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August 15, 2008 at 11:14:24

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And You Thought the U.S. Had Trouble:

by Mike Folkerth     Page 1 of 2 page(s)

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Good Morning Middle America, your King of Simple News is on the air.

I keep focusing on the problems of the U.S. economy and to give all of you a much needed break, I’ll focus on someone else’s problems today; if only to assure you that we aren’t the only idiots in the world.

As most eyes focus on the demise of the world’s largest economy (that would be us), the world’s second largest economy is feeling the pain. Japan is in trouble…again.

Who would have ever put it together that when the world’s largest economy slowed down their purchases from the world’s second largest economy that it would cause them to also slow down? I suppose they used some of those NASA computers to work that one out.

Japan has more problems than Brittney Spears. They live on a bunch of islands that are smaller than California with a population 3.5 times greater than that of the Golden State. Yuck! The population density is 12 times greater than the U.S.

Some 80% of Japan’s landmass is covered by mountains; mountains with volcano’s. Japan has 10% of all the active volcanos in the world. Oh joy.

It would seem that Japan has about everything that a person could want, except oil and minerals of which they have somewhere around none.

Japan is the second largest importer of oil in the world and that oil comes primarily from the Middle East. In the event that some of you haven’t seen the news in the last 2,000 years, the Middle East is somewhat unstable.

Can it get any worse? Well sure it can, Japan also imports most of their food. On a calorie basis, the island nation accounts for less than 40% of their own food production.

Japan decided after the war that the old cliché “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em,” was sound advice and jumped square in the middle of unchecked capitalism. They adopted the buy now and pay later plan that seemed to be working so well for Americans. “Seemed to be” was the key phrase in the last sentence.

While the Japanese are said to have exceptional math skills, there is no sign of applying those skills to their long term economic plan. Yes, exactly like the U.S.

As if all the issues listed above are not problematic enough, Japan has a population problem. With 127 million folks crowded onto their formerly described islands…it isn’t enough; population that is.

Ya see, Japan decided to be as dumb as the U.S. and to put the bill on the tab for the kids to pay. Where they thought that they would put these kids, I have no idea, but it was in fact the plan. However, when the birthrate in Japan fell to 1.25 kids per couple, it busted up the game. The replacement team was dwindling.

In a nation where the lack of landmass, natural resources, and food were major problems, a shrinking population could seem to the moderately sane to be a good thing. But the sane seldom visit the nations of exponential growth capitalism, so let’s look at some of the possible fixes that are recommended to head off Japan’s demise.

You will probably be shocked to hear that growth has been suggested. Yes, encouraging women to have more babies is one solution; cash is being plied in this area as we speak (I’m not making this up).

Another grand idea is to loosen up on the immigration laws and allow a whole lot more foreign folks to join the party. That approach is certainly working well for the U.S of A.

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www.kingofsimple.com

Mike Folkerth is the author of "The Biggest Lie Ever Believed" and is not your run-of-the-mill author of finance and economics. The former real estate broker, developer, private real estate fund manager, auctioneer, Alaskan bush pilot, (more...)
 

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Good assessment of Japan's predicament!

Current ladies fashions look good only on the pregnant, and a few of the naive young with cell phone-addled brains are having babies, and the rumor spreads that these are all sickly due to modern eating habits. I think it is precisely because the Japanese can do math that they have 1.25 children per family (our family had 1.33, i.e., my husband's eldest brother had four). Japan's farmland, which in itself would not be enough to sustain the current population, continues to go increasingly fallow, with such deep-rooted plants taking over that a backhoe will be needed to rehabilitate them. The young go to the cities because that is where economic opportunities still exist and farming is currently unrewarding and unattractive. What girl wants to go out with a guy who doesn't realize he smells like a cow? A new law in our town requiring construction of composting facilities (to satisfy tourists) put most of the dairy farmers out of business. Others are folding due to high grain costs. The remaining farmers in Japan are rapidly aging.

We are buying a $25,000 tractor for $500, because there is no market for them now.

Japan, no doubt, faces starvation in the future. However, it has a few advantages which lead me to believe it can pull through in the long term with a much reduced population. One is that it is still a very closed society, and the foreigners that come make the money they need and then the vast majority go home.

A second is Japan's latent, deeply rooted "socialism." I'm calling it that because that would be the closest match to what we have in the west. Society will compel certain segments to self-sacrifice; others will take the initiative themselves for the good of the rest. We started organic farming because we see that as the road to a long life.

While Japan's sweaty-handed leaders continue to drive the bus of the nation lurchingly down the increasingly potholed road of American capitalism, we feel a kind of sympathy for them as stressed-out human beings striving wholeheartedly (in most cases--there are plenty of psychopaths involved too, but it's harder for a psychopath to rise in Japan outside of the underworld*) for the good of the nation. The arrival of Perry's black ships bombarding Japan's shores a century and a half ago made it clear that they somehow had to deal with imperialism by going along to some extent with capitalism. Looking around, I'd say they did a remarkably good job of it, with the exception of the major misadventure in the 1940s.

*Capitalism makes it a lot easier. Even in Japan's underworld, there are strong checks against the selfish.

by Oh (7 articles, 5 quicklinks, 3 diaries, 321 comments [41 recommended, 0 rejected]) on Saturday, Aug 16, 2008 at 9:12:41 PM

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