The scenarios aren't mutually exclusive. They also ignore what senior political and military officials may have in mind - a far more radical reshaping of the region to Israel's advantage. At its core is ethnic separation and transfering Arab Israelis to a future Palestinian state. They're concentrated in the "Little Triangle" along the Green Line, the Galilee in the north, and Negev in the south.
For decades in the Galilee and Negev, Israel pursued "fierce state-sponsored programmes of 'Judaisation,' " much like settlement expansions in the Territories. It tipped the population to Israel's favor in the Negev by a three to one margin. So far in the Galilee, it 50 - 50, but the long-term trend in both regions disadvantages Israel. A higher Palestinian birth rate is the threat, but efforts are being made to counter it.
In 2003, settling Jews in the two regions became a priority, establishing new towns were ordered, and International Zionist organizations were recruited to help populate them. In addition in late 2002, the Jewish Agency announced a planned 350,000 Galilee and Negev expansion by 2010 to ensure a "Zionist majority" in both areas.
At the same time, the government confronted its greatest Judaisation threat - small "unrecognized" Bedouin Negev farming communities. Their population numbers around 70,000, as many or more live in the Galilee, and Israel so far failed to cluster them in "planned township" reservations.
Today, no new communities are allowed, and existing ones are denied essential municipal services like clean water, electricity, roads, transport, sanitation, education, healthcare, postal and telephone service, refuse removal and more because under the Planning and Construction Law they're illegal.
In 2003, the Sharon government took further measures:
-- it allocated millions of dollars over five years for forceable relocation;
-- reclassified Bedouins as "trespassers" on state land;
-- encouraged settlers (through extra compensation) to colonize the Galilee and Negev;
-- after 2002, the Interior Ministry destroyed village crops by herbicide spraying until courts halted the practice in mid-2004; and
-- after the 2005 Gaza disengagement, announced "Negev 2015" - to clear the area of "scattered" Bedouin communities by house demolitions and replace them with new Jewish settlements.
Cook believes these policies suggest a dramatic shift in Israeli priorities - concentrating on "Judaisation inside Israel over settlements in those parts of the occupied territories that will one day have to be abandoned (for) a new 'Palestinian state.' It reflects a decisive scaling back of Israel's territorial ambitions." Israel instead is focusing on protecting the Jewish state from a growing Arab population, yet it can't put off the inevitable - confronting its demographic problem by "separat(ing) absolutely from its Palestinian citizens."
How at this time isn't known but under consideration is redrawing the Green Line to exclude dense Arab areas like the "Little Triangle." Remaining Israeli Arabs will then be pressured to "identify with the new Palestinian state," carrot and stick approaches will be used, and the latter kind will include denying non-Jews essential benefits to encourage them to leave.
Holdouts will be forced to sign loyalty oaths pledging allegiance to Israel as a "Jewish and democratic state." Added pressure will be made to get them to:
-- transfer their citizenship to the Palestinian state;
-- downgrade them to permanent residents or guest workers;
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