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Tag(s): 2008 Democratic Natl Conv; 2008 Elections; Barack Obama; Clinton-Hillary; Hillary Clinton; Hillary Clinton; Obama-Barack
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May 31, 2008 at 06:17:36

Hillary Clinton's Plan for Victory (Seriously)

by Rev. Robert Vinciguerra Page 1 of 2 page(s)

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It’s been a long campaign with a lot of ups, downs, and surprises. The biggest surprise for Hillary Clinton is that she is not the presumptive nominee for her party. The biggest surprise for observers: That she’s still in the race.

Many people, including notable politicians, celebrities, and members of the media have publically questioned why the former First Lady is still campaigning, charging that a win is impossible. Some have even condemned her for it. However, Senator Clinton might see a way that she can win.

June has come and the race isn’t over. Only three contests remain: Puerto Rico on Sunday, June 1st, and on the third day of June, the final Tuesday in a string of Tuesdays that have been blown well out of proportion, voters in Montana and South Dakota will cast the final ballots in the last primaries of the season.

The Obama Argument

Barack Obama, as he and his fervent supporters are quick to point out, leads in delegate count, and has done so since the first ‘Super Tuesday’ this year, which was held on February 5th. By his own count, Obama currently leads Clinton by 201 delegates. Obama’s camp is also eager to point out that he’s won 33 contests to her 18.

The culmination of these points, combined with national poll numbers that show Obama to be favored over Clinton, surrogates, politicians, and the media have all called the race for Senator Obama, and have responded to Clinton’s longevity in this race with consternation and contempt.

The charge levied is this: The only way that Clinton can win is if the unpledged delegates (“superdelegates”) put her over the top, thereby alienating the voters who determined the allocation of pledged delegates.

Clinton’s Roadmap to Win

What is seldom discussed, however, is that the pledged delegates are not required to vote for any particular candidate, regardless of what the voters or caucus goers in their respective states decided.

Unless there is a consensus made by the superdelegates before the Democratic National Convention in August – which may or may not happen – then Hillary Clinton automatically has a method to win, and to do so with the pledged delegates.

It is unlikely, and by that I mean to say virtually impossible, that either candidate can win the appropriate number of delegates to secure the nomination before the convention. Currently, that number ranges between 2,026 and 2,210.

At the convention, the delegates will cast a ballot. On the first ballot they will all likely vote for whichever candidate that they were pledged to vote for. Since neither candidate will win the first ballot, the candidates and surrogates will be free to make arguments and speeches directly to the delegates. The chair of each delegation will be heavily courted by each side, and deals will be made.

It is in this environment that Clinton can make her argument work. She can argue that she is in a better position than Obama to win the general election, which is true. Current estimates show that Clinton will beat McCain by between 116 to 150 electoral votes. It seems virtually impossible for John McCain to defeat her.

Conversely, Barack Obama fares far worse in a McCain match up. Current polling shows a tossup, with a potential McCain victory by only two electoral votes on one hand, to an Obama win with a margin of just 20 on the other. (And that’s if Ohio goes to Obama, which is statistically still up in the air.)

Further, Clinton has consistently made the argument that she can win the states that a Democrat must win in order to win the general election. This is also true, especially with states such as Ohio and Florida. In a general election, she also is ahead in North Carolina, Kentucky, and Virginia, all states that Obama trails Senator McCain in.

At the convention, Clinton only needs to convince the delegations of one or two of the states where she won by a large margin, i.e. California, Pennsylvania, New York, Florida, to cast all of their delegates for her. Expect this to be her strategy.

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www,revrob.com

Founder of "The Rev. Rob Times," (www.revrob.com) Rev. Robert A. Vinciguerra has been a longtime student of journalism. Currently, he holds a government job where is a technical writer, instructional designer, and an IT trainer. From Phoenix, Arizona.

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4 comments

Robert Sargent is co-owner of a Washington State commercial printing company with operations in Seattle and Redmond. He has an Economics degree from the University of Washington and occasionally plays alto sax with the Husky alumni band. An amateur economist, investor and photographer, and fiscally conservative moderate at heart, Robert has been a "yellow-dog Democrat" since the Bush administration "began screwing up the world beyond repair". Active in local and national political races, Mr. Sar...

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Robert SargentRobert Sargent is co-owner of a Washington State commercial printing company with operations in Seattle and Redmond. He has an Economics degree from the University of Washington and occasionally plays alto sax with the Husky alumni band. An amateur economist, investor and photographer, and fiscally conservative moderate at heart, Robert has been a "yellow-dog Democrat" since the Bush administration "began screwing up the world beyond repair". Active in local and national political races, Mr. Sar...

