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June 10, 2008 at 09:40:41

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U.S. Economy and The Greedy Chinese:

by Mike Folkerth     Page 1 of 1 page(s)

www.opednews.com

 
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When I asked my 4 year old grandson why he was getting bigger and bigger he didn’t really know, but his sister, overhearing the question and armed with the vast knowledge acquired in 1st grade replied, “He had a birthday.” Not a bad answer. A far better response in fact than I get from most adults when asked why the economy grows and grows.

What happens when the U.S. economy doesn’t grow, is a question that millions of Americans will soon be able to answer correctly. It results in extended unemployment and homes being repossessed by the millions. Things that can’t go on forever won’t.

The employment picture is an area that is being given far too little ink. The U.S. has lost jobs for five consecutive months. This decline has far deeper roots than are being reported, after all, who wants to talk about growing unemployment when there are Vice Presidential running mates to be picked?

The U.S. by virtue of our immigration policies, added to domestic births, must grow by a minimum of 125,000 jobs per month. But it isn’t. We are in fact, contracting. Each and every month the inflow into the job market is approximately 180,000 if we consider the addition of illegal immigration.

With five consecutive months of net job losses, the imbalance can best be pictured as a dam with the inflow stream representing job seekers and outflow representing new hiring. As we can see in this example, the imbalance would cause the reservoir behind the dam to fill up with job seekers.

Even if new employment began to rise to historical exponential levels (don’t hold your breath), the continual inflow would be sufficient to match the newly created jobs. So what about the glut of the millions who were filling up the reservoir? Uh-oh!

A country that depends on exponential growth in the job market will reach the mathematically impenetrable point of what the King of Simple describes as “Maximum Sustainable Employment.”

Let’s look at Maximum Sustainable Employment with Mikeronomics. Pretend that you had a business plan for a bread bakery and in your business plan you intended to hire 10 new people every week. Eventually, bread sales would reach a maximum and you couldn’t possibly continue your hiring practice without going broke. I just described the U.S. economy.

Bread sales would reach a maximum due to per capita consumption or what we refer to as market saturation. But let’s play pretend and say that would never happen. The next barrier would be resource depletion, such as wheat. Never going to happen?

For those who have read my book and those who read the King of Simple News, I have pointed out many times that should China alone consume at the per capita rate of the U.S., the remainder of the world would have what share of resources? Who said zero? That’s the correct answer.

In news today, the World Wide Food organization (WWF) reported, “If China were to follow the lead of the United States, where each person demands nearly 10 hectares (24.7 acres) of productive area, China would demand the available capacity of the entire planet.”

So there I was, driving down the street in my Hummer on the way to my beach house to pick up a few things before I headed to my private jet and Europe for a well deserved weekend getaway when my Bluetooth rang and my secretary informed me that my 16 year old son had just wrecked his new Porsche in his private school’s parking lot!

To make matters worse, my broker phoned minutes later to say that oil had spiked again due to those greedy Chinese expanding to motor scooters. What is this world coming to?

 

www.kingofsimple.com

Mike Folkerth is the author of "The Biggest Lie Ever Believed" and is not your run-of-the-mill author of finance and economics. The former real estate broker, developer, private real estate fund manager, auctioneer, Alaskan bush pilot, restaurateur, U.S. Navy veteran, heavy equipment operator, taxi cab driver, fishing guide, horse packer and few jobs too embarrassing to mention, writes from experience and plain common sense. Mike's humorous systems of "Mikeronomics" and "Mikemathics" drastically simplify the economic and mathematic formulas commonly used by very smart, but terribly sheltered individuals.

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