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Parsing the East Asian Powder Keg

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Cross-posted from Dispatches From The Edge

China and The US: The Past's Dead Hand

From youtube.com/watch?v=eZnv6CXkzBA: A 'Powder Keg' in Asia Between China and Japan
A 'Powder Keg' in Asia Between China and Japan
(image by YouTube)
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A major cause of current tensions in the East and South China seas are two documents that most Americans have either forgotten about or don't know exist. But both are fueling a potential confrontation among the world's three most powerful economies that is far more unstable and dangerous than most people assume.

Consider what has happened over the past six months:

  • In February, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry assured Japan that the Americans would defend Japan in case of a military confrontation between Tokyo and Beijing. That same month, U.S. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Jonathan Greenert said the Philippines could count on American support if there were a clash with China in the South China Sea.

  • In early May, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces practiced "retaking" islands of the Amami Group near Okinawa in a not-so-subtle challenge to China over the ownership of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea. That same week, U.S. and Philippine forces held joint war games, while President Barack Obama promised "ironclad" support against "aggressive" neighbors seeking to alter "changing the status quo" in Asia.
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  • In mid-May, China challenged Japanese ownership of Okinawa, stating it did "not belong to Japan," challenging Tokyo, and indirectly calling in to question the presence of huge U.S. bases on the island.

  • At the end of May, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pledged Tokyo would support the Philippines, Vietnam, and other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in their disputes with Beijing over islands and shoals in the South China Seas.

  • On July 1, the Abe government "re-interpreted" Article 9 of its peace constitution to allow Japan to use military force in support of its allies. U.S. allies in the region supported the move. The Philippines agreed to allow the U.S. military use of the former American base at Subic Bay.

American naval vessels have accused the Chinese Navy of playing chicken off China's coast. Chinese ships are blockading Philippine ships near a number of disputed shoals and reefs. Vietnam claims China rammed some of its ships. Japan scrambled a record number of fighter planes to intercept supposed incursions by Chinese and Russian aircraft. U.S. Senator John McCain called China "a rising threat," and the Pentagon's Frank Kandell told the House Armed Forces Committee that U.S. military superiority in the Pacific was "not assured."

In short, "tense" doesn't quite describe the situation in Asia these days, more like "scary."

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A major source of that friction are two documents, the 1951 "San Francisco Treaty" that ended World War II in Asia, and a little known doctrine called the AirSea Battle plan.

According to research by Kimie Hara, the Director of East Asian Studies at Renison University College and the author of numerous books on the Cold War in Asia, today's tensions were purposely built into the 1951 Treaty. "Close examination of the Allies' documents, particularly those of the United States (which was primarily responsible for drafting the peace treaty), reveals that some, if not all, of these problems were intentionally created or left unresolved to protect U.S. strategic interests."

Hara say the U.S. wanted to create "strategic ambiguity" and "manageable instability" that would allow the U.S. to continue a major military presence in the region. She specifically points to disagreements over the Kurile/Northern Territories Islands, the Dokdo/Takeshima islands, the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, the Spratley/Nansha and Paracel/Xisha islands, the divided Korea, and the Taiwan Straits. All of these -- plus a few others -- have led to tensions or confrontations among Japan, China, Russia, the Philippines, Vietnam, South and North Korea, Malaysia and Brunei.

Neither China nor Korea was invited to the Treaty talks, and while the USSR was present, it was not a signatory.

Sometimes the U.S. directly sabotaged efforts to resolve issues among Asian nations. In 1954, Japan and the Soviet Union restored diplomatic relations and were on the verge of cutting a deal over the Kurlies/Northern Territory islands, essentially splitting the difference: Japan would take two islands, the USSR another two.

However, Washington was worried that a peace treaty between Tokyo and Moscow would eventually lead to diplomatic ties between Japan and communist China, and that would have exerted, says Hara, "considerable pressure on the United States to vacate Okinawa, whose importance had significantly increased as a result of the Americas' Cold War strategy in Asia." Okinawa was a major base for the U.S. during the Korean War.

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http://dispatchesfromtheedgeblog.wordpress.com

Conn M. Hallinan is a columnist for Foreign Policy In Focus, "A Think Tank Without Walls, and an independent journalist. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of California, Berkeley. He oversaw the (more...)
 

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