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Election 2008 - Predictions and What to Expect Tuesday Night

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What we sometimes forget as we head towards another election night is that the polls don't all close at the same time. The difference even in the same time zone can be stark. There are six states on the East coast that have polls that close at 7pm and there are some that close at 8pm and some that close at 9pm. This can cause an unusual ebb and flow to the election night race and coverage. A candidate that does well in several of the states that close at 7pm can appear to be ahead.

We have a race where Barack Obama is clearly ahead and increasing his lead in the last few days of national polling and where we have tightening polls in some battleground states. Making this more complicated this year is that some 32 states allow early voting including some of the states whose polls are tightening.

OK, enough disclaimers. I see Obama winning 359 electoral votes to McCain's 179. I believe that at approximately 10:30pm, enough states will have been called for Obama to give him over 270 electoral votes. I believe Obama will get 54% of the popular vote to McCain's 43%.

Below shows the time I believe each state will have its results called by the various network and cable news networks. An interesting point of this is that after 7pm and the first polls close, McCain will be ahead by a score of 16 electoral votes to 3. That will be the one and only time he is ahead.

State

EVObamaMcCainPolls Close (EST)Time Called (EST)Total Obama Electoral VotesTotal McCain Electoral Votes
Kentucky841567:00 PM7:00 PM08
Vermont358397:00 PM7:00 PM38
South Carolina841557:00 PM7:00 PM316
Score after 7:00pm   316
        
Alabama940598:00 PM8:00 PM325
Connecticut759358:00 PM8:00 PM1025
DC39288:00 PM8:00 PM1325
Delaware360378:00 PM8:00 PM1625
Illinios2162368:00 PM8:00 PM3725
Maine458418:00 PM8:00 PM4125
Maryland1063358:00 PM8:00 PM5125
Massachusetts1264338:00 PM8:00 PM6325
Oklahoma736618:00 PM8:00 PM6332
Score after 8:00pm   6332
        
Mississippi643558:00 PM8:30 PM6338
New Jersey1555428:00 PM8:30 PM7838
Score after 8:30pm   7838
        
Tennessee1144538:00 PM9:00 PM7849
Arkansas646528:30 PM9:00 PM7855
Kansas640609:00 PM9:00 PM7861
Louisiana940579:00 PM9:00 PM7870
Nebraska536599:00 PM9:00 PM7875
New York3163329:00 PM9:00 PM10975
Rhode Island462339:00 PM9:00 PM11375
Wisconsin1057409:00 PM9:00 PM12375
Wyoming335639:00 PM9:00 PM12378
        
Score after 9:00pm   12378
        
Virginia1350477:00 PM9:30 PM13678
Ohio2051447:30 PM9:30 PM15678
New Hampshire452458:00 PM9:30 PM16078
New Mexico556419:00 PM9:30 PM16578
        
Score after 9:30pm   16578
        
West Virginia546507:30 PM9:45 PM16583
        
Score after 9:45pm   16583
        
Indiana1149517:00 PM10:00 PM16594
North Carolina1551497:30 PM10:00 PM18094
Florida2751468:00 PM10:00 PM20794
Missouri1147518:00 PM10:00 PM207105
Colorado954439:00 PM10:00 PM216105
Michigan1754449:00 PM10:00 PM233105
Utah5366110:00 PM10:00 PM233110
        
Score after 10:00pm   233110
        
Georgia1548497:00 PM10:30 PM233125
Pennsylvania2152478:00 PM10:30 PM254125
Arizona1047539:00 PM10:30 PM254135
Minnesota1052459:00 PM10:30 PM264135
South Dakota345529:00 PM10:30 PM264138
Texas3444519:00 PM10:30 PM264172
Iowa7544210:00 PM10:30 PM271172
Nevada5554310:00 PM10:30 PM276172
        
Score after 10:30pm   276172
        
California55623411:00 PM11:00 PM331172
Hawaii4712511:00 PM11:00 PM335172
Idaho4356211:00 PM11:00 PM335176
Washington11563911:00 PM11:00 PM346176
        
Score after 11:00 pm   346176
        
Montana3514910:00 PM12:00 AM349176
Oregon7534411:00 PM12:00 AM356176
        
Score after 12:00 am   356176
        
North Dakota3514711:00 PM1:00 AM359176
Alaska340571:00 AM1:00 AM359179
        
Score after 1:00am   359

179

 

So, of the ten battleground states, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virgina, I give eight to Obama and only Indiana and Montana to McCain. I believe Obama will hold Pennsylvania comfortably.

Obviously, no one should decide they do not need to vote as a result of a prediction. Predictions count on people voting who planned to vote, but at this time, I see a historic victory for Barack Obama.

 

http://www.ibtimes.com/blog/steven-leser_103/bio/

A political blogger for the International Business Times, Steve Leser is a hot national political pundit. He has appeared on MSNBC's Coundown with Keith Olbermann, Comedy Central's Daily Show with Jon Stewart and Russia Today's (RT) Crosstalk with (more...)
 

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Who cares what you think.  Is this jsut an ex... by Leep on Tuesday, Nov 4, 2008 at 7:35:46 PM
This is a political site, we write about politics ... by Steven Leser on Wednesday, Nov 5, 2008 at 9:07:05 AM