Recession in Europe
(image by www.contrepoints.org)
The European companies lined up to find new business ventures in Iran for a quick buck (or Euro, actually) will further lead to the demise of Europe's already tanking economy. Why and how, you ask? Listen closely as I walk you through it.
Last week, on 20 Jan, The P5+1 and the Islamic Republic of Iran started the implementation of the Iran Deal, officially known as the Joint Plan of Action, an interim deal where Western governments lift certain sanctions (an estimated 7 billion USD worth) in return for Iran making a few, reversible changes to its Nuclear program. Weeks ago, when the Iran Deal was agreed on by all the parties, European companies started lining up, ready to tap Iran's failed economy for their own business interests. A new market was opening, and they'd be damned before they'd miss an opportunity to find a new audience or to harness new resources.
And thus the crowds swarm--rushing to Iran like its Black-Friday at Walmart" someone is bound to get hurt- and it will be those who depend on said European companies.
These companies will invest money in their new-found Iranian market. They will open branches of their stores, of their banks, and of their businesses. They will start to build factories, and they will foolishly enter into long-term contracts to buy any of a series of goods, sanctioned until now. The big CEOs, in their comfortable and glitzy company headquarters in Europe will think everything is well, and likely build their businesses locally even more--with the money they project to make as a result of the new Iranian market. For the 6 months of this Iran Deal, everything will seem like a beautiful spring--reborn, refreshed, and promising.
But this will all have been pre-mature, not because the Iranian people aren't worthy for foreign investment, but because Iran's Islamic Republic is corrupt, radical and Nuclear-Weapons Program oriented.
As the 6-month deadline for the Iran Deal comes to an end, The P5+1 will reassess the Islamic Republic's integrity, and check if it has in fact upheld its end of the deal. But you and I both know, they will not have done so. You and I both know they will have continued to enrich Uranium to high grades, as secretly as possible. You and I both know they will have continued construction at Arak, for the plutonium track. You and I both know, they will have denied IAEA inspectors many-a-time, and will have a pathetic excuse for every single instance. You and I both know they will have been using the new flow of money in Iran's economy to continue to fund not only the Nuclear program, but to support Assad's death squads in Syria. The innocent Iranian people won't really see a Rial, if you will. You and I both know, that the Islamic Regime in Iran will have executed by public hanging, hundreds more individuals for their beliefs (or lack their off), for their sexual orientation, for being a minority, or for "endangering national security" by simply using Twitter or Facebook one too many times.
And then what happens when the agreement falls apart, and the West reinforces the sanctions? What will happen when all those European companies lose the money they just invested? Who will pay the salaries of all the new hires in Europe, with no money? No one. The bubble will burst. Hearts will break. Plans will change--all because European multi-national companies jumped the gun, and got onto the "Iran Train," without doing their due-diligence. The house of cards built on the promise of Iran, will topple and Europe will see economic turmoil yet again.
The saddest truth here, is that even if the Regime were to truly start cooperating with the West on the Nuclear issue, Iran still wouldn't be an ideal climate for foreign direct investment" why? Because the Regime is that corrupt, and good governance is simply non-existent there. Iran's economy will only improve when there is a newly created, democratic and secular government which supports its minorities and upholds the human rights of all who live and work within its borders.