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April 20, 2007 at 12:20:17

Has Al Gore's CO2 Theory Fizzled Out? (part two)

by John Doraemi     Page 1 of 2 page(s)

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A Crimes of the State Investigation

In part one I explored some of the countervailing evidence which casts doubt on the current carbon dioxide hysteria. For instance, the CO2 level changes lag behind the temperature changes in the historical ice-core record, sometimes by 800 years.

Recently, the global temperature fell from the 1940s through 1976, even though the CO2 levels (and other "greenhouse gases") were increasing during that same time period. This is an indication that CO2 is not driving the temperature changes (as is commonly believed). If it has any impact at all, it certainly cannot be considered the main driving force.

Changes in the sun's output seem to correlate to the data better. This news has not been met well by some readers.

I also have a correction to the first article. The last paragraph should have read: "Professor Ball states that CO2 is only 0.54 percent of the atmosphere..." These articles are sourced to the British TV documentary The Great Global WarmingSwindle (Google Video). I do not endorse the politics and opinions expressed in this show, especially at the end. It is, however, a source for numerous dissenting voices on this topic.

My character has already been attacked on a "progressive" website for posting this information. I have been accused of having an "agenda" and that I "hate Al Gore", and therefore I was just looking for some way to discredit him (as if I have nothing better to do).

Questions remain however, some of the most pivotal questions of our time concerning man's impact on weather:

Does a rise in carbon dioxide cause a rise in the temperature?

OR, does a rise in the temperature cause a rise in carbon dioxide?

If Al Gore had taken a few minutes to prove his case in An Inconvenient Truth we wouldn't be having this discussion. But Al Gore did not. His data does not show which parameter is influencing which and why. The science is not presented conclusively (or honestly), and therefore Al Gore is to blame by leaving this issue unresolved.

He has posited a theory. It is our right and duty to examine that theory and to scrutinize its flaws.

Earth's Oceans and CO2

It probably would have been easier for readers to comprehend my part one of this series if I had included the role of the oceans in the CO2 equation. The oceans are described as being reservoirs of CO2 gas, and their role depends upon the water's temperature. In hot waters CO2 is emitted (raising CO2 levels in the atmosphere), and in cold waters CO2 is absorbed (lowering CO2 levels in the atmosphere).

"If you heat the surface of the ocean it tends to emit carbon dioxide. Similarly if you cool the ocean surface the ocean can dissolve more carbon dioxide." --Carl Wunsch, Professor of Oceanography, MIT

This process can take centuries and even millenia to occur. The oceans respond very slowly to changes in atmospheric temperature.

"People say, 'Oh I see the ocean doing this last year, that means that something changed in the atmosphere last year.' And this is not necessarily true at all. In fact it's actually quite unlikely because it can take hundreds to thousands of years for the deep ocean to respond to forces and changes that are taking place at the surface." --Carl Wunsch, Professor of Oceanography, MIT

The oceans then provide the mechanism for the theory that rising temperatures cause a rise in carbon dioxide levels (not vice-versa).

These amounts of naturally ocurring carbon dioxide dwarf the amount of CO2 currently produced by humans.

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John Doraemi publishes Crimes of the State Blog: http://crimesofthestate.blogspot.com/

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John Doraemi publishes Crimes of the State Blog:
http://crimesofthestate.blogspot.com/

johndoraemiJohn Doraemi publishes Crimes of the State Blog:
http://crimesofthestate.blogspot.com/

UPDATE

A reader pointed out that the "Great Global Warming Swindle" has had its share of controversy, and has been accused of faking some of its data.

In my further research I have found countervailing evidence regarding the net effects of oceans on the CO2 levels.  Particularly, the oceans have been said to be absorbing more CO2 than they emit -- not sure how one asseses the CO2 content of an ocean, or how accurately these things can be measured.  This may falsify one of the theories put forth in the film.  It may not.  Only one study was cited.

