-- Israel's rivals will be economically and politically crippled as will Palestinians in the Territories and inside Israel;
-- Gulf states will also be weakened, including Saudi Arabia; and one major out-of-region goal may be achieved -
-- containing China by controlling its main oil source; it may also be easier to dismember the country the way the Soviet Union was dissolved.
The goal is grandiose, risky and its chance of succeeding highly improbable. Consider Russia under Vladimir Putin. Contained under Boris Yeltsin, it's no longer a pushover. In a largely ignored June 2007 speech, Putin highlighted deteriorating US-Russian relations post-9/11 with alarm. Bush administration policies were threatening and endangered his country's security:
-- US military bases encircle it;
-- former Soviet states were recruited into NATO;
-- offensive missiles were installed on its borders on the pretext of missile defense;
-- allied Central Asian regimes were toppled to Washington's advantage; and
-- US-backed Serbian, Ukrainian and Georgian "pro-democracy" groups incited political instability in Moscow.
These actions convinced Russian hard-liners that America plans regime change and further fragmentation of the Federation. China sees this, too, and knows it may be next. It's gotten both powers to ally in two organizations for their own self-defense and to compete with the US for control of Central Asia's vast reserves - the Asian Energy Security Grid and the more significant Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) that was formed in 2001 for political, diplomatic, economic and security reasons as a counterweight to an encroaching US-dominated NATO. Other regional powers may also join one or both alliances, including India, Iran and even South Korea and Japan as a new millennium Great Game unfolds.
On the other side are the US and Israel with the Occupied Territories a test laboratory for what they have in mind for the region. Israel has been at it since the 1967 war when the idea was to expel Palestinians to Jordan because "Jordan is Palestine." The only debate was how to do it.
At the same time, Israel long considered dismembering Arab countries into feuding mini-states, and in the early 1980s, Haaretz's military correspondent, Ze'ev Schiff, wrote that Israel's "best" interests would be served by "the dissolution of Iraq into a Shi'ite state, a Sunni state and the separation of the Kurdish part." Ever since, Israel implemented this practice in the Territories along with testing urban warfare tactics, new weapons and crowd control techniques. Workable or not, it's been a boon to business and it's built Israel's economy around responding to violence at home and everywhere.
Israeli technology firms pioneered the homeland security industry, still dominate it, and it's made the country the most tech-dependent one in the world and its fourth largest arms exporter after the US (far and away the biggest), Russia and France. The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is one of its biggest customers for high-tech fences, unmanned drones, biometric IDs, video and audio surveillance gear, air passenger profiling, prisoner interrogation systems, thermal imaging systems, fiber optics security systems, tear gas products and ejector systems and much more.
With products like these and lessons learned from the Territories, Israel believes it can abandon the old puppet strongman model of controlling populations. It wants no part of a "Palestinian dictator" who might encourage Palestinian nationalism, challenge Israeli rule, and disrupt settlement development plans in the Territories. Building them depends on keeping Palestinians divided, weak, unable to resist, and easier to remove from land Israel wants to incorporate into a greater Israel that includes south Lebanon.
After the 1967 war, Israel prevented new Palestinian leaders from emerging and first tried to manage the population along family or communal lines by co-opting its leaders or eliminating ones who became obstacles. By 1981, Sharon (as defense minister) refined the scheme into what was named "Village Leagues" that were local anti-PLO militias. The system was abandoned, however, when Palestinians rebelled against their collaborating leaders so Israel tried new approaches.
Most important was the Muslim Brotherhood (that had roots in Egypt) that later became Hamas in the late 1980s. Israel, at the time, believed traditional Islamic elements were more easily managed than PLO nationalists, would later learn otherwise, and it led to a radically new experiment - the Oslo process. It began secretly with a post-Gulf War weakened PLO, specified no outcome, and let Israel delay, refuse to make concessions, and continue colonizing the Territories. For their part Palestinians renounced armed struggle, recognized Israel's right to exist, agreed to leave major unresolved issues for indefinite later final status talks, and got nothing in return.
I am a 72 year old, retired, progressive small businessman concerned about all the major national and world issues, committed to speak out and write about them.
Jonathan Cook's analysis is a TEXT BOOK lesson which should be taught at schools and colleges all across the Middle East. Bits and pieces of his observations are obvious to those of all ages who see, think and analyse. Most, however, do not know what to do about it because of apathy or the extremely limited opportunities available to them in the police states they live in BUT South Lebanese, Gazans and Iranians are providing examples. Like it or not for the US and Israel what is emerging and will continue to grow will definitely not be palatable to both. Enough is enough!
by
syed mahdi (1 articles, 0 quicklinks, 0 diaries, 129 comments)
on Tuesday, February 5, 2008 at 2:11:32 AM
2 comments
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