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October 18, 2007 at 12:49:28
An Inconvenient Truth For Democrats by SteveDenning Page 1 of 2 page(s) |
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Al Gore’s Nobel Peace Prize is a reminder that on any rational basis he should have won the 2000 election. The country was at peace and enjoying unprecedented economic prosperity. Crime rates were declining. There were major foreign policy accomplishments. Gore himself was one of the few vice presidents in history to have made a substantive contribution to an administration. And unlike most U.S. vice presidents, he had the strong, explicit backing of the then president, Bill Clinton, whose policies, despite a sex scandal, remained remarkably popular. And Gore, who had 24 years of national and international experience, was facing a candidate who had no national or international experience. He should have won by a mile. So why did he lose? Long before the Supreme Court intervened in Florida, Gore had put himself in a position to lose the election by failing to understand the language of leadership.
One element was his inability to communicate who he was and what he stood for and who he was communicating to:
· Gore wasn’t clear on the story of why he should be president: Did Gore support the policies of the Clinton administration or was he going to fight to change those policies? These ambiguities showed through to the electorate and undermined everything he said.
· Gore wasn’t comfortable with his own story: In 2000, Gore wasn’t comfortable with who he was and what he stood for. Was he an associate of Bill Clinton or not? What sort of a person was he? In the debate, he was articulate and knowledgeable, but didn’t seem at ease with himself.
The other element was that Gore was unable to connect with the electorate and communicate a compelling narrative as to why he should be elected:
· Gore failed to get the electorate’s attention: “I’m not,” said Gore toward the end of the first presidential debate, “a very exciting politician.” When Gore said those words, it wasn’t news: he was confirming what his critics had often said about him. But he was revealing something fatal in a transformational leader. He was conceding that even he wasn’t fully convinced in himself as a leader. If Gore wasn’t excited about his own candidacy and his change agenda, how could he expect the electorate to be?
· He didn’t stimulate the electorate’s desire for change: Gore ran for election as a transformational leader. Instead of dwelling on the question, by analogy with Ronald Reagan in 1980, “Are you better off today than eight years ago?” he asked “Will we be better off four years from this day?” For most voters, the answer to the first question would have been a resoundingly positive “Yes!” The answer to the second question was much less certain. While Bush generally embraced the successful economic policies of the Clinton administration, paradoxically Gore ran as someone who wanted to change policy. He presented himself as someone who wanted to fight and the electorate was in no mood for more partisan fighting.
· His reasons didn’t resonate: In the presidential debates, Gore was more articulate than Bush. He kept giving reason after reason, statistic after statistic, without realizing that when people don’t like you as a person, the more reasons you give, the more your reasons will be perceived as problematic. According to all the news services, Gore was the clear winner of the first presidential debate, but it didn’t matter: Bush surged ahead in the polls and went on to victory.
· His body language contradicted what he said: In the U.S. presidential campaign of 2000, Al Gore’s robotic performances were the fodder of late-night comedy. The charisma-challenged candidate put everyone to sleep. His petulant sighs and stiffly aggressive manner made him look like the smart kid we all hated in eighth grade. No one wanted to listen to what he had to say. Despite a strong case on the merits, he lost the election.
THE EERIE PARALLEL BETWEEN 1999 AND 2007Now, eight years later, we have an obvious front-runner for the Democratic nomination. She enjoys many of the same advantages as Gore:
But she also suffers from the same handicaps:
· As a good student who does her homework and is articulate in debates, Hillary has not found a way to make herself likable. She has been unable to communicate what sort of a person she really is and what she really believes in.
· Like Gore, Hillary generally makes her case through abstract arguments, discussing and analyzing problems and proposing solutions. This leaves an audience dazed rather than inspired. It fails to engage them at an emotional level. Like Gore in 2000, she tends to sound mechanistic and bureaucratic.
