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Analyst Answer: No. It only reinforced it. What's Next? Analyst Answer: If history as outlined above is an indicator, and if in fact Mr. Chavez is following Bolivar's lead/model, one can definitively argue he intends to remain President indefinitely whether achieving that through "legitimate?" Constitutional reform with another Referendum(s) or as last resort, follow again in Bolivar's footsteps, Dictatorship. Did anyone ask the fundamental and telling question "Why was this term limit abolition (part of the Referendum) so absolutely urgent, if not crisis-like to vote on and resolve, when considering Mr. Chavez still has "six years" left in his term (ends in 2013)? If the people and social programs were so critically front & center important to the government, why were they (the people's welfare) not the stand alone Referendum item, rather than what they turned out to be, sacrificed for a (selfish) Referendum earmark? One might conclude if Mr. Chavez is really as sincere about helping the populace as he claims, then the next Referendum should be "more people serving, less self serving". Also see original article on Vladimir Putin connection. For Mr. Chavez, what it means is that there will now be 5 more "potential" Referendums to get it right, each time (lessons) learning from the last. Odds are, that given his sheer unrelenting ambition and determination to win (at all cost), at some point he will get it right (from his perspective). Analyst Note: While the Analyst notes that "potentially" 5 other (derivative) Referendums are theoretically possible, it should be noted that Venezualen Constitution does not allow the President to seek the "same amendment" twice during the same term. However it is possible for them to become law through other means such as popular initiatives and other constituent means. That said, while Mr. Chavez in all probability will not go back to the Referendum trough 5 times over the remaining 5 years in his final term, he must be given credit as a clever, astute, shrewd and incredibly determined politician to come up with some "derivative" ("same" endgame but "different" Referendum wording) scheme and/or popular initiative to legitimately circumvent the Constitution "same" amendment issue, an issue he views as a hurdle, not an obstacle. And in the unlikely case he fails potentially by "as many as" 6 times by (derivative) Referendum, odds are even greater, if not done a deal, he won't fail at his first try at Dictator in 2013. And in the final analysis, "graciously" losing the "2007" Referendum means anything but the "President for Life" issue being closed. In fact, it "ain't" over, by any measure. The Venezuelan and global community should save the celebrations, as this loss is not the end of Mr. Chavez' march toward permanent power. Rather, it's just the beginning.
Brock Novak is a freelance Military and Geo-Political Analyst. He is credited with coining the contextual term "COMMULISM" (COMMUnism fueled by capitaLISM), the "Commulism Series", and creating the "Commulism Response Framework" (CRF). Among others, his credits further extend to coining and defining the 21st century concepts of "Fusion Warfare" and "Fission Threat Environment", as well as the contextual terms "Pandanomics", "Benevolent Terrorism", "Phased and Jammed Democracy". Coming: The launch of COMMULISM.COM - A website dedicated to increasing the U.S. government and public awareness of this, the greatest near and long term threat to U.S. economic and national security.
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