It is incumbent on them to make a stab at coming up with better alternative policies, but -- as in George Kennan's case -- this is not a prior requirement.
Great powers can mitigate the effects of great mistakes, especially if they have the good sense and humility to reach out for help. But the key decision to halt a futile course can -- and must -- be made as soon as its futility is clear, even if the details of a more promising alternative policy remain to be worked out.
I think Kennan was right in his December 1965 article in proposing a multilateral path toward a solution in Vietnam. Something similar might be possible for Afghanistan today.
As Sonali Kolhatkar suggested Monday in Foreign Policy in Focus, if the U.S. would withdraw from Afghanistan, the Taliban's raison d'être there would be greatly weakened. She added:"If the United States were to take the lead in regional talks between Pakistan, India, Iran, Russia, and China to address the Pakistani government's fears of a hostile regime in Afghanistan, it would go a very long way toward undermining the Taliban."
Helicopters Down; Hawks Up
By way of footnote: After an American Chinook helicopter was shot down over Iraq on Nov. 2, 2003, killing 16 U.S. troops, I was reminded of a similar guerrilla attack on U.S. forces in Pleiku, Vietnam, on Feb. 7, 1965.
President Johnson seized on the Pleiku incident to start bombing North Vietnam and to send 3,500 Marines to South Vietnam with orders to engage in combat (beyond the earlier advisory role for U.S. troops), marking the beginning of the Americanization of the war.
When the Chinook went down in Iraq 38 years later, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld made it a point to emphasize that the Iraq War was still "winnable." (It is hard to know whether he really believed that -- his reputation for candor being somewhat tarnished.)
Suffice it to note that Rumsfeld's comment reminded me of Pleiku and spurred me to write an article exactly six years ago right after the helicopter crash in Iraq. I titled it "Helicopter Down." And, in an attempt to warn against a Vietnam/Pleiku-style overreaction, I wrote, five times, that the Iraq war was "unwinnable"--no matter how many more U.S. troops might be sent into the fray.
It seems an appropriate day, then, to remind ourselves that when choppers go down, hawks go up in influence. Two more helicopters went down just last week. So, for what it may be worth, let me state the same judgment today regarding Afghanistan
The war in Afghanistan is UNWINNABLE.
Quick. Somebody please tell President Obama.
