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Trajectory Of Middle East Conflict

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Israelis and Palestinians placed themselves in no-win situations, proceeded to lose-lose situations, and remain in an intense conflict. Institutions and agencies who gather data and predict trends must know that the conflict's monotonic trajectory of violence forecasts disaster and its citizens will suffer greatly from the fallout in which Israelis and Palestinians have trapped one another. Yet, policies don't seem to consider the ominous signs - just the opposite - the rhetoric pardons, the direction plods, and illegal actions draw only mild rebuke.

The more publicized reports shape the Israeli/Palestinian conflict as an embattled Israel that struggles for security by repelling attacks from antagonists. By removing ourselves from the cinematic Exodus perspective, another dimension to the struggles is revealed; the world misperceived each crisis, which allowed Israel to extend its territory and guide the Middle East conflict in its own direction. Recognition of the other dimension is a preliminary step to calculating the trajectory of the Israeli/Palestinian crisis.

A brief summary, from another perspective, of the wars fought by Israel is presented below. A more detailed report can be read at: Israel's Wars, http://www.alternativeinsight.com/Israel%27s_Wars.html

In the 1948 war, the Arab forces did not have the military strength to "throw the Israelis into the sea." Egyptian troop movements indicate a defense of the new Palestinian state rather than intent to occupy the new Israeli state.

It is no coincidence that Israel invaded and occupied the Sinai in 1956 before French and British coordinated attacks against Nasser's Egypt. Rarely mentioned is a controversial meeting, known as the Protocol of Sèvres, which describes Israel Prime Minister David ben Gurion's proposed invasion plan to Great Britain and France.

At the start of the 1967 war, Israel claimed that Arab armies had prepared an attack, which forced Israel to defend itself. The media didn't accurately portray the hostilities that preceded the battle. Israel reacted to events with its own provocative behavior and initiated the offensive that started the six-day war.

The first Lebanon war (1982-1985) commenced from Israel's assertion that the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) had violated a ceasefire agreement. President Johnson's UN ambassador George Ball contradicted Israel and stated that the PLO had observed the ceasefire agreement. He also wrote in his memoirs, "Israel continued looking for the internationally recognized provocation that Secretary of State Alexander Haig said would be necessary to obtain American support for an Israeli invasion of Lebanon."

The second Intifada (2000-2004) and its suicide bombings erupted from Israel's aggressive tactics. Statistics from Israel Human rights organization, B'Tselem, show that from the date of Ariel Sharon's unnecessary excursion on the Temple Mount/Haram al Sharif in September 29, 2000 until the beginning of the year 2001 Israeli forces killed 237 Palestinian civilians in the occupied territories. More than 100 Palestinian civilians, of which about 1/2 were minors under 18 years of age, had already been killed before two terrorist bombings killed four civilians in Israel.

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In December 2006, by killing several Israeli soldiers and abducting two of them, while firing mortars at the Israel town of Shlomi, Hezbollah started an unjustified skirmish. Israel, after learning it could not use a ground campaign to retrieve its military personnel, escalated hostilities that could have and should have been contained, initiated a pulverizing war. Hezbollah started a low-level conflict and Israel propelled the skirmish into a violent war with the intent of rousing the Lebanese against Hezbollah and destroying the Shiite militia.

Operation "Cast Lead" (December 2008 to January 2009) ostensibly resulted from Israel's attempt to silence rocket fire from Gaza. Ignored were Israel's punishing tactics against the Gazans, which provoked the rocket attacks, and that, in the three months preceding the invasion, the rockets did no damage. "Cast Lead' managed to kill many Palestinians and destroy Gaza infrastructure but did not end hostilities between Israel and the rocket firers. Since Israel did not satisfy its stated objective for its attack, which was to "stop the rocket firing," other reasons and objectives prevail. One objective - to test new invasion strategies and weapons for future wars.

Since the world allowed one-sided and horrific wars, Israel has an incentive to continue its drive towards a Greater Israel. After suffering casualties during the Second Lebanon War, and in order to prevent damage to its citizens in the coming wars, Israel modified military strategy and exposed its intentions. All rockets fired from Gaza now serve to test the new Iron Dome anti-ballistic missile weapon system. Robotic armaments (Israel eyes futuristic robot army August 29, 2011, Ryan Jones, Israel Today Magazine) are being designed to replace the warring foot soldiers.

Israel has de facto control of the West Bank. Its next step is to achieve de jure recognition. Once that occurs, the new Israel emerges with a likelihood of giving attention to only citizens of the Jewish faith, adding another flame to a burning situation.

Evidence - The discrimination against Israeli Arabs has existed for decades and no positive changes are being offered. The status of Israel's Palestinian citizens compares to that of the African Americans in the United States in the years before 1950. While being almost 20% of the population, only 13 of the 120 members of the Israeli Parliament are Arab citizens, and they are powerless. At the end of 2010, 7.5% % Israeli civil servants were Arab with mostly serving Arab communities. Laws that discriminate against Palestinian citizens of Israel are summarized in War in Context - Discrimination against Palestinian citizens of Israel.

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The future continues the past.

No strong Israeli movement protests the exclusions of Israeli Palestinians from society. This attitude permits future Israeli governments to accelerate a downward drift in rights for the Palestinian Israelis. As both ethnic populations grow and seek more space, the room for the Palestinians, who cannot purchase land or move to new communities, will shrink. Noting the escalating ethnocentric and virulent nationalism of the Jewish Israelis, the future of the Israeli Arabs is that of benign neglect and pressure to move away, with some talk of expulsion. That trajectory has started,

JERUSALEM (Reuters) Oct. 5, 2011 -- "Following a recent increase in 'Price tag' attacks on Palestinian holy sites, former high-ranking Israeli security officials warned of the risk of a surge in violence across the region. The attack this week on a mosque in the village of Tuba-Zangariya in northern Israel, where the interior prayer hall and religious emblems were set on fire, was the most recent in a series of attacks that Jewish settlers label 'Price Tag' attacks, signifying payback for any Israeli curbs on settlements in the West Bank. By spreading a year long trail of torched mosques and vehicles from occupied territory into Israel, the elusive militants now threaten not only peacemaking with Palestinians but an already strained coexistence between Israel's Jewish and minority Palestinian citizens."

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Dan Lieberman is the editor of Alternative Insight, a monthly web based newsletter. His website articles have been read in more than 150 nations, while articles written for other websites have appeared in online journals throughout the world(B 92, (more...)

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