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Nice fantasy...

Not even remotely within the realm of possibilities. Such a reversal would destroy the democratic party, and Hillary would lose. This isn't a zero sum game. Everyone doesn't just show up and vote regardless of what happens along the way. Hillary can't win that way, and win in November.

But, most of all, she can't win that way. The "pledged" delegates are hard core supporters and aren't going to be convinced by dubious polls to change their vote. It is preposterous. Completely ridiculous.

And the polls don't reflect actual voter turnout in November, which will be much higher among conservative Republicans if Hillary is the nominee, and turnout will be higher among Democrats and independents if Obama is the nominee.

Hillary has no power to win, but she does have the powere to destroy the Democrats.

by Robert Sargent (10 articles, 0 quicklinks, 26 diaries, 303 comments) on Saturday, May 31, 2008 at 9:37:07 AM

I'm just me
Jason BaumgartnerI'm just me

Nice post Robert!

I agree wholeheartedly. This article is filled with a lot of inaccuracies. As someone who has been a member of campaigns in the past while also working closely with state level politicians, I can say that pledged delegates will NOT simply jump ship.

Also, the assumption that an entire state will simply hand over all their delegates to a prospective nominee is so outside the realm of reality as to leave me speechless. It just would not happen because it would tear apart the party.

I believe the person that wrote this article had good intentions but simply hasn't really been involved in politics any further than picking up the morning paper or reading a lot of other blogs. There is a lot more to politics than just selecting the nominee -- there is the party's health to consider as well.

The delegates realize that Obama has picked up more delegates thus far than Hillary. Hillary is attempting to change the rules while the game is in progress -- and that just won't fly come August if she is still in this game.

Every day that she delays her concession is another day that hurts the democratic party as a whole.

But I can asure every reader here that Obama will be the Democratic nominee. It is already over -- Hillary is just preparing to litigate her way to the nomination and if she does so, she'll hurt the Democratic party immensely.

by Jason Baumgartner (0 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 1 comments) on Saturday, May 31, 2008 at 12:56:39 PM

Sandy Sand began her writing career while raising three children and doing public relations work for Women's American ORT (Organization for Rehabilitation through Training). That led to a job as a reporter for the San Fernando Valley Chronicle, a weekly publication in Canoga Park, California. In conjunction with the Chronicle, she broadcast a tri-weekly, 10-minute newscast for KGOE AM. Following the closure of the Chronicle, Sand became the editor of the Tolucan Times and Canyon Crier newspapers...

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Sandy SandSandy Sand began her writing career while raising three children and doing public relations work for Women's American ORT (Organization for Rehabilitation through Training). That led to a job as a reporter for the San Fernando Valley Chronicle, a weekly publication in Canoga Park, California. In conjunction with the Chronicle, she broadcast a tri-weekly, 10-minute newscast for KGOE AM. Following the closure of the Chronicle, Sand became the editor of the Tolucan Times and Canyon Crier newspapers...

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The DNC rules committee has spoken

Threats from Harold Iches and Hill supporters after the committee's final vote behaving like Republicans in Florida crashing the vote countion in 2000... all an echo now.

by Sandy Sand (145 articles, 0 quicklinks, 200 diaries, 1388 comments) on Saturday, May 31, 2008 at 8:06:46 PM

Earl of Stirling, Hereditary Governor and Lord Lieutenant of Canada. Author of CASH FOR PEERAGES: THE SMOKING GUN (Lulu Press at www.lulu.com/content/953682). Web site: http://europebusines.blogspot.com/
Lord StirlingEarl of Stirling, Hereditary Governor and Lord Lieutenant of Canada. Author of CASH FOR PEERAGES: THE SMOKING GUN (Lulu Press at www.lulu.com/content/953682). Web site: http://europebusines.blogspot.com/

A long time to August

The time to August is short in normal human terms, but in politics it is a very long time. The Clintons have managed to mess up badly but never count them out. They still want to win the Presidential nomination and failing that they intend to have the Vice-Presidential nomination. It will be interesting. Events in Iran may effect their strategy, depending on how soon a war begins against Iran and Syria. Looks like this will be a most interesting year. Which reminds me of the old Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times".

Stirling

by Lord Stirling (24 articles, 0 quicklinks, 4 diaries, 133 comments) on Monday, June 2, 2008 at 9:19:27 AM