To say the least, "things" are heating up over Turkey's downing a Russian jet fighter last Tuesday in Syria.
At this point one "thing" seems clear, the attack was a pre-planned provocation carried out by Turkey. Whether Washington was in on it hasn't been substantiated-though it's hard to imagine Turkish President Erdogan pulling off this stunt alone. [1]
Reading the "tea leaves" of other commentators it could very well have been the impetuous "Sultan" Erdogan-Pepe Escobar's moniker for the man-did act on his own believing the incident would draw NATO and its master the US deeper into the Syrian fray, condemn Putin and Russia for the supposed "incursion" into Turkish air space.
But other than a few tepid comments from the West, "We support Turkey", blah, blah, blah, there's no way the Europeans want a confrontation with Russia. As for the US, despite all the neo-con inflated rhetoric about the demon Putin and his actions in Syria, the Obama administration isn't about to directly confront Russia in Syria.
Yet one "thing" seems all but certain, Putin taking direct action with Turkey. Yes he's brought his missile cruiser "Moskva" and its S-400 SAM missiles-with a range of 250 miles- closer to the Russian port in Latakia, Syria to protect Russian fighter jets in their missions over Syria, openly condemned Erdogan's "stabbing him in the back"[2], with his pre-planned provocation and lately "indirectly blames"[3] Obama being in on the planning.
Yet here's the "thing" with Putin he doesn't announce beforehand what action he's about to take-unless one counts his one hour advance notification to the White House of his planes about to attack the terrorists in Syria on Sept. 30, 2015.
No, Turkey's provocation won't go unpunished, but I'm no seer who can predict the action Putin will take. Even though he's his own man, he does seem to consult closely with his advisors before taking concrete action. He also doesn't seem to do anything rash. Going into Syria was done completely within international law at the request of the legitimate government. His actions taken are explained rationally without western type dissembling.
Up to now Putin's actions in Syria, his air force in close coordination on the ground with Assad's Syrian Arab Army, the Iranian's, Iraqi's, Hezbollah have been decimating IS and assorted terrorist facilities, compounds, weapons arsenals, trucks transporting illegal oil from Syria into Turkey, while liberating the strategic Kuweires military air base east of Aleppo, has been nothing short of brilliant.
As for the notion of "safe zones" within Syria opposite the Turkish border is an idea in shambles. These "zones" would simply be havens for terrorists supplied through Turkey, paid for by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the other gulf monarchies and the US. They'd continue to be a threat to the sovereign Syrian state.
That can't be allowed to happen. There can be no solution to the Syrian crisis without its borders remaining intact, secure and free of the IS beheading monsters.
Negotiations of a sort to end the Syrian crisis transpired in Vienna two weeks ago but to little avail. They will become consequential when the "Assad must go" mantra ends, IS militants all but depleted within the country as well as Iraq, Russia initiates its own "no fly zone" within Syria-which essentially has happened with the S-400 SAM's in place. Then a cease fire can be agreed upon-of course with international assistance, new elections held including Assad as a candidate for president-including Syrian "moderates" and any others previously opposed to the Assad regime.
For now, Turkey's provocation downing the Russian plane in Syria won't be the incident bringing WWIII. It should be the event that refocus's everyone's attention particularly in Europe. The growing refugee crisis there should be the catalyst for Europe to act in its self interest, join with Russia against the terrorists in Syria, with Germany and France taking the lead, to reassert their sovereignty and coordinate with Russia in Syria despite US objections.
As for the US, if the mad neo-cons continue to hold sway in Washington other provocations will likely occur and as always directed at Putin, "things" will get hotter.
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