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Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

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PA 52.5 34.9 185

In Ohio, Obama's share of 50,000 late votes declined from 50.3% on Election Day to 32.3%. Romney's share also declined from 48.2% to 39.2%. Other third parties gained from 1.7% to 28.5%.  In North Carolina, the Election Day recorded vote has declined by 4,000.

State and National Exit Polls

The late votes can be viewed as a proxy for the unadjusted state exit polls. The exit poll naysayers cannot use the worn out bogus claim that a) late poll "respondents" misrepresent how they voted and b) there is a differential response: Democrats are more anxious to be interviewed than Republicans.

But all we have is the 2012 National Exit Poll which is always forced to match the recorded vote. It shows that Obama was a 50-48% winner. All demographic crosstabs were forced to conform to the recorded vote.

The National Exit Poll crosstabs and corresponding True Vote adjustments show that the Democrats had a 39-32% Party-ID advantage. In 2004, the Final NEP 37-37 split did not agree with the pre-election survey 38-35%.

Similarly, Bush's 53% approval rating did not match the unadjusted exit poll 50% or the 11 pre-election poll 48% average. The bogus 53% National Exit Poll approval had the effect of inflating Bush's total share to match the recorded vote.

In 2012, about 80 questions were asked of over 25,000 exit poll respondents. But the most important crosstab was missing: Who did you vote for in 2008?  Maybe it's because it resulted in an impossible returning voter mix in each of the 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008 elections. That's why the True Vote Model always determines a feasible mix of returning voters based on prior election votes cast - and the bogus adjusted Final Exit Poll that is forced to match the recorded vote is replaced by the True Vote - which reflects True Voter Intent.

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As in every presidential election since 1988, the Democrat Obama did much better than the recorded vote. If the Late Votes are representative of the total vote, they are another confirmation of systematic election fraud. Why would the late votes always show a sharp increase in the Democratic vote share?

2000: 102.6 million votes recorded on Election Day. Gore led 48.3-48.1%.

Gore had 55.6% of the 2.7 million late votes.

2004: 116.7 million votes recorded on Election Day. Bush led 51.6-48.3%.

Kerry had 54.2% of the 4.8 million late 2-party votes.

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2008: 121 million votes recorded on Election Day. Obama led 52.3-46.3%.

Obama won 10.2 million late votes by 59.2-37.5% He won the 131 million recorded votes by 52.9-45.6%, a 9.5 million vote margin. But he did much better in the unadjusted National Exit Poll: 61-37% (17,836 respondents, a 31 million vote margin. He also won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82,388 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%, a 23 million margin. Obama had an identical 58.0% in the True Vote Model, exactly matching and confirming the state exit polls.

Late Vote Questions

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I have Master's degrees in Applied Mathematics and Operations Research and began my career as a Numerical Control Manufacturing Engineeer for a major Defense/Aerospace manufacturer. I was employed in the Corporate Finance Division of several major (more...)
 

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Late Votes and the True Vote Model indicate that Obama may have won by 16 million votes

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Just like in 2000, 2004, and 2008, the Democrat ... by Richard Charnin on Wednesday, Nov 28, 2012 at 1:34:43 AM
Great article and site!... by Andrew Schettino on Wednesday, Nov 28, 2012 at 8:10:29 AM