all wrong, never the occupants of the White House who gave them their marching orders and set the simplistic parameters under which they were forced to work.

In other news:

IRAN WAITING IN THE WINGS

Unless some extraordinary surprise occurs in the days remaining before the November 7 balloting, it seems that the U.S. will not be bombing Iran's fledgling nuclear-research labs. There are no firm indications of such an immediate intent.

But such action might well take place between the election and when the new Congress is sworn-in in late-January of 2007. If the GOP manages to hang on to power in the House and/or Senate, CheneyBush may decide that have a new "mandate," and thus have more free rein to attack Iran.

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Bernard Weiner, Ph.D. in government & international relations, has taught at universities in California and Washington, worked for two decades as a writer-editor at the San Francisco Chronicle, and currently serves as co-editor of The Crisis Papers (more...)

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