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February 4, 2008 at 05:37:32
Zogby Poll: Obama Soars Past Hillary in CA, by Rob Kall |
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Polls are looking good for Obama as Hillary loses the big lead she's held for most of the primary season. Is Bill Clinton Hillary's biggest liability, instead of the asset most assumed? Sure looks that way as Hillary falls while Obama rises. Pollster John Zogby: "A very big single day for Obama in California (49%-32% over Clinton) and Missouri (49%-39% single day). In California, Obama has widened his lead in the north and pulled ahead in the south. He leads among Democrats and Independents, liberals and moderates, men (by 21 points),among whites, and African Americans. He holds big leads among voters who say Iraq and immigration are their top concerns. Clinton holds a big lead among Hispanics (though Obama has made some inroads), women, voters over 65, and has pulled ahead among those citing the economy. "In Missouri, Obama leads two to one in the St. Louis region, and has solid leads with independents, voters under 50, and African Americans. He also leads among Missouri women. Clinton leads among whites and has big leads in the Kansas City and southwestern region. "New Jersey tied in the single day as well as three-day. It is razor thin close in all regions. Obama has 12 point leads among Independents and men, while Clinton is up by 12 among women. Obama has a 25 point lead among young voters, while Clinton leads among older voters.
| Democrats | 2/1-3 | 1/31-2/2 |
| Obama | 46% | 45% |
| Clinton | 40% | 41% |
| Gravel | <1% | <1% |
| Someone else | 5% | 6% |
| Undecided | 9% | 9% |
| california poll | Gender | AgeGroup | AgeGroup-B | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Male | Female | 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-24 | 25-34 | 35-54 | 55-69 | 70+ | |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Hillary Clinton | 40.4 | 33.3 | 46.9 | 32.3 | 39.1 | 42.3 | 46.4 | 20.1 | 43.5 | 39.0 | 41.9 | 47.4 |
| Michael Gravel | .2 | .2 | .2 | .3 | .3 | .5 | ||||||
| Barack Obama | 46.0 | 54.3 | 38.3 | 58.5 | 47.4 | 46.8 | 36.9 | 73.6 | 43.9 | 48.5 | 45.3 | 35.8 |
| Someone else | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | |||
| NS | 8.5 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 10.3 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Zogyy reports,
"Obama’s lead over Clinton in California grew by two points, with 46% saying they would support him, compared to 40% for Clinton. Obama had a four-point lead over Clinton among white voters, with 45% of their support to her 41% support. Black voters liked him four-to-one over Clinton (72% to 16%), while Hispanics preferred the former first lady, giving her 55% support to his 36%. The survey included 967 likely voters and carried a 3.2 point margin of error. "
Missouri - Democrats
| Democrats | 2/1-3 | 1/31-2/2 |
| Obama | 47% | 43% |
| Clinton | 42% | 44% |
| Gravel | <1% | 1% |
| Someone else | 3% | 3% |
| Undecided | 9% | 10% |
Zogby: Obama leapfrogged over Clinton in Missouri, gaining four points while she dropped two points to end the tracking period with 47% support to her 42%. Clinton continued to lead among white voters with 48% of their support to Obama’s 40%, while Obama had a four-to-one margin over Clinton with African American voters, with 72% of their support to her 18% support. The survey included 851 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/-3/4 points.
| Region | Party | Likelihood | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Kansas City | Sw | St Louis Metro | Other | Democratic | Republican | Independent | Def Democrat | V lkly Dem | |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Hillary Clinton | 42.0 | 48.1 | 52.4 | 30.3 | 50.4 | 44.3 | 27.1 | 38.1 | 41.6 | 43.2 |
| Michael Gravel | .2 | .7 | .2 | .2 | .6 | |||||
| Barack Obama | 46.5 | 41.0 | 31.9 | 59.3 | 38.2 | 44.4 | 63.8 | 49.3 | 47.2 | 44.4 |
| Someone else | 2.5 | 1.8 | .8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| NS | 8.8 | 9.1 | 14.2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 8.8 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
Note the huge difference between Obama and Clinton among Republicans. Will some support Obama? And this may support the claims that a Clinton candidacy will drive Republicans to the polls to oppose her.
