President Zardari has not yet officially approved the peace deal. If it works, he will take credit for it. If it fails he will say that he knew it would fail - that that is why he didn't support it. The Pakistan Army has said that it will not remove troops from the areas under its control unless "real peace" is established and TTP militants disarm themselves. Sufi Mohammad has taken his followers