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An interesting take on a national election, or two
The 2000 election was most noteworthy because of the absence of a wildly popular President in support of his own VP now running for the vacant job. I believe that, despite the flaws of the Gore campaign, and they were noteworthy, despite the damn wooden appearance all too often of the candidate, it was this absence that most impacted the race. He lost to George Bush for gosh sakes! Of course one has to insert the obligatory ," Gore actually won and his victory was snatched from him blah blah". I do believe it, really , but history has been written and we move on. The single most annoying thing I got from this piece is the assumption, and it is a correct one, that the election is a popularity contest, it is a race to gather the most money, it is a contest between those who strive to mouth the most platitudes, make the least meaningful speeches and that we the people want it that way...BAH! We do get the government we deserve. by ardee D. (6 articles, 4 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 2377 comments) on Thursday, Oct 18, 2007 at 8:09:16 PM
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Authencity
Ardee, Thanks for your comment. However the basic assumption of the piece is the opposite of what you assume. In 2000, Gore was so busy trying to appease different parts of the electorate, that he forgot to think through who he was and what he really believed in. It was when he set this pandering to popular opinion aside and started saying what he really believed and what he stood for that he started to connect with people. That's the issue with the lead candidate today. It's a question of authenticity. Who is she? What does she stand for? What does she believe in? Can she communicate that compellingly to the electorate? If she is perceived as focused mainly on calculating what will work with which segment of the electorate, then she risks suffering the same fate as Gore. by SteveDenning (10 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 11 comments) on Thursday, Oct 18, 2007 at 9:12:54 PM
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Reply: Aint gonna happen
In a political climate wherein every word of every speech is poll driven, where every plank of the platform is carefully crafted to appear one thing to the voter and quite another to the campaign contributor your request for principled honesty is fallen upon deaf ears. I honestly believe that what you seek from a candidate can only be found in the third party world. by ardee D. (6 articles, 4 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 2377 comments) on Friday, Oct 19, 2007 at 8:44:23 AM
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Reply: We get what we expect
Ardee, If we expect the worst, that's what we'll get. If we insist on principle and authenticity, then there is a chance, perhaps not a large chance, but nevertheless a chance, that we'll get it. by SteveDenning (10 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 11 comments) on Friday, Oct 19, 2007 at 8:59:37 AM
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Gore did not lose in 2000, and...
First of all, every press recount of the Florida vote showed that by any methodology, Gore won Florida. The American public were slapped in the face by a Supreme Court that cited "irreparable harm" to George W. Bush as a justification for halting the vote count in Florida and awarding the presidency to someone who had not earned it and did not deserve it. What about the irreparable harm to Gore done by failing to count all votes? What about the clearly unconstitutional decision NOT to count votes? What about the complete disregard for state's rights and legal process in Florida? What about the civil rights of Florida voters? As a second point, I must remind the author of the disgraceful treatment of Gore by the national mainstream media. How could anyone hope to establish a positive message or image with the distortions and lies constantly broadcast in the most snide and sophomoric manner? It was like a pack of jealous prep school wannabes piling on the valedictorian. If you need a reminder or convincing, please read Paul Krugman's article, "Gore Deragement Syndrome." by nellie blogger (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 3 comments) on Thursday, Oct 18, 2007 at 10:14:52 PM
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Reply: Did Gore Lose?
I agree, Nellie, that you can point fingers at the Supreme Court and at the national media and think, "If only..." However long before the Supreme Court got into the act, Al Gore was setting himself up to lose by having failed to master the basics of the language of leadership. Like Gore in 1999, Hillary is said to be charming and personable in small groups. But unless and until she can learn how to project that a larger audience, she will remain a very vulnerable presidential candidate. As the example of Al Gore shows, this is not a particularly difficult problem to solve. However she needs to solve it before the election, not after. by SteveDenning (10 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 11 comments) on Friday, Oct 19, 2007 at 6:05:38 AM
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Reply: Gore lost by not winning big enough
I think Steve is essentially right here. While Gore may have had a tight and close electoral race (the popular race was anything but) stolen from him by the Supreme Court, there is no reason it HAD to be that close. Had Gore run a better race, he would have TROUNCED Bush in the popular count and been far enough ahead in the electoral count that just stealing Florida wouldn't have been enough for Bush. Greg Palast said this in a speech before the 2006 election: "We have to win it so big that they can't steal it." This will be the same in 2008, and if the Democratic Candidate can't have all the progressives, all the left of centers, all of the centers, and some of the right of centers in their camp, then they are doing something wrong. The "base" of the criminal, lying, cheating, stealing, immoral Rethuglican Party is around 25%. Add to that another 10% that can be gotten through bribary and lying, and they should get 35% in the next election. If the Democratic Candidate is dull, centrist, uninspired, and poll-driven, they will give the Rethuglicans the additional 12% they need to get up to 47% where they will be well within the "margin of theft." Look for another 51% victory by the Rethuglicans and the beginning of the end of civilization as we know it. by Charlie L (2 articles, 4 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 747 comments [2 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Friday, Oct 19, 2007 at 1:23:34 PM
