Election Irregularities Surfacing re: California's Proposition 8

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The Gay/Lesbian/Bisexual/Transgender (GLBT) Community and its supporters nationwide are mourning and organizing in the wake of last week's announced 52-48% passage of Proposition 8, which eliminates the rights of same-sex couples to marry in the state of California. But an accurate count of the votes may not yet have occurred, according to early indications.

Mirko Ilic, 2004

The integrity of an election takes time to investigate, and it's far too early to draw conclusions. However, consider the following:

Around the world, exit polls are used to determine the need for investigation of elections. In the U.S., the National Exit Poll (NEP, also known as Edison/Mitofsky) now adjusts results to match vote counts before issuing its final polling numbers. Election Defense Alliance downloaded NEP numbers from the internet on election night, however, before poll results were changed to match the official vote count.

This is the exit poll from early in the evening of election night. There were 2,168 respondents, and they break down as follows (a "yes" vote is a vote against same-sex marriage):

Males:
Yes on Prop 8, 48%
No on Prop 8, 52%

Females:
Yes on Prop 8, 48%
No on Prop 8, 52%

View actual screen capture

This is the exit poll from later in the evening. There were 2,240 respondents -- 72 more respondents than in the earlier poll -- and they break down in a very different way:

Males:
Yes on Prop 8, 53%
No on Prop 8, 47%

Females:
Yes on Prop 8, 52%
No on Prop 8, 48%

View actual screen capture

This discrepancy should be ringing alarm bells. Something doesn't add up.

Because exit polls adjusted to match election results are of limited usefulness, this year independent exit polls were conducted in several states by a group including Ken Warren of the Warren Poll, Jonathan Simon of Election Defense Alliance, and Steve Freeman of Election Integrity. This team is still analyzing results of their exit polls, but Simon told Velvet Revolution that their California exit polls, some of which were conducted by Judy Alter and Protect California Ballots, tend to corroborate the findings of the above exit poll that show a defeat of Prop. 8.

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