Iran has many options to retaliate against any attack by Israel and/or the United States.
Most terrorism experts say a direct face-to-face confrontation between Iran and the United states is not in the best interests of Iran. They say what is most likely is a mixture of global, terrorist inspired attacks.
Several experts we consulted with said Iran would order or ask a vast network of followers and sympathizers to take action against America and Israel. Hezbollah might step up its action against Israel from Lebanon, for example, and "sleeper" terrorists already inside the U.S. might come to life and commit terror acts in the U.S. There are also known or suspected "sleeper" terror groups in other countries such as Canada and in Europe.
Despite sanctions against Iran that prevent U.S. companies from sending support and parts for Iranian aircraft, Iran still can assemble a credible air strike, most probably against Israel. But many of Iran's pilots have deteriorated flight training credentials and many could be shot down in an engagement.
Iran still has several long range aircraft capable of prividing some level of surveillance of the Persian Gulf and toward Israel. But many of these aircraft are older U.S. models like P-3s and their maintenance in the past several years is suspect. Plus these aircraft have no self defense systems.
President Ahmadinejad also has a corps of highly capable special operations forces from the the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) militias, and the highly specialized and extremely deadly Qods Force. These troops could be used to infiltrate Iraq and attack high priority Iraqi targets like the oil infrastructure and/or U.S. facilities and troops.
Russia today announced that it "resisted" any use of force between Iran and "neighboring powers." This has been seen by diplomats and consultants as a warning to both Israel and the U.S., but most with experience in such matters believe that Russia is not prepared to participate in any conflict militarily itself. Instead, Russia might beef up support to Iran in a number of sectors.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, "I hope the actual actions would be based on international law. And international law clearly protects Iran's and anyone else's territorial integrity."
Christian Science Monitor reporter Scott Peterson discussed this issue of a possible Iranian retaliation at some length in an article today. Among the experts he spoke to is Magnus Ranstorp at the Center for Asymmetric Threat Studies at the Swedish National Defense College in Stockholm.
"One very important issue from a US intelligence perspective, [the Iranian reaction] is probably more unpredictable than the Al Qaeda threat,"- said Ranstorp.
"I doubt very much our ability to manage some of the consequences,"- said Ranstorp.
"If you attack Iran you are unleashing a firestorm of reaction internally that will only strengthen revolutionary forces, and externally in the region,"- Ranstorp told Mr. Peterson. "It's a nightmare scenario for any contingency planner, and I think you really enter the twilight zone if you strike Iran."-
If the United States becomes involved with Iran militarily we might expect a strong anti-U.S. denunciation from the United Nations. Many member nations enjoy the prospect of annoying the U.S. and most feel burned or lied to by the U.S. ever since Colin Powell, while President Bush's first term Secretary of State, gave a long justification for the war in Iraq.
Then there is the internal politics of Iran itself to consider. As Barry Artiste points out in the comments below, Mr. Ahmadinejad's rule in no longer as widely applauded in Iran as it once was. Therefore, we might expect him to act with more judicious use of language and action than he has in the past.
But Israel will never forget that Mr. Ahmadjinedad did famously say that Israel should be "wiped from the map."
"The United States does not need permanent enemies, we have permanent friends," Press Trust of India (PTI) quoted Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said addressing the Council for Foreign Relations on Thursday evening.
Iran has several tankers full of crude that they have been stockpiling because of Bush and Cheney's idiotic schoolyard threats that do nothing except cause even more strain on our international relationships.
We have now invaded and completely destroyed two Muslim countries. Our troops still occupy both of them, with no end in sight - especially if John McCain becomes the next president. Every other Muslim country in the Middle East has condemned our actions, including our allies. Even where we prop up undemocratic governments that profess their political allegiance to the U.S., the overwhelming public opinion is against our actions.
What will happen is exactly what the neo-cons had in their heads the whole time. If we attack a third Muslim country, the entire area will erupt. We will ultimately force ALL the Muslim nations to join together in a new Caliphate that will be completely dedicated to the destruction of the United States and Israel - by any means necessary.
The Saudis have also been stockpiling their oil, and under-reporting production. They have read the writing on the wall, and they have prepared for what is to come. When Admiral Fallon was fired, Iran and the Saudis kicked into high gear.
The United States will be starved for oil to support the total war that they have forced upon the world. There will be no single "front." There will be more than can be counted. North Korea and Syria will unquestionably ally themselves with the new Muslim Caliphate. Pakistan's puppet government will be overthrown and the popuation will insist on joining their brothers in jihad. Turkey also. If Russia does not formally ally itself with our enemies, it will only be "officially" neutral, while helping to train, and supply the monstrosity of an enemy we have created for ourselves.
Muslim countries in Africa will officially or covertly work against us. Venezuela will shut off its oil supply to the U.S., and do all it can to help our enemy.
