Five weeks after Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination, the parameters of the 2008 presidential contest have been established. The battle will be waged in roughly 33 states and cost more than a billion dollars. The central issues will be gas prices, the economy, and Iraq. And, despite John McCain's ineptness as a candidate, the race will be disturbingly close.
Over the past thirty days, Obama has consistently led McCain by an average of five points in tracking polls: Obama hasn't garnered more than 50 percent of the vote and McCain hasn't topped 46. During this same period, McCain's campaign has continuously made mistakes. Their blunders have varied in severity from McCain and his advisors suggesting that America's financial woes are psychological – that we've become a nation of "whiners" – to the Arizona Senator confusing Shiites with Sunnis. The only period when McCain avoided gaffes was during his ill-advised trip to Colombia and Mexico when he dropped out of sight.
Since he won the Republican nomination in March, McCain's campaign has raised less money than Obama. McCain's candidacy has had no unifying focus other than his sacrifice as a Vietnam-era POW. Moreover, a recent poll found registered Republicans have less enthusiasm for their nominee than Democrats do for Obama. Considering all these factors, why is the race so close?
There are two possible explanations. One is that the Obama campaign suffers from its own ineptness. Certainly they have yet to capitalize on McCain's inherent weaknesses. When Phil Gramm, McCain's principal financial adviser, described Americans as "whiners" because of their complaints about the economy, Obama referred to this in one speech and then let it drop; many observers felt the Illinois Senator should have hammered McCain with the whiner remark, as well as his contention that our current financial woes are psychological. Since the Iowa primary, pundits have frequently complained that Obama lacks the killer instinct because he often fails to take advantage of his opponents' gaffes – a characteristic that led New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd to label him "Obambi."
Of course, Obama may appear lackadaisical because his advisors want him to bash McCain later, during the presidential debates, when more Americans are paying attention to the election. Or Obama may be waiting until he selects a vice-presidential running mate and give him or her the task of attacking the Arizona Senator. Or Obama may reason that if he stays positive, while his opponent descends into churlishness, voters will inevitably reject McCain. Whatever the thinking of the Obama campaign may be, it would be a disastrous mistake to assume that because of his inept campaign McCain is going to disappear. Or that he is any less ruthless an opponent than was George Bush.
What we know about the Arizona Senator should make every Obama supporter nervous. John McCain is the prototypical "good old boy." That's good old white boy. He has positioned himself to represent both the Republican mainstream and its racist fringe. With his attacks on Obama's character, McCain implies the Illinois Senator doesn't have "the right stuff" while McCain does because he's sacrificed for his country -- and has white skin.
Despite his reputation as a "maverick" and "straight talker," John McCain fits the mold of Bush-era Republicans willing to say and do anything to win. Over the last eight yearshe's changed his position frequently. While it's easy to dismiss many of his flip-flops as a calculated move to the right, some of his recent blunders had a more distressing flavor, suggesting McCain's memory has failed to the extent he can no longer be trusted to speak extemporaneously -- he's liable to say anything.
Nonetheless, McCain and Bush share more than similar attitudes about oil, the economy, and Iraq; they now have the same political philosophy. In 2000, it was George Bush who fooled the press and the nation by promising to be "a uniter not a divider", an environmentalist, and America's first MBA President who would restore dignity and honor to the White House. Now it's McCain who's repackaging himself as conciliator, environmentalist, and reformer; McCain who's trying to dupe Americans.
The Arizona Senator has gotten away with so many campaign mistakes and outright lies because he has a long history of cultivating the mainstream media. Correspondents covering his campaign behave like groveling sycophants and typically ignore McCain gaffes and position changes. Many political writers are fans of big John and consistently give him the benefit of the doubt. On a 2006 episode of Hardball, host Chris Matthews explained why journalists constantly give McCain a break, "Because he served in Vietnam, and a lot of us didn't."
Despite his maladroit campaign and his association with an unpopular President, John McCain remains a formidable candidate. By retooling himself as a staunch conservative he's retained the core of the Republican Party. By cleverly coded messages he's picked up the racist vote. By manufacturing an image as a "maverick" and "reformer," he's attracted independents. And, he's seduced key members of the mainstream media. McCain isn't going away. He could win.
