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Obama and progressives: what will liberals do with their big election victory?

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Cross-posted from The Guardian

With fights over Social Security, Medicare, ongoing war, and other key progressive priorities looming, what will they do with their new power?

Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren during an election night rally after defeating Republican Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race. Photograph: Michael Dwyer/AP

(updated below)

The greatest and most enduring significance of Tuesday night's election results will likely not be the re-election of Barack Obama, but rather what the outcome reflects about the American electorate. It was not merely Democrats, but liberalism, which was triumphant.

To begin with, it is hard to overstate just how crippled America's right-wing is. Although it was masked by their aberrational win in 2010, the GOP has now been not merely defeated, but crushed, in three out of the last four elections: in 2006 (when they lost control of the House and Senate), 2008 (when Obama won easily and Democrats expanded their margins of control), and now 2012. The horrendous political legacy of George Bush and Dick Cheney continues to sink the GOP, and demographic realities -- how toxic the American Right is to the very groups that are now becoming America's majority -- makes it difficult to envision how this will change any time soon.

Meanwhile, new laws to legalize both same-sex marriage and marijuana use were enacted in multiple states with little controversy, an unthinkable result even a few years ago, while Obama's late-term embrace of same-sex marriage seems to have resulted only in political benefit with no political harm. Democrats were sent to the Senate by deeply red states such as Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota, along with genuinely progressive candidates on domestic issues, including Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, who became the first openly gay person elected to the Senate. As a cherry on the liberal cake, two of the most loathed right-wing House members -- Rep Joe Walsh of Illinois and Allen West of Florida -- were removed from office.

So the delirium of liberals this morning is understandable: the night could scarcely have gone better for them. By all rights, they should expect to be a more powerful force in Washington. But what are they going to get from it? Will they wield more political power? Will their political values and agenda command more respect? Unless the disempowering pattern into which they have voluntarily locked themselves changes, the answer to those questions is almost certainly "no."

Consider the very first controversial issue Obama is likely to manage, even before the glow of his victory dims, literally within the next couple of weeks. It is widely expected -- including by liberals -- that Obama intends (again) to pursue a so-called "Grand Bargain" with the GOP: a deficit- and debt-cutting agreement whereby the GOP agrees to some very modest tax increases on the rich in exchange for substantial cuts to entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, the crown legislative jewels of American liberalism.

Indeed, Obama already sought in his first term to implement sizable cuts to those programs, but liberals were saved only by GOP recalcitrance to compromise on taxes. In light of their drubbing last night, they are likely to be marginally if not substantially more flexible, which means that such a deal is more possible than ever.

In other words, the political leader in whose triumph liberals are today ecstatically basking is likely to target their most cherished government policies within a matter of weeks, even days. With their newly minted power, will they have any ability, or even will, to stop him? If history is any indication, this is how this "fight" will proceed:

STEP ONE: Liberals will declare that cutting Social Security and Medicare benefits -- including raising the eligibility age or introducing "means-testing" -- are absolutely unacceptable, that they will never support any bill that does so no matter what other provisions it contains, that they will wage war on Democrats if they try.

STEP TWO: As the deal gets negotiated and takes shape, progressive pundits in Washington, with Obama officials persuasively whispering in their ears, will begin to argue that the proposed cuts are really not that bad, that they are modest and acceptable, that they are even necessary to save the programs from greater cuts or even dismantlement.

STEP THREE: Many progressives -- ones who are not persuaded that these cuts are less than draconian or defensible on the merits -- will nonetheless begin to view them with resignation and acquiescence on pragmatic grounds. Obama has no real choice, they will insist, because he must reach a deal with the crazy, evil GOP to save the economy from crippling harm, and the only way he can do so is by agreeing to entitlement cuts. It is a pragmatic necessity, they will insist, and anyone who refuses to support it is being a purist, unreasonably blind to political realities, recklessly willing to blow up Obama's second term before it even begins.

STEP FOUR: The few liberal holdouts, who continue to vehemently oppose any bill that cuts Social Security and Medicare, will be isolated and marginalized, excluded from the key meetings where these matters are being negotiated, confined to a few MSNBC appearances where they explain their inconsequential opposition.

STEP FIVE: Once a deal is announced, and everyone from Obama to Harry Reid and the DNC are behind it, any progressives still vocally angry about it and insisting on its defeat will be castigated as ideologues and purists, compared to the Tea Party for their refusal to compromise, and scorned (by compliant progressives) as fringe Far Left malcontents.

STEP SIX: Once the deal is enacted with bipartisan support and Obama signs it in a ceremony, standing in front of his new Treasury Secretary, the supreme corporatist Erskine Bowles, where he touts the virtues of bipartisanship and making "tough choices," any progressives still complaining will be told that it is time to move on. Any who do not will be constantly reminded that there is an Extremely Important Election coming -- the 2014 midterm -- where it will be Absolutely Vital that Democrats hold onto the Senate and that they take over the House. Any progressives, still infuriated by cuts to Social Security and Medicare, who still refuse to get meekly in line behind the Party will be told that they are jeopardizing the Party's chances for winning that Vital Election and -- as a result of their opposition - are helping Mitch McConnell take over control of the Senate and John Boehner retain control of the House.

And so it goes. That is the standard pattern of self-disempowerment used by American liberals to render themselves impotent and powerless in Washington, not just on economic issues but the full panoply of political disputes, from ongoing militarism, military spending and war policies to civil liberties assaults, new cabinet appointments, immigration policy, and virtually everything else likely to arise in the second term.

