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Playing with Numbers

By       Message David Glenn Cox     Permalink
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I only watched the first of the three Presidential debates and after the
media declared Willard (Mitt) Romney the winner of the first debate, I
didn't see much point in watching any further. I had mistakenly thought
this was an audience participation event, when it was merely a spectacle
to be observed by us weed benders. The thundering media herd declares
for us the winner and we are expected to sit there, over awed and clap
when the applause sign lights up.

I don't have a dog in this fight; I could easily do fifteen hundred
words on the deficiencies of either candidate. In the words of George
Wallace, "There ain't a dimes worth of difference between them. "Two
candidates, both, unknown quantities, Barack Obama has been in the
public spotlight through two Presidential campaigns plus, four years as
President and yet all we know of him is a public image.

We know that when push comes to shove Obama will side with Republicans
over his own party. We know Obama will never, ever, ever side with the
American people over Corporate America. We know American foreign policy
under Barack Obama is no different than it was under Bush / Cheney. The
American Imperialist Juggernaut continues unimpeded and will continue
unimpeded regardless of who wins this stage show election.

The only thing we really know with any certainty about Willard (Mitt)
Romney is that he is insanely rich. He was born insanely rich, attended
all the best schools and he took his top drawer education and proceeded
to use it to milk the American economy, like a cow. He is a leveraged
buy out specialist, he buys up companies to loot them of their assets
and once the process is complete, throws the husk and the workers away.

Personally, I thought Obama won the first debate, though Romney
certainly looked Presidential enough with his professionally frosted
side burns. But when put on the defensive Romney's voice pitch began to
rise, it was a clear sign of rising tension and a failure of debate 101.
Despite this, the media claimed Romney won the first debate and then
the media declares Obama won the second debate and then the third.

The media claimed Romney earned a huge bump in popularity because of his
debate performance, really? While 67 million people watched the first
debate, how many of them were undecided voters? Let's say, for the sake
of argument, 10% were undecided voters or 6.7 million voters. So let's
say, that every last one of those undecided viewers decided right then
and there, "You know what Margaret, I think that Mitt Romney is on to
something, I'm kicking Barack Obama to the curb and voting for Mitt
Romney." There are 236 million people of voting age in this country and
almost half of them vote, so if half of those undecided voters turn up
at the polls and vote for Willard (Mitt) Romney were looking at 3.4
million votes. Not bad, but certainly not a game changer in an election
of 91 million votes.

Ten days ago, every national poll listed Barack Obama as way out in
front in the contest. Even Fox News had Obama out in front and now" the
contest is deadlocked despite Barack Obama being declared the winner of
the last two debates. How can that be? How can a sitting President with
adequate approval numbers lose his dominating lead in ten days to a
candidate who basically calls 47 percent of the electorate unnecessary
untermunchin.

It is a game called swing state, Ohio is the swing states of all swing
states and is leaning toward Obama with a 6 percent undecided. How much
is 6 % of the Ohio electorate, 83,000 votes.

Time -- Obama 49-44 with 3% undecided

Rasmussen - Tied 48 -- 48 with 6% undecided

Quinnipiac / CBS - Obama 50 -48 with 3% undecided

Fox -- Obama 46 -- 43 with 10% undecided

Total Number of registered voters in Ohio, 7,722,180

Combined number of voters polled in the four national polls above; 4,171

Four national polls ask less than one than one tenth of the voters in
Erie county Ohio their preference and then proclaim this number as a
valid indicator.

The next toss up state, is Florida, hmmm, Florida. What do we know about
Florida, orange juice, beaches, Mickey Mouse and senior citizens, lots
and lots of senior citizens. So, hypothetically, if a campaign were to
talk about privatizing Social Security in Florida it would be suicidal,
right?