Bob Burnett is a Berkeley writer and Quaker actvist. He is particularly interested in progressive morality and writes frequently on the ethical aspects of political and social issues.
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this website or its editors.
I fear mr. Burnett is very naive and his explainations are way off base.McCain hasn"t cultivated the press into good reviews and ignoring his mistakes.The press ignors his faults because they are the tools of the Republican party and will do anything to promote their candidate.this is why Reagan was the teflon candidate and why the press ignored Bushes crimes.Another point is Burnett saying Obama is probably waiting for the debates to heavily criticize McCain.Obama considers himself a mediator who tries to win with words not critiscism,he lacks the killer instinct to compete in modern politicsw.This is the one favorable trait Clinton had ,she went for the jugular.
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liberalsrock (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 256 comments [53 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Thursday, Jul 17, 2008 at 6:58:39 AM
Obama will not 'win' the debates, as neither could Gore or Kerry. The media will not allow that and will spin a McCain 'win.' In the primary debates Dennis Kucinich was allowed to speak his points were much more in line with the consensus, however were completely ignored by the corporate media propagandists, hence he was a nothing to the debates.
The media will ignore the lies (okay, politically correct "misstatements") and even spin them the way the people should be hearing them. Remember the days of Ronald Reagan when one did not have to bother listening to his speeches because the media gerbils would tell us "what he meant to say".
The media even had Bush winning the debates even though the man has a problem putting a noun and a verb together in order to form an intelligent sentence.
No, we don't expect anything different this time around. Obama's statements will be regurgitated by the media and we will be told what he said. Our ears will have failed us again. McCain will be the "Presidential" one.
Once again, if the media's sales job fails it will be up to the corporate vote counters, then it will be the media's job to cover up those illegalities and the cycle continues.
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Dennis Kaiser (20 articles, 0 quicklinks, 35 diaries, 730 comments [137 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Thursday, Jul 17, 2008 at 7:45:29 AM
The REAL Reason Contest Is So Close: Race DOES Matter
Let's not kid ourselves.
The REAL reason the contest between Barack Obama and John McCain is far closer than anyone anticipated is because of the fact that Obama is black.
It is foolhardy to deny the fact that race still matters in American society -- and that like it or not (and I really hate to admit that Geraldine Ferraro may be right), the gap between Obama and McCain would be far wider than it is if Obama was white.
Opinion polls continue to show persistently that a 30 percent minority of white voters -- most of them over 55 years of age with only a high-school education or less -- will not vote for Obama under any circumstances, with a surprisingly high percentage of this group openly acknowledging that they're not comfortable with the prospect of a black man occupying the White House.
Religious bias is also playing a prominent role, with most of this group -- comprising of conservative Christian evangelicals and fundamentalists -- continuing to cling to the false belief that Obama is a Muslim.
Interestingly, many of these same respondents also refused to back failed GOP candidate Mitt Romney, solely because of his Mormon faith -- which they stubbornly consider to be a non-Christian cult -- even though Romney was the most conservative of the major contenders for the GOP nomination.
Nothing Obama does is going to open these people's closed minds, thus Obama has no choice but to appeal to the broad center of the American electorate -- and if progressives don't like it, that's just too bad.
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Skeeter Sanders (32 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 78 comments) on Friday, Jul 18, 2008 at 10:55:51 AM
The real reason the race is so close is because both candidates are right wing global fascists who share the same agenda. The media ignores McCain's faults as well as Obama's faults because they are both corporate candidates who serve the establishment. The establishment will never be too critical of its own representatives. They will only attack outsiders with a radical agenda who seek to remove the establishment from power.
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Ty (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 888 comments [2 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Saturday, Jul 19, 2008 at 11:30:17 AM
The only reason McCain is close is the smear campaign that is playing on the religious bigotry, the racism, and the gross stupidity of the American voters. How else could a blithering idiot rate on any polls? Oh yeah, I forget, they cheat! It is probably far easier to rig a poll than it is to rig an election.
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Hayesml47 (6 articles, 0 quicklinks, 4 diaries, 540 comments [10 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Monday, Jul 21, 2008 at 7:46:48 AM
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