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QE Shell Game

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"The Eurozone downturn gathered further momentum in September, suggesting that the region suffered the worst quarter for three years. The flash PMI is consistent with GDP contracting by 0.6% in the third quarter and sending the region back into a technical recession."

"We had hoped that the news regarding the ECB's intervention to alleviate the debt crisis would have lifted business confidence, but instead sentiment appears to have taken a turn for the worse, with businesses the most gloomy since early-2009 due to ongoing headwinds from slower global growth." 

"This gloom is clearly reflected in headcounts falling at the fastest rate since January 2010 as companies seek to adjust to weaker demand.

"At the same time, input costs have risen markedly, linked largely to higher oil prices. Weak demand has meant companies have been unable to pass these costs on to customers, meaning output prices fell again in September. The combination of higher costs and lower selling prices will inevitably hit profit margins."

"Some good news came from an easing in the rate of contraction in Germany, though the rate of decline accelerated markedly in France and a deepening downturn was also evident in the periphery." 

"It remains too early to say, however, whether Germany will continue to buck the trend, especially as it continued to see a strong rate of loss of new orders in both manufacturing and services."

Overall contraction is accelerating. Eurozone countries are deeply troubled. So is Britain. What's coming looks worse than 2008. Deficits keep rising. Budgets are unsustainable. Growth is nonexistent. Bailout costs are rising. 

The implication for world economies is clear. They're interconnected. What affects Europe spreads everywhere. Expect worse ahead than 2008.

On September 16, the Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin (GEAB) headlined "The Global Economy Sucked into the Black Hole of Geopolitics," saying:

It's "no longer possible to hide the global economy's tragic state behind the pretext of the 'Euro or Greek crisis.' "

All major world economies "are entering recession or slowing growth simultaneously, leading the socio-economic and financial world into a black hole."

As a result, GEAB "maintains its June 2012 Red Alert" ahead of worse coming. It cites key factors without modern precedent. They're heading world economies for a "double shock."

"Only Wall Street, for a certain time, will be able to continue surfing on record levels until one 'beautiful morning' everything collapses due to a sudden awareness that the real economy is sinking into depression."

"Indeed all the signals are already on red: employment isn't moving up, the jobs created are paid very much less than those lost, poverty is exploding throughout the country".and the US multinationals have increased announcements of falling profits for the second half of 2012 and 2013, returning to the levels of 2008/009, typical of a recession period."

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I was born in 1934, am a retired, progressive small businessman concerned about all the major national and world issues, committed to speak out and write about them.

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