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Polls Should Favor Obama from Now On

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Polls Should Now Consistently Favor Obama About | Popular | Superdelegates | Predictions | Polls | Game Though Hillary Clinton managed to benefit from a poll burst in the last week, I am predicting that from today (Friday) on Barack Obama will lead in major polls comparing him and Clinton against each other and against John McCain. I will further predict that Hillary Clinton's 26 point lead in Pennsylvania will be reduced by about a point a day between now and the April 22 primary. My reasons for the prediction are:1. Today's Richardson endorsement signals the likely resumption of what I have called superdelegate anarchy. This will build a gradual momentum as Barack's total of superdelegates continues to inch up to achieve PARITY with Hillary's superdelegate total which now stands at 250.

2. The unravelling of the Jeremiah Wright character assassination campaign by FOX will continue to induce and appropriate realignment of views as the idea of a conversation about race takes hold and as Barack is credited with making that conversation possible and likely to lead to good results.

3. The achievement of a substance gravitas on Barack's side will reinstate him in the eyes of the electorate as fully Presidential. This will hopefully be buttressed by a continual minimizing of grousing about the Clintons -- they should be treated as past and on their way out.

4. The attention of news media on the State Department gaffes in relation to Barack's passport files will remind the electorate that it is Barack who is the major candidate and this will combine with point two to turn things more to point three.

5. The prospect of more significant endorsements. I can see Carter and Gore stepping up in the nearer term. One or the other would be significant. There is also the liklihood that Edwards will NOT endorse Clinton. If he endorses Obama it will naturally help.

6. The fruition of my predicted no-revote ideas will delay the problem of Michigan and Florida. The more Clinton forces protest, the more desperate they will appear. Even the MSM understands that the fault for this disaster lies with the states themselves. The Florida decision was pushed by BOTH the Obama and Clinton forces. Michigan under its Governor has been impotent and hopeless for months. The result will be to make the Obama math better.
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7. The sum total of the last two weeks has the positive result of our getting to know Barack more. And understanding that he like us has feet of clay. This is all to the good. The revelation of Obama as a true uniter in his Tuesday speech and the personal elements of that speech and of other more personal Obama appearances has also helped in the getting to know you department.

To summarize, Barack is back on track and the Hillary Surge such as it has been is OVER.

And the upshot could be the completion of this process sooner than later, possibly within the month of April and even prior to Pennsylvania.
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Born in NYC, attended Oberlin & Trinity Schools, then Exeter and Williams (Phi Beta Kappa 1958). Worked with the Reverend James Robinson, finished Union Theological Seminary in NYC (1961). Joined Student Interracial Ministry in Nashville. Founded (more...)

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