Kyrgyzstan's mass anti-government protests last week were essentially the culmination of more than a decade of disillusionment and dissatisfaction that accumulated in the nation's political, economic and social spheres from the period of Akayev to his successor Kurmanbek Bakiyev, with virtually every Kyrgyz concerned about rising prices and falling standards of living, both issues of little concern and dimly understood in Washington.
BAKIYEV FLEES
The diplomatic logjam over the fate of deposed President Kurbanbek Bakiyev has apparently ended, as on 15 April Russia's Itar-Tass news agency reported that Bakiyev, along with his younger brother Dzhanysh, former head of the country's feared National Security Service (NSS) and the presidential guard and former Defense Minister Bakytbek Kalyev had fled the country. Kazakh Foreign Ministry Spokesman Kazakhstan Askar Abdyrakhmanov subsequently confirmed that their military aircraft arrived in Taras, Kazakhstan. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) office in Bishkek issued a statement that Bakiyev left "as a result of joint efforts by President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan, (U.S. President) Barack Obama and the Russian Federation (President) Dmitrii Medvedev, as well as the active mediation of the OSCE, the UN and the EU." According to interim government member Almambek Shykmamotov, Bakiyev was allowed to leave the country after signing a formal resignation statement.
While Kyrgyzstan's political impasse has been resolved by Bakiyev's sudden departure, expect to see furious behind the scenes politicking in Bishkek, particularly between Russia and the U.S. as both attempt to strengthen their influence with interim Prime Minister Roza Otumbayev's administration at the expense of the other.
Two issues are likely to dominate Kyrgyzstan's political scene in upcoming weeks negotiating as much foreign aid as possible and recovering as much of the money looted by the Bakiyev kleptocracy as possible.
FISCAL DEPREDATIONS BY THE BAKIYEV FAMILY
The scale of the fiscal depredations of Bakiyev's inner circle is quite startling for a country of only 5 million people. According to Natsional'nyi bank Kyguzstana Acting Chairman Zair Chokoev, during the period 7-8 April, when the unrest peaked, the country's largest commercial bank, AziiaUniversalBanke (AUB), controlled by Bakiyev's son Maksim, sent $200 million out of the country.
Such thievery has had an immediate impact on the country's finances; provisional Finance Minister Temir Sariyev said that as the result of such depredations, the country's budget deficit will amount to over $20 million in April alone.
Again outpacing Washington, on 14 April Russian Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin announced that Russia was Kyrgyzstan an immediate grant of $20 million and a soft loan of $30 million, commenting, "I think it is possible to provide humanitarian aid - a grant of $ 20 million for the priority of payments for social support"now, collection of customs and tax payments to ensure the ongoing costs of government in Kyrgyzstan is weak."
WASHINGTON'S INTERIM POLICY
In contrast, Washington has yet to announce any relief aid. Instead, expect the U.S. in the upcoming days to focus obsessively on continued access to the Manas Transit Center airbase, 20 miles from the capital. While the base's lease expires on 7 July, Otunbayeva has already stated that it will be "automatically" extended, though next year the issue is likely to arise again unless Washington institutes some major course corrections in its previous policies towards Kyrgyzstan. Washington has a major uphill struggle ahead, largely of its own making.
Senior leaders in the interim government that took power last week are accusing the United States of allowing Bakiyev family members to enrich themselves with inflated contracts supplying jet fuel to Manas Transit Center. According to provisional government senior members, companies controlled by the president's 32-year-old son, Maksim, who last October was appointed by his father to head the country's newly created Central Agency on Development, Investment, and Innovation, skimmed as much as $8 million a month from daily jet fuel sales to the base of up to a quarter million gallons, utilizing a monopoly and favorable taxes. More than any other single factor, Washington's policies towards the Manas Transit Center have been responsible for alienating Kyrgyz opinion against the U.S. Accordingly, a brief overview of U.S. policies towards the airbase are in order.
MANAS A COZY BUSINESS ARRANGEMENT FROM THE START
The Manas airbase was established on 4 December 2001 under the joint Kyrgyz-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) under the administration of then President Askar Akayev. The Pentagon was granted the right to use the airbase for the bargain rent of $2 million annually, but almost immediately Washington established contracts for fueling and landing rights with companies controlled by Akayev's family, which found the Pentagon paying far higher than prevailing international rates for the base. The Pentagon selected Manas above Kyrgyzstan's other 52 airports because its 14,000-foot runway, originally built for Soviet bombers, could be utilized by USAF C-5 Galaxy cargo planes and 747s to support Operation Enduring Freedom operations in Afghanistan.
THE MARCH 2005 TULIP REVOLUTION - BUSINESS AS USUAL
By early 2005 Akayev's increasingly authoritarian turn and increasing corruption alienated many of his supporters. Another less well-known factor in undercutting his authority were the activities of a number of U.S.-based non-governmental organizations, most notably Freedom House, which published many opposition papers.
