How Was Election 2004 Stolen?

Now imagine yourself as a would be election stealer on November 2nd 2004. You know by midday that turnout is up massively, and you have a fair idea from the answers to exit poll questions that this is bad for your candidate. Bush is getting hammered in the small towns and the rural base is not turning up to vote.

By 5pm EST (3pmPDT) you know that you are losing Florida and Ohio and that you are losing the popular vote by a small margin.

What do you do?

You expected this because this is precisely what your pre-election polling was telling you would happen. Your pre-election game plan is focused around winning the electoral college i.e. the swing states.

In each swing state there is a plan and a team in place to push the President's vote over the important margin required for victory. The Exit polls tells you how much vote needs to be stolen (discarded, shifted, padded) in each critical swing state to win narrowly - but convincingly enough to minimise the risk of an recount.

You remember what happened in 2000.

And your pre-election game plan also requires a victory in the popular vote.

In 2000 it was largely because he won the popular vote that Al Gore was able to hold out as long as he did over Florida. Therefore in 2004 Bush needed a significant majority in the popular vote as well to avoid a protracted inquiry in one of the swing states which could potentially go sour.

In order to do that Bush needed to pad the vote all over the country with millions of votes.

This is supported by more of the factual evidence found in the election outcomes. If you look to find the location of Bush's 11 million + new voters you find that they are predominantly on the East Coast and in the Mid-East.

In sheer numeric terms Bush gained far and away the most votes in Texas and Florida, 900k and 700k respectively. 60% of all Bushes new votes, 5.2 million votes, were gained in just 11 states…FL, TX. NY, OH, PA, GA, MI, NJ, TN, NC, IL. Add in another 8 states and you get to 82% of all bush's new votes or 7.1 million… the states are WI MN IND AL OK KY AZ LOU & MD. In percentage terms Florida and Georgia (both heavily Diebold equipment using states) were the standouts with 32% gains respectively.
- Dem Underground: "George Bush's 8 Million New Votes Found – STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

And so as the evening progressed on November 2 2004 it was possible to imagine that the vote stealers got to New Mexico and stopped having ensured that by then Bush comfortably had his margin.

However one can also imagine that winning the popular vote for Bush would not be an exact science.

Padding smaller precincts in Republican controlled areas is more likely to be noticed statistically. You cannot steal enough votes in Utah and Wyoming to even make a dent in the popular vote.

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