More strkingly, the global warming side has admitted that there is a lag in the CO2 changes AFTER temperature changes in ice core records.  This I did not expect. 

There must be another mechanism other than CO2 (and methane apparantly) that can warm the earth for centuries without raising the levels of these gases (water vapor is the earth's main "greenhouse gas," not CO2).  So, some of what is charged in the Swindle program is true.  The specific hypotheses may be wrong, but some of the observations are startling and fly in the face of the conventional wisdom.

This is a highly complex area, and more study is needed.   

What is NOT needed are more nuclear plants.

click here

by johndoraemi (17 articles, 12 quicklinks, 6 diaries, 170 comments) on Friday, April 20, 2007 at 5:54:14 PM
 


I am a retired civil servant. I was an electronics technician.
BarkerI am a retired civil servant. I was an electronics technician.

Al Gore and CO2

Mr John Doraemi,

Thank you for your commentary on carbon dioxide and temperature.
We obviously need a sane rational approach to life. For example, I subscribe to CSI-COP, the Committee for the Scientific Investigation of Claims Of the Paranormal.
We all agree on one point; we must end our dependence on foreign oil. Whether using petroleum heats the planet is a matter of opinion but the root of the funding for Islamic terrorism is not.
What can we do? I am doing my part to make this world a better place when I leave. I have no children, and plan on one child and adoption. I believe I can make a difference adopting chilrdren from poor nations.
I eat meat sparingly and save resources, including petroleum, water and land.
Living a life of peace is helping me make a positive difference.

by Barker (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 111 comments) on Friday, April 20, 2007 at 6:06:36 PM
 


Emily saw her first article in print 71 years ago. Subsequently, twenty-six earned awards. Mike Lowry, Stew Udall, then Secretary of the Interior, read her work in Congress Recently, Emily stopped when a voice called, ?Wait, I know who you are!? The caller explained, ?When I was 6 years old and my brother was 12, we spent Sunday morning sprawled on his bed reading your column. Now when I can?t stand the world as it is, I read them again.Grasping Emily's hand, she whispered."Thank you.? In 19...

to see more of bio, click on member name

emily horswillEmily saw her first article in print 71 years ago. Subsequently, twenty-six earned awards. Mike Lowry, Stew Udall, then Secretary of the Interior, read her work in Congress Recently, Emily stopped when a voice called, ?Wait, I know who you are!? The caller explained, ?When I was 6 years old and my brother was 12, we spent Sunday morning sprawled on his bed reading your column. Now when I can?t stand the world as it is, I read them again.Grasping Emily's hand, she whispered."Thank you.? In 19...

to see more of bio, click on member name

What's thisabout oceans?

What's this gabble about Global Warming and OCEANS. Forests, trees, are obviously the other half of our lungs: take a deep breath in a forests and you can smell the ozone. Try that in water!

Scientists say a tree harbors carbon dioxide and provides oxygen. I am willing to listen. But

Save the forests and you will have oxygen, water and, under the canopy, shade and shelter and you can walk on it. It is said that Christ walked on water, but I can't, and I am the one of us interested in a livable climate. I am also the one I am interested in.

by emily horswill (5 articles, 0 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 64 comments) on Saturday, April 21, 2007 at 4:41:51 AM
 


Longtime Libertarian. 46 year old computer programmer from California
ARichardWatsonLongtime Libertarian. 46 year old computer programmer from California

CO2 Levels start increasing in 1976

Coincidentally, CO2 levels would have begun to be exacerbated by the rise of the catalytic converter.    The catalytic converter converts the more toxic elements of exhaust to CO2.  At the time, CO2 was considered benign.  I cover some of this here at opednews in Political Science 101

Thanks,

aw

by ARichardWatson (5 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 16 comments) on Saturday, April 21, 2007 at 7:49:34 PM
 


The earth is a good place and we should take care of it.
PleruThe earth is a good place and we should take care of it.

