I explained in these articles that a twist of the yield curve from a grossly undervalued configuration to a fair valuation was in the way:
The orange yield curve is the recent lowest yield curve (on August, 25th).The green yield curve is the expected, almost normal, yield curve (on Sept 17th).
Recent Minimum Yield Curve and the Normal Yield Curve by Shalom Hamou
We had a splendid Hammer on August 25th on 10 Years US Treasury Notes:
Daily Chart of the Future on 10 Years US Treasury Notes by Shalom Hamou
On Friday we made a fantastic Runaway Gap from Thursday between 2.639% and 2.650%.
Hourly Chart of the Yield of the 10 Years US Treasury Notes by Shalom Hamou
Other Supporting Evidences:
I remind you that this Twist of the yield curve does not come from any macro economic reason but only as a dynamic return of the yield curve from a formidably undervalued configuration to its fairly valued configuration.
Prove is that in getting that reversal we didn't get extraordinarily good macro economic figures: they were just as bad as usual. The reaction to Jackson Hole meeting which in other times would have crushed down long-term yields had just the opposite effect.
The Federal Reserve System will necessarily misinterpret that steepening of the yield curve:
The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator
Forecasting Recessions: the Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve
1 | 2