UnMasking The Iranian Power Play

Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey and his analysis is important in identifying who the real contenders are in the recent Iran presidential election as well as how high the stakes are. 

In that regard, Bhadrakumar writes that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei won a resounding victory in this election and that the grey cardinal of Iranian politics Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was dealt a crushing defeat.

This disputed election outcome is all about power politics at the highest level and Bhadrakumar is more than capable of unmasking this Iranian power play.  

Excerpt: " Rafsanjani's plot was to somehow extend the election to the run-off stage, where Mousavi was expected to garner the "anti-Ahmedinejad" votes. The estimation was that at the most Ahmedinejad would poll in the first round 10 to 12 million votes out of the 28 to 30 million who might actually vote (out of a total electorate of 46.2 million) and, therefore, if only the election extended to the run-off, Mousavi would be the net beneficiary as the votes polled by Rezai and Karrubi were essentially "anti-Ahmadinejad" votes.

The regime was already well into the election campaign when it realized that behind the clamor for a change of leadership in the presidency, Rafsanjani's challenge was in actuality aimed at Khamenei's leadership and that the election was a proxy war. The roots of the Rafsanjani-Khamenei rift go back to the late 1980s when Khamenei assumed the leadership in 1989.

But, if Rafsanjani's calculation was that the "mutiny" within the clerical establishment would unnerve Khamenei, he misread the calculus of power in Tehran. Khamenei did the worst thing possible to Rafsanjani. He simply ignored the "Shark" ~ a nickname Rafsanjani acquired in the vicious well of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) where he used to swim dangerously as a political predator in the early years of the Iranian Revolution as the speaker.

Instead, on Khamenei instructions ~ The IRGC and the Basij volunteers running into tens of millions swiftly mobilized. They coalesced with the millions of rural poor who adore Ahmadinejad as their leader. It was a repeat of the 2005 election. The voter turnout an unprecedented 85%. Within hours of the announcement of Ahmadinejad's thumping victory, Khamenei gave the seal of approval by applauding that the high voter turnout called for "real celebration"... but Khamenei's message to Rafsanjani was blunt: accept defeat gracefully and stay away from further mischief "

On the chessboard of power politics Rafsanjani's opening gambit failed and as Bhadrakumar concludes ~ " Friday's election ensures that the house of Supreme Leader Khamenei will remain by far the focal point of power. It is the headquarters of the country's presidency, Iran's armed forces, especially the IRGC. It is the fountainhead of the three branches of government and the nodal point of foreign, security and economic policies."

Obama knows where the real game is being played and it's not on the streets of Iran.

Allen L Roland http://blogs.salon.com/0002255/2009/06/17.html

Cartoon courtesy of Pat Oliphant / Washington Post