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Obama's Path To The Nomination

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Message Stephen C. Rose
The inaction in Michigan followed a similar collapse of her effort to seek another matchup with Mr. Obama in Florida, where, as in Michigan, she won an earlier primary held in violation of party rules.

Without new votes in Florida and Michigan, it will be that much more difficult for Mrs. Clinton to achieve a majority in the total popular vote in the primary season, narrow Mr. Obama’s lead among pledged delegates or build a new wave of momentum.

Mark Penn says superdelegates will not decide until June. Every effort of the Obama campaign needs to be focused on achieving the same small flow of superdelegates to Obama that has been operating for the last month or so.

This means a continued emphasis on content in speeches that will show that Barack is comfortable in his continued affirmation of Pastor Wright.

One "spin" on this which will counter the Buchanan-Hannity mantra is to continually emphasize how selective opponents have been in mining the Wtight DVDs. If they did the same thing with the New Testament they would come out with Judas hanging himself and the statement Go thou and do likewise.

Wright did not say these things every Sunday or once every year. These are one time statements that are reprehensible when taken out of context and turned into an incessant wall of sound.

Another more subtle point is that Wright was not saying a simplistic goddamn America, he was saying what a faithful translation of Jesus would show he too was saying -- uttering a prophetic denunciation to manifest God's presumed attitude. Toward Israel, toward America,

Nagourney's article concludes:

In truth, in interviews, Mrs. Clinton’s advisers said that task was tough and growing tougher and that the critical questions were what would happen with Florida and Michigan and the possibility of developments involving Mr. Obama’s relationship with his spiritual adviser, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.

The fight over Florida and Michigan is just partly about delegates. Victories in new primaries in those states are among the only realistic ways for Mrs. Clinton to erase Mr. Obama’s advantage in the total popular vote.

Mr. Obama’s edge over Mrs. Clinton is 700,000 votes out of 26 million cast, excluding caucuses and the disputed Florida and Michigan results. About 12 million people are eligible to vote in the remaining contests.

Aides to the two candidates said even with the best possible showing for Mrs. Clinton in the states ahead, it was hard to see how she could pass Mr. Obama without Michigan and Florida.

She received 300,000 more votes than Mr. Obama in Florida in January. In Michigan, where none of her major opponents were on the ballot, she drew 62,220 more votes than the rest of the opponents. Mrs. Clinton’s advisers said that absent some deal to seat the delegates from those states, the campaign would still argue that the popular vote in Michigan and Florida be counted.

“The popular vote is the popular vote for all to see,” said Harold Ickes, a senior adviser to Mrs. Clinton. “For people to claim that because the delegates weren’t seated you can’t count the popular vote seems somewhat goofy.”

Yet that could be a tough argument to make. None of the candidates campaigned in Michigan or Florida, and Mr. Obama’s name did not appear on the Michigan ballot.

Finally, Mrs. Clinton’s aides hope that disclosures about Mr. Obama’s past like the one involving Mr. Wright could give superdelegates’ pause. Mr. Devine said he thought that at least in terms of Democratic primary voters Mr. Obama had turned the furor to his advantage with his speech on race.

“Obama, confronted by an issue that was boiling, seemed to wade into it with a speech that was in many ways profound,” Mr. Devine said. “As a result, now these people who were so interested and awakened by his candidacy are back with him again. Instead of this being a setback, it becomes an opportunity.”

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Born in NYC, attended Oberlin & Trinity Schools, then Exeter and Williams (Phi Beta Kappa 1958). Worked with the Reverend James Robinson, finished Union Theological Seminary in NYC (1961). Joined Student Interracial Ministry in Nashville. Founded (more...)
 
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