Rasmussen -- Romney 51- 46 with 2% undecided

Fox -- Romney 48- 45 with 6% undecided

CNN -- Romney 49- 48 with 2% undecided

Survey USA -- Obama 47- 46 with 5% undecided

Total number of registered voters in Florida, 11,778,140

Number of voters identifying themselves as Democrats, 4,715,684

Number of voters identifying themselves as Republicans, 4,214,241

No party affiliation, 2,516,757

Combined number of Florida voters polled in the four national polls above, 3,246

So hypothetically, Obama should have a 500,000 vote party advantage. If
we split the "no affiliation" category between the two candidates Obama
still leads. There are 4.2 million seniors in Florida over 60 years of
age. It comprises the states largest voting block, in a state which
technically, at least, leans Democratic and the national polls have
Romney in the lead over a sitting President by asking one third of one
percent of likely Florida voters.

Out West, Colorado is also listed as a "swing state" most of the
national polls show Romney with a slight lead. Some of the national
polls used a few as 500 likely voters to determine that outcome, the
outcome they (the media) wanted.Colorado has just a few variables which don't show up in telephone polls
of 500 likely voters. First, since 2000, the state's population has
increased by 15% mainly in the urban areas of Denver and Boulder.
Secondly, these numbers are younger and better educated, both poor
indicators for Republican candidates.

Colorado's Hispanic population surged by 41 percent since 2000 and
Hispanics represent 21 % of the population in Colorado. This combined
with the fact that Obama carried a vast majority of Hispanic voters in
2008 carrying the state by nine percentage points over John McCain. What
swing state, is Willard (Mitt) Romney really that good of a candidate?

Iowa where the campaign began so long ago and yet is still to decide on a
candidate. The state has 607,936 registered Republicans versus 595,423
registered Democrats. In 2008, Barack Obama carried the state with 54%
of the vote, what could have changed? Iowa's economy has fared better
than most places in the United States, so why the change?

Rasmussen, Tied, 48- 48 with 2% undecided.

PPP -- Romney, 48-49 with 4% undecided

NBC/WSJ/Marist - Obama, 51- 43 with 4% undecided

We Ask America - Obama, 49 - 46 with 4% undecided

Registered Iowa voters -- 2,090,309

Total number of Iowa voters polled above- 4,005

Now it all gets very interesting when we look at these amazing number
shifts which have closed a once lopsided race and turned it into a nail
biter. Did the rescue helicopters crash in Iran; was Obama filmed while
driving a tank? Was Willard (Mitt) Romney's debate performance so
magnificently strong, that overnight, millions upon millions of
Americans just up and changed their minds?

"In religion and politics people's beliefs and convictions are in almost
every case gotten at second-hand, and without examination, from
authorities who have not themselves examined the questions at issue but
have taken them at second-hand from other non-examiners, whose opinions
about them were not worth a brass farthing." -- Mark Twain

Polling data from thirty days ago;

NBC/ WSJ, Obama 49 -- 46 with 3.4% undecided

NPR, Obama 51 - 44 with 4% undecided

ABC/ Wash Post, Obama 49 -- 47 with 4% undecided

Quinnipiac, Obama 49 -- 45 with 6% undecided

Wash Times, Obama 50 -- 41 with 7% undecided

Politico, Obama 49 -- 47 with 5% undecided

FOX, Obama 48 -- 43 with 4% undecided

Bloomberg, Obama 49 -- 43 with 4% undecided

National Journal, Obama 50 -- 43 with 3% undecided

Either a sitting President with no major gaffs in his campaign has
suddenly become unpopular for no particular reason, what so ever as to
prompt tens of millions of voters to change their minds about him in a
scant thirty days. These millions are suddenly willing to do a complete
180 degree about face in their political preferences, swayed by the
person, persona and politics of Willard (Mitt) Romney. Either it is so,
or the numbers are jimmied. It is an impossibility outside of the domain
of heaven.

"A statistician is a person who draws a mathematically precise line from
an unwarranted assumption to a foregone conclusion." - Unknown

"In earlier times, they had no statistics, and so they had to fall back on lies." -- Stephan Leacock
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I who am I? Born at the pinnacle of American prosperity to parents raised during the last great depression. I was the youngest child of the youngest children born almost between the generations and that in fact clouds and obscures who it is that I (more...)
 

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