Nope

I can't participate on the level of Buckley and Doraemi, but common sense tells me that when cities are filled with SUV engines radiating heat, by blacktop parking lots, by megatons of emissions spewing every day, by heat from furnaces and air conditioners, that we are heating up the atmosphere. You called the idea that CO2 is a greenhouse gas weak science but I didn't see a counter theory. If it's a green house gas then if you make more you get more warming. The earth is a living system and when you poison that system you create problems, like the human body. I think we should heal the earth rather than bash Al Gore.

by Pleru (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 10 comments) on Monday, April 23, 2007 at 8:21:38 AM
 


John Doraemi publishes Crimes of the State Blog:
http://crimesofthestate.blogspot.com/

johndoraemiJohn Doraemi publishes Crimes of the State Blog:
http://crimesofthestate.blogspot.com/

Response

"You called the idea that CO2 is a greenhouse gas weak science but I didn't see a counter theory. If it's a green house gas then if you make more you get more warming."

The "weak science" was directed at a particular post.   It might surprise you to learn that the most prevalent and by far more effectual greenhouse gas is water vapor.  95% of greenhouse effect is water vapor.  The popular mythmakers would lead one to believe that 95% is CO2.  That is why I want to get to the bottom of these hysterical fights, and I do not trust the political leaders of any stripe on this or most any other issue.
 

"The earth is a living system and when you poison that system you create problems, like the human body."

 I have no problem with that.  The problem iswhen you call carbon dioxide a "poison" and when you create massive new international bureaucracies to put crippling taxes oneveryone who uses carbon (like people going to work, slaving away to feed their families every day).  The problem is greenlighting new nuclear power plants, and the problem is using the last of our valuable topsoil to grow ethanol while billions starve to death.  This is not a simple issue, and it has not shown to be directly caused by CO2 at all.  That is why I remain skeptical.  CO2 may be a factor, but it is certainly not the greatest factor, or the factor with the most impact.

I do not believe CO2 has caused a significant temperature rise (which is attributed solely to greenhouse gases in the popular press), and  the temperature may have naturally risen by some amount on its own.  There was a "little ice age" that just ended in the 1700s.  Certainly the optimal global temperature isn't in an "ice age" range.  These corrections have happened forever on this planet, without the effect of people burning fossil fuels.  Until the reasons are completely understood for temperature changes NOT caused by CO2 (as in the ice core record), then claiming such certainty about the global effects of CO2 seems dishonest and an overstretch, to me.

"I think we should heal the earth rather than bash Al Gore."

What exactly have you done to "heal the earth?"

Al Gore did nothing when the Clinton regime opened up large tracts of public forests to clearcutting in the 1990s.  He didn't just magically descend from heaven to tell us about Global Warming.

 I've been looking into the earth's temperature record to try and get a handle on exactly where we are.  It will scare the crap out of a lot of people if you do the same and go over to Wikipedia to see the last 5 million year's worth of temperature data.  It turns out this is one of the coolest periods on record and is still considered a glacial period (poles).  This will inevitably change.  During the time of the dinosaurs, for example, it was more than 21 deg. F hotter globally.  (Without people burning fossil fuels to take the blame.)

So if the temperature can fluctuate naturally in so great a range, we need to understand the real mechanism that can have such great effects.  

This is a scientific AND a POLITICAL issue (opportunity). It should be met with a high degree of skepticism and scrutiny.

By all means "heal the earth."  Stop polluting and wasting.  Walk and ride a bike.  Stop overbreeding. 
Develop  truly  alternative energies like solar, wind and tide.  But don't speak for me.  Don't assume I want a global carbon big brother scheme, and don't assume I accept whatever Al Gore says at face value.

 

 

 

 

 

by johndoraemi (17 articles, 12 quicklinks, 6 diaries, 170 comments) on Monday, April 23, 2007 at 7:06:11 PM
 

 

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