" Two words: Kathleen Sebelius.

There are a lot of opinions on why Hillary Clinton is staying in the race at this point.

Maybe you buy her campaign’s reasoning.  That every vote should be counted.

Personally I find that a disingenuous sort of campaign angle.  If the math were viable, sure – I could see it.  But as it stands there is no path to victory for her without counting Michigan and Florida as they stand.  That is really ugly to all but a Clinton partisan.  Not only did she agree on them not counting from the start, but Obama wasn’t on the ballot at all in Michigan and in Florida he was still largely unknown and Clinton benefited from name recognition.

If she had never agreed to the DNC’s rules, if there was some semblance of fairness to either election, and if the majority of democrats at large though it was a good idea to let states stomp all over the national party as they pleased as far as timing of their primaries – a very different sort of situation.

But as it stands the Michigan/Florida argument is a perfect example of why folks simply don’t like her.  She is willing to drive wedges in the party, to use words like “let every vote count” to push her agenda even when it is clear to anyone but one of her supporters that it is a desperate angle, and that it sends out a vibe of unprincipled ruthlessness.

I have seen some comments that this is because we aren’t used to seeing strong women and men are turned off by it.

No, that isn’t it.  Not for this fellow.

My mentor in civic politics is female.  The best manager I ever had professionally was female.  I’ve wound up working closely with many a female that I defer to with great respect.

No.  It is Hillary herself.

Now, let’s take this “let every vote count” Clinton campaign reason for staying in the race off the table.

The other major reasons people believe she is in the race:  

She thinks Obama could still stumble badly enough to swing the super delegates her way  

She thinks Obama might become indisposed

My view is she fears Kathleen Sebelius could end her presidential aspirations forever and so is truly desperate

Let’s say that Kathleen Sebelius and not Hillary Clinton wound up on the ticket this year, that they lost, and that Sebelius weathered the campaign well.

She could take the nomination away from Clinton in 2012.  Handily.   Hillary would be forced to run on having had the nomination “stolen” you see.  Sebelius as a red state governor would take away her “working man” angle out of the gate, and by virtue of being one of the very best governors in the country (in real ways) brings executive experience Hillary just doesn’t have.  A fresh face that got there under her own steam, etc.

Do the mental math on it and Hillary would have to run as the woman scorned in 2008 you see.  Or on national experience, which her Iraq vote and America’s preference for Washington outsiders will squelch.

No, I think anyone looking at a Sebelius – Clinton primary match up in 2012 would say Clinton would very likely be defeated handily.  I think if she were on the ticket this time around then it would be a landslide.  But could still take her regardless.

And if I see it, I think Hillary Clinton sees it.

So I think this is about building her brand, getting as many people to carry her torch in case Obama loses this time around to face the Sebelius challenge.

But it is Sebelius and others like her that Hillary fears.  She sees the writing on the wall, and is not satisfied at having taken a large chunk out of the glass ceiling single handedly.

And so she sees this in permanent terms.  Senate majority leader and NY governor are three steps back in her mind from the prize, and she sees her chances not of just this shot but all in the future dimming.  And the triangulation is falling apart as the darkness closes in on all sides.

I feel sorry for her; she has put up the good fight.  She has done a lot for women. 

But she has done herself no favors the last month in my view, for the long term.  In fact she has done all the right things to open the door for Obama to offer Sebelius the spot on the ticket rather than her. 

The writing is on the wall."