Indeed, nobody takes STEP ONE in that depressing ritual even a little bit seriously. Nobody believes the declarations of progressives make about what is "unacceptable," about what their "red lines" are, about how they will refuse to go along with what they are given if it contains what they declare intolerable. That's because STEPS TWO THROUGH SIX always follow, and until that pattern is broken, STEP ONE will continue to be viewed as a trivial joke.

With last night's results, one can choose to see things two ways: (1) emboldened by their success and the obvious movement of the electorate in their direction, liberals will resolve that this time things will be different, that their willingness to be Good Partisan Soldiers depends upon their core values not being ignored and stomped on, or (2) inebriated with love and gratitude for Obama for having vanquished the evil Republican villains, they will follow their beloved superhero wherever he goes with even more loyalty than before. One does not need to be Nate Silver to be able to use the available historical data to see which of those two courses is the far more likely one.

UPDATE

I suggested above that, in light of last night's results, the GOP would be more willing than the last time to compromise on tax issues and thus a "grand bargain" with Obama was more likely. This morning, the Washington Post reports:

"Quickly pivoting the political conversation from President Obama's reelection to Washington's looming budget battles, House Speaker John A. Boehner on Wednesday offered a potential path to compromise, saying Republicans are 'willing to accept new revenue' to tame the soaring national debt and avert an ugly battle over the approaching 'fiscal cliff.'

"With Obama's decisive electoral victory and Republicans' hold on the House, with a slightly smaller majority, Boehner (R-Ohio) said Tuesday's election amounted to a plea from voters for the parties to lay down their weapons of the past two years and 'do what's best for our country.'

"In exchange, however, Boehner said Democrats must not 'continue to duck the matter of entitlements,' referring to the rising cost of Social Security and federal health programs, which he called 'the root of the problem'."

That's the language of the "grand bargain": very modest tax increases on the rich in exchange for cuts to entitlement programs. It's not a guarantee that they will reach a deal, but it's a guarantee that Obama will try.

 

For the past 10 years, I was a litigator in NYC specializing in First Amendment challenges, civil rights cases, and corporate and securities fraud matters. I am the author of the New York Times Best-Selling book, How Would A Patriot (more...)
 

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Liberalism was not triumphant, traditional Conserv... by Mrt Baggins on Wednesday, Nov 7, 2012 at 10:36:46 PM
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The privatized prisons that regular folk are held ... by Kim Cassidy on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 7:13:26 PM
The federal reserve must be entirely abolished! Mo... by Joan Mootry on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 1:22:03 AM
While you're waiting for the expresso...take a pre... by Michael Rose on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 4:35:38 AM
You are absolutely correct! We must own the federa... by Bill Johnson on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 6:07:30 AM
Everyone should see this documentary. I've known a... by SwamperTom on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 8:46:26 AM
...all tried to stop the banks, and in Kennedy's c... by SwamperTom on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 10:23:21 AM
I'll second that thought Joan, Many of our foundin... by Deborah Dills on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 11:22:24 AM
Actually Bernie Sanders (I) Senator from Vermont d... by SwamperTom on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 1:54:30 PM
Love that man Bernie. If he wasn't so up in years,... by Deborah Dills on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 7:33:30 PM
in a sea of darkness. He would make a good preside... by SwamperTom on Friday, Nov 9, 2012 at 7:39:20 AM
Cremation of Care... by SwamperTom on Friday, Nov 9, 2012 at 7:43:45 AM
is quite misleading.  Obama - whom most claim... by Doc McCoy on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 2:22:41 AM
Your little rant is spoken like the true radical y... by kappie on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 9:46:13 AM
I love the way the Reagan Democrats are always tel... by Samson on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 3:04:03 PM
We have the most grossly unequal distribution of w... by PCM on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 4:34:07 PM
Basically the election left things the same as bef... by Bill Johnson on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 6:00:32 AM
You are right ,little has changed.the rethugs stil... by kappie on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 9:52:19 AM
Now we must realize we can't buy our way out, or t... by SwamperTom on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 8:51:14 AM
Excellent essay, Glenn.I believe that Adam Green's... by Gretchen Hoekelman on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 8:58:25 AM
Prepare for strikes - diverse  types, plannin... by abacus on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 4:22:55 PM
That is what I heard Beohner say, and his aggressi... by Gloria Grening Wolk on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 1:57:35 PM
This is what you get when you are silly enough to ... by Samson on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 3:15:16 PM
Obama hasn't the backbone to do anything his owner... by abacus on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 4:26:12 PM
What will the Obama Democrats do now that they've ... by Samson on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 2:49:38 PM
Obama is a right winger. He only won because there... by Textynn N on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 5:53:16 PM
Hate is Love... Yep I agree. ... by SwamperTom on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 6:30:50 PM
We knew it going in that Obama winning was only re... by Kim Cassidy on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 7:40:21 PM
Hours after U.S. President Barack Obama was re-e... by Kansas Bright on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 8:26:13 PM
Would like to see the actual letter - rather than ... by Doc McCoy on Thursday, Nov 8, 2012 at 9:52:53 PM
".....substantial cuts to entitlement programs suc... by Amy Schreiner on Friday, Nov 9, 2012 at 11:04:49 AM
That's an apt description of the way Congress and ... by Carol Davidek-Waller on Monday, Nov 12, 2012 at 12:31:22 PM