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GOP will lie, cheat, and kill to be power
Maybe Democrat's could do things differently. But, I blame the MSM and 4th Estate for the loss of these elections. The GOP will lie, cheat, and kill to stay in power. They will attack a Democrat's strengths and turn them into weaknesses. This strategy only works with a compliant media. The GOP is in power because they cheat to stay in power. For all of Scalia's "originalist" constitutional arguments, at the end of the day SCOTUS invented a one-time decision to get "their guy" in power. The media never questioned, scrutinized or investigated with zeal the Bush naratives (National Guard Service, Harken, drunk driving, missing records, cocaine use, etc.). He got a free pass. The only language problem that exists is the publication of the truth. Whether it is the honest sentiments of the troops, or the citizens of Iraq. It's okay to out secret agents, torture, treat people in USA custody inhumanely, as long as its outside our borders. The will of the people has been traded to a mere handfull of media conglomerates. And that's the language of money and power. by sdk (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 7 comments) on Friday, Oct 19, 2007 at 1:21:49 AM
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Reply: The fault does not lie in our stars
It’s easy, sdk, to blame those those shameless Republicans or the Supreme Court, and they certainly played their role in Gore’s defeat. But the fact is that Gore set himself up to lose. He had every possible advantage going into the election, except that he was an unlikeable candidate who wasn’t sure who he was, someone who tended to fudge the facts, someone who didn’t connect with the electorate. by SteveDenning (10 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 11 comments) on Friday, Oct 19, 2007 at 6:19:45 AM
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right and right
Yes, commenters are right that the electon was stolen by the Supreme court traitors to democracy. Yes, the media was not fair to Gore. But if Gore had done as Steve suggests, as Gore finally woke up to-- being a leader, true to his principals, rather than trying to pander... then Gore would have resonated with the voters far more and the Supremes would not have had the opportunity to decide an election that was so close. Gore would have won in a landslide. Now, the question is, which candidates meet the leadership criteria. Lately, I've been unsuprised by Hillary's failure to meet it, disappointed by Obama's unwillingless to meet it and surprised by Chris Dodd's repeated straight out leadership, again and again, in the senate, taking stands. John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich have also done a great job. What's your take? by Rob Kall (952 articles, 4177 quicklinks, 374 diaries, 2087 comments [45 recommended, 3 rejected]) on Friday, Oct 19, 2007 at 7:36:03 AM
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Reply: Gore/Hilary
Before Al Gore was a VP he chaired a meeting of physicists around the world. An East Indian scientist came home to his wife from the meetings (my physician at time she tells me this account )and made this statement. "I believe I have met a future president of the US! He not only was an exceptional listener but he could converse with us on our subject!" A very intelligent man. Unfortunately, like Bob Dole, he appeared wooden and stiff. Only twice have i appeared on TV in my life, and it was a gruesome experience. Those lights are horrid. Couldn't wait to get off the show. But then again, TV does not tell the truth. It has conditioned the public to look for looks, charisma, and showmanship.(no one saw the fear and infantilisim behind Bush's facade?). Thank goodness TV was not around when Abe Lincoln was elected. Granted, Gore may have had other flaws, but SO WHAT in comparison to his intelligence,international expertise, and many other accomplishments. Too bad GWB's resume wasn't circulated at time of election. TV does not reveal The truth. Dennis Kucinich has spark, fiestiness,honesty, hard worker, has been poor, and has courage to walk his talk. So does Gravel and Ron Paul. These three are the true representatives of our great nation and who speak truly for the people of this nation.So does Edwards.I am weary, and have been for months now, to read of the vast sums of money raised by these people. I seek a president with moral courage, intelligence, honesty, who has definite goals, plans, ideas, solutions for our ills and who states them clearly, consistently. I am not voting for fundraisers. Let the top runners join PR firms. Give me a Kucinich/Gravel, Kucinich/Edwards, or Gravel anyday. Obama should have waited until 2012, and Hilary is as article describes her. She reminds me of the story of the Turtle and the Hare. Up front, winning far too early too fast. Who will be the Turtle? by Joyce (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 17 comments) on Friday, Oct 19, 2007 at 10:20:11 AM
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Reply: Which candidate has leart the language of leadership?
Rob You ask which candidate is speaking the language of leadership? The first, and often the most difficult, story to get straight, is the leader's own story. For any kind of enduring enthusiasm to emerge, this story must "hang together" -- be consistent with the known facts -- and the leader must believe in this story intensely and act consistently with it. As we look at some of the candidates, we see obvious problems on this front. Edwards: How does he reconcile his interest in helping the poor and sensible energy policy with his 28,000 square feet house? Clinton: What are her real goals in life? Is it: "We're in it to win it." What does she feel most intensely about? How does she feel about Bill? What is her life about? Is it about winning? Or something else? In both these cases, the question is: Is there an authentic story that the candidate could tell that could put the disparate pieces of their life together in a coherent fashion? Or is this just another politician bobbing and weaving to win the nomination and the election? What's his/her story? Once the candidate's own authentic story is in place, then one can move on. But while this story is still fuzzy, and the candidate's commitment to it, unclear, or the actual behavior inconsistent with it, we never really get to first base. With these kind of issues lurking in the background, it's going to be hard for them craft any story that will generate enthusiasm for their cause. by SteveDenning (10 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 11 comments) on Friday, Oct 19, 2007 at 12:17:57 PM
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