Georgia - Democrats
| Democrats | 2/1-3 | 1/31-2/2 |
| Obama | 48% | 48% |
| Clinton | 31% | 28% |
| Gravel | 2% | 1% |
| Someone else | 10% | 10% |
| Undecided | 11% | 13% |
Zogby: Obama was still well ahead in Georgia in the second tracking poll, with 48% support to Clinton’s 31% support. African-Americans, who made up half the sample, preferred the Illinois senator, giving him 67% of their support to Clinton’s 18%. Clinton attracted 43% of white support, compared to Obama’s 30%. Obama was also ahead among women, getting 47% of their backing to Clinton’s 32%. The Georgia Dems survey included 864 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.
New Jersey - Democrats
| Democrats | 2/1-3 | 1/31-2/2 |
| Clinton | 43% | 43% |
| Obama | 43% | 42% |
| Gravel | 1% | 1% |
| Someone else | 3% | 4% |
| Undecided | 10% | 10% |
Zogby: Obama and Clinton were dead-even in New Jersey, each with 43% each and with 10% of voters undecided. Clinton was ahead among Democratic voters, 45% to 42%, but Obama had more support from independents, with 48% of their support to Clinton’s 34%. Half of women (50%) supported the former First Lady, compared to 38% for Obama. It was almost a mirror image among men, however, with 48% supporting Obama to 35% for Clinton. This survey included 847 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.4 points.
Obama's problem is there are almost 50% more women than men who vote democratic.
The USA Today Poll shows Hillary with 42% to Obama's 41%
CBS/NY Times poll puts Obama/Hillary Dead even at 41 % each
It looks like Americans are ready for a woman president, ready for a Black president, but, ironically, they may not be ready for a male first mate, particularly Bill Clinton.
Rob Kall is executive editor, publisher and site architect of OpEdNews.com, President of Futurehealth, Inc, more...)
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author
and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.
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| 5 comments |
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Zogby
I've always believed Zogby's the best. I think Obama is chronically underestimated. We'll see..... by Amy Fried (45 articles, 127 quicklinks, 77 diaries, 247 comments) on Monday, Feb 4, 2008 at 7:25:56 AM  (0+)
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Medical Care Is A Right!
It is disgusting that people can't get medical care when they need it. Medical care shouldn't just be available to the rich but to everyone. Surely any country which doesn't provide adequate care is third world! by David Grayling (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 3 diaries, 8 comments) on Monday, Feb 4, 2008 at 6:42:53 PM (0+)
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HR676
I'm with you - but none of the front running candidates are for Single Payer not for profit health care. Wasn't this article about Obama's soaring poll numbers? Anyway, I'm not voting for any candidate that can't tell us when we will be out of Iraq, clearly articulate how they will stop the out pouring of jobs from the us (NAFTA) or support Single Payer not for profit health care. Right now I don't have a candidate. Love Obama's speeches, don't hear the right words yet. Decided to abstain from Super Tuesday, part of a growing group of people "sending a message". by August Adams (11 articles, 0 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 585 comments [12 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Monday, Feb 4, 2008 at 8:43:33 PM (0+)
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A couple of more issues
On Obama's side, it's possible the polls underestimate the youth vote. But as an Obama supporter, I do worry that the early voting may overwhelm these trends. by Amy Fried (45 articles, 127 quicklinks, 77 diaries, 247 comments) on Monday, Feb 4, 2008 at 9:26:45 PM (0+)
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Free Elections Demand Polls Be Publicly Banned
How does a group that, out of one side of their mouth bemoans the "corporate controlled mainstream media," and then, out of the other, gives quarter and credence to polls such as these? I particularly question the value of polls given how utterly disconnected from the political process -- how utterly ambivalent and uninformed -- the average voter is. Drumming down the demographics adds little real value to issues deciding a candidate's worth. As far as I am concerned, part of electoral reform should be a complete ban on public disclosure of polling results throughout the election season. Let the pollsters serve the campaigns. The People can inform themselves, and ought not be treated like a bunch of mindless lemmings. by Tom Chechatka (6 articles, 1 quicklinks, 1 diaries, 57 comments [1 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Tuesday, Feb 5, 2008 at 1:33:21 PM (0+)
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