Bush will get his WWIII, and he will die with the rest of the world in the Armageddon he sought.
That's what Iran will do to "retaliate."
by
JC Garrett (38 articles, 62 quicklinks, 6 diaries, 557 comments)
on Friday, June 20, 2008 at 12:33:20 PM
I was always wondering where do they grow the people who 'analyse' the consequences of unleashing the war while excluding the death.
So, what will happen:
1. if we attack Iran first and foremost we will kill a lot of people, innocent civilians, no matter how 'precise' we will be,
2. Our innocent civilians in all countries in the world, our expatriaits, business people, young people, Peace Corps volunteers, etc will be in mortal danger. Obviously, we will not be able to protect them and the only way would be to evacuate them all. But not all of them will be lucky. Moreover, the other people, the ones who might have had something to do with our people, work for them or have relationships- they will be killed.
3. That sleeper stuff is nonsense. What is not nonsense is that there is a direct link between the Chechens who have an excellent experience in the real terrorism, Albanian mafia and Iranian secret police. That will result in infiltration of the highly trained Chechen- Arab groups into Balkans and Kosovo, also into South America.
4. It will be not just a crime- it will be unleashing war without end. The proper way to deal with such atrocity here would be to immediately impeach Bush and charge him with a crime. Now, about Israel. When I was in Israel it was very obvious even from the official sources there that a very powerful group there understands that the USA wants to use Israel to do dirty jobs. Those people hopefully will never let that happen. Israelis are no fools and they could care less on what Iranians say. They do care about oil they actually receive from there still.
I would advise everyone who wants to discuss succh atrocity to call a spade a spade and start their articles with the 'The possible consequences of the criminal decision to attack Iran.'
That's how it should be.
by
Mark Sashine (51 articles, 19 quicklinks, 244 diaries, 3453 comments)
on Friday, June 20, 2008 at 1:25:54 PM
on Iran, and when it happens the entire country could very well shut down, causing riots, looting, death and destruction like which is taking place now in Iraq. How do we all know that this pernicious Bush junta isn't some rogue element, hell bent on Middle East hegemony and the complete destruction of America and its infrastructure? It is happening right before our very eyes, and most of the people aren't demanding any accountability. What the heck is wrong with this picture?
This isn't some bad horror movie we're talking about here. No, it is the making of a war without end. And if anyone believes that Bush Co. wants peace, think again! What we are seeing is pure evil which needs to be halted before it is too late. It might already be? We may very well have crossed the Rubicon, and the worst is yet to come. There are no checks and balances in this country and our representitives have decieved us all, they've sold us down the river.
US Marine Corp Major General Smedley Butler stated that "war was a racket" well, our entire government has now become just that, a dam racket. We have no say in the matter, none!
by
Munich (0 articles, 66 quicklinks, 12 diaries, 830 comments)
on Friday, June 20, 2008 at 3:53:21 PM
Iran has been quietly buying hundreds of supersonic Sunburn and Yakhonts missles and placing them in concealed positions scattered about the Iranian littoral. There is currently NO defense against these missles due to their speed and low over-water flight level. They also have Kilo-class diesel subs carrying Shkval supercavitating torpedos capable of 200 mph speeds. These torpedos can also be deployed from Iranian small surface craft.
When the US Navy war-gamed this scenario last year, the Red Force commander(Iranian) overwhelmed the fleet's defenses with wave attacks of hundreds of the aforementioned missles counterpointed with suicide boats carrying the Shkval and prepositioned sub attacks as well. The final tally was a total destruction of every major surface vessel inside the Persian Gulf. So they changed the rules to make the Blue team win.
Now consider that result with three carrier battle groups, a total of 40-50 ships or 30% of the entire fleet going to Davy Jones' Locker with the bones of 20-30,000 American sailors, all in an afternoon. At the same time, the Iranian Army can move west from Khoramshahr, take Basra and close the Shatt-al-Arab while tankers will be sunk to block the Hormuz Straits. Then our troops in Iraq will be totally cut off and oil prices will go up to $10/gallon or more.
Then these madmen will have the excuse to use those nuclear weapons they've been itching to unleash since this all started. China, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the world will unceremoniously dump all their petrodollar holdings causing hyperinflation in the US,
by
Ishmael1 (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 31 comments)
on Sunday, June 22, 2008 at 11:58:46 PM
I believe you are closest in your conjecture as to what will happen after an attack on Iran. I certainly would not want to be a resident of Israel at that time either. The stock market would definitely crash as oil production would be decimated and the economy would be devestated. All in all I can't think of one viable reason for creating such a scenario unless you're crazy of course.
by
Archie (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1130 comments)
on Monday, June 23, 2008 at 3:05:15 PM
7 comments
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