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We yearn for civic character but satisfy ourselves with symbolic gestures and celebrity circuses. We perceive no greatness in our leaders, a new meanness in ourselves. Small wonder that each new election brings a new jolt, its aftermath a new disappointment. Not long ago, America was more than the sum of its parts. Now, it is less. Around World War II, we were proud as a people but modest as individuals. Fewer than two people in ten said yes when asked, Are you a very important person? Today, more than six in ten say yes. Where we once thought ourselves collectively strong, we now regard ourselves as individually entitled. Yet even while we exalt our own personal growth, we realize that millions of self-actualized persons don't add up to an actualized society.
Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning
Barack Obama became the 1st Generation Xer to be elected President of the United States. His background is a classic Nomad story. He has lived the life of a wanderer, living all over the globe, a child of divorce, fatherless, raised by grandparents, and a free agent in his career. Generation X grew up as abandoned children and alienated young adults. Generation X leaders will be pragmatic, savvy and practical. Obama has proven thus far to be pragmatic and able to get his agenda initiated. Previous Nomad leaders who proved to be highly competent doers during a time of Crisis include Dwight D. Eisenhower, George Patton, and Harry Truman. You may not agree with Obama's plans or policies, but it is clear to anyone that he is an intelligent, pragmatic man that will institute dramatic change in the policies of the United States.
It is very likely that Barack Obama will lead the country into the next Crisis. He will not lead us out of the Crisis, as it is unlikely to subside until 2025. As the Unraveling transitions into Crisis the apathy reflected in historic low voter turnout will reverse itself as Americans become mobilized by the Crisis. The economy always undergoes wrenching transformations during a Crisis. The U.S. economy will likely be racked by panic, depression, inflation and war. We have witnessed a preliminary financial panic, but the real panic will be much more traumatic. The separateness and blame witnessed during the Unraveling will transform into gathering and family togetherness. McMansions will become useful as three generations will more frequently live under one roof. Immigration will decline as the population will fear outsiders and place strict restrictions on foreigners entering the country. During the coming crisis, our culture will likely be cleansed, censored, and harnessed for the public good. The current ongoing financial debacle will ultimately contribute to the Crisis causing trigger of a worldwide oil shortage.
Peak Oil + Green Energy = Crisis
"But I guess it just reminds me that as a society, we don't have the ability to actually come to grips with a crisis until it hits us in the face. I am discouraged enough now to think that we're going to have to have a really nasty shock before we wake people up. The most optimistic estimate for the average depletion rate of the world's currently producing oilfields is between 4% and 5% annually, or about four million barrels per day at our current rate of production. That means that each year we must find enough new oil to first replace those four million barrels of lost daily production before we even add enough to meet new demand. This is all the more worrisome because world oil discovery of new reserves has been slowing since the mid-20th century."
Matt Simmons
Matt Simmons has been a lone voice in the wilderness warning Americans about the impending crisis that will be caused by Peak Oil. His prediction of a worldwide peak in crude oil production at 73 million barrels per day in 2005 has proved correct. Worldwide total liquids production peaked at 86 million barrels in 2008. All of the easy oil and gas in the world has been found. Additional supplies will be found deep below the ocean, in challenging arctic regions, in tar sands, and shale. It will be dramatically more expensive to extract oil from these sources. Oil discoveries have been in a steady decline since the 1970's.
The United States has been dependent on 600 million barrels of oil from Mexico every year. By 2012 Mexico will become a net importer of oil, so 600 million barrels of oil will need to be replaced. Iran's oil production is in decline as capital investment has been ignored for years. Russia's production has peaked. Saudi Arabia continues to lie about its ability to ramp up production. Their oil fields are 40 years old and in terminal decline. By 2012, the world will only be able to produce 80 million barrels per day. There is no doubt that demand in 2012 will be higher than today's 85 million barrels per day as China, India and other developing countries continue to grow. Even a Wall Street economist could predict what will happen to prices.
Peak oil will have the most dramatic affect on America. We have 5% of the world's population, but use 25% of the world's energy. Practically 85% of the world barely uses energy. World population of 7 billion will likely grow to 10 billion by 2030. China and India both are selling more cars annually than the U.S. As people throughout the world enter the middle class, they want cars, TVs, and modern appliances. Energy demand cannot be turned back. Infrastructure constraints will exacerbate the coming energy crisis. The NIMBY crowd has managed to keep any refineries from being built in the U.S. since 1976. Our energy infrastructure is made of steel and is rusting away. It would take trillions to upgrade the energy system. These investments will not be made. The geologists and other experienced oil men are retiring, and no one is replacing them. Matt Simmons' recommendation for the upcoming crisis is DOA:
"We should basically be going back to creating a village economy, so that we really reduce the energy intensity of how we live," he says. "We need big time conservation, not feel-good conservation. Make things where they're used. You'll end long-distance commuting, and we have the tools to do that now with webcams. Grow food locally. Grow food in your backyard. If they're not commuting, people will have time to do that."
The Green Agenda that is sweeping the country and is fully supported by the Obama administration will be the final nail in the coffin. The blueprint of success for the Green Agenda is ethanol. Government subsidized a fuel that required more energy to produce than it provides. The mal-investment in ethanol plants led to a boom and the usual bust when government interferes in the free markets. The use of corn for fuel caused prices to rise for other food crops and meat. With the crash in oil prices, ethanol plants have been going bankrupt at an accelerating rate. Renewable energy and green jobs are the catch phrases being used by Obama and the Democrats pushing the Al Gore led agenda.
"I believe it is appropriate to have an 'over-representation' of the facts on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience."
Al Gore
I'd like to know the difference between over-representation and lying. The real inconvenient truth is that the United States depends on oil, natural gas, and coal to supply 87% of its energy, with nuclear power providing another 7%. The beloved solar, wind and geothermal sources supply 1.5% of our energy needs. Harry Reid and his green disciples believe coal and oil are ruining the world. They want to eliminate the fuels that power 87% of our economy. Maybe they should just keep implementing their economic policies and keep the country in a permanent recession, as carbon emissions have declined over the last three years. Their false science claims, scare tactics in grade schools, and use of green catch phrases will not generate the energy needed to run this country.
The green extremists want to eliminate coal as an energy source in the U.S. Even though nuclear energy emits no Carbon Dioxide, it is unacceptable to the green extremists. There is just one small problem. The chart below shows that coal and nuclear provide 72% of all the electric power in the United States. Renewable energy sounds good, but it cannot replace our existing sources. Inconvenient facts like no ability to distribute any energy created by wind and solar to the places that use the energy are completely ignored by green extremists. Our transportation system depends on oil to provide 96% of its energy. I don't think anyone will be commuting to work in a solar car or wind powered car in the near future. A plug in car will require electric power that comes from coal and nuclear plants.
