In my letter, I urged Barack to fight to remove the Immunity Provision for the Telecom from the bill in question as he has promised he would. I also urged that in failing to do such, he should vote against the bill.
It is clear to me that barring a miracle, Barack most likely will not be able to mobilize enough votes to strip the provision, and in addition, he will not be able to stop the bill from becoming law. In his voting NO (which is what most of us on the Left wish for), the media will have a field day in describing his first post-Nominee battle and how he lost it. He will be slandered as "ineffective". Couple that with his less than stellar fundraising May numbers, and the attacks that he flip-flopped on Public financing, the media will get their wish; a bludgeon to hammer Obama over the head for as long as they so determine.
As such time, the Republicans will start making their commercial portraying Barack Obama as weak on National Security. They will point to his "pre 2001" mentality, and how enabling terrorists is the reason that he should not be elected. The media will go with that, removing all nuances of the issue (as they always do), and allow the "Bumper Sticker" slogan aimed at Democrats, i.e., they are weak on NS, to rule the airwaves. Democrats who vote for the FISA bill will attempt to distance themselves from Senator Obama. His statement from yesterday will be jutapoxed against his "NO" vote and he will be portrayed as a Flip-Flopper, because the RNC with the assistance of the Media can. Obama will have no explaination for it other than saying that doing what was right won over political pragmatism.
The bill will be signed by George Bush who will call it a victory against Obama and the liberals, and a win for Bush/McCain.
The LIV (low information voters) will downgrade Obama for this action, without them truly understanding the whys and hows of it all. They will be forced to rely on the corporate media to explain it to them. The media will oblige.
Obama's lead against McCain will shrink and he will get a few points behind McCain, in particular, in some of the swing states. Whether the attack on this issue will cost him and us longer than a couple of weeks or throughout the general election is an unknown.
Obama's defense will come in how he chooses to articulate his decision and how he can convey such to the American people. In voting NO on the FISA bill, this will be his only tool. The media may or may not air his rebuttals, because they won't have to if they don't want to.
That leaves the progressive Democratic base, who then will be content in knowing that Obama stood for something, no matter the political cost.
If he so chooses to act as I have outlined, I will offer him solace that in him doing what is right, even if it meant losing, he will have stayed true to himself and to his base.....which in reality is the only way that he can win with us, even if he loses.
We are all aware that with running a Senator, comes the consequences of vunerabilities called votes. We are willing to accept this because standing up for the 4th amendment means more to us than winning an election. It is to some degree a choice, and we are making it.
Some will see the catch 22; others won't care what the catch is.
Whatever Obama chooses to do,, I will respect him for it....because, you see, he cannot win with his base unless he loses that battle (and he will) .....and that is something he will come to understand once he has read the many letters sent to him.
I urge Obama’s base to write to our own senators and to Newspapers in the LTTE format and I am serious about this. If nothing else, we need to provide the support Barack will need prior to the fact. We need to make his fall as cushioned as possible. If we are not willing to do this, then we cannot speak as to what we expect from him. We have less than a week to do what we can to turn the political climate on this issue that he, and by extension us, will have to content against.
The Right have been listening to Left’s discontent of Barack since Friday, and they are strategizing....so don't expect turning the tide to be easily doable.
We are the ones that we have been waiting for, and I don't believe that Barack Obama can win or lose this election on his own. We can b*tch and moan about what he might or might not do and become spectators to the spectacle, OR we can take smart action to enable Sen. Obama to make the right decision. It is work for us to get this done, but Barack has warned again and again that Hope and Change aren’t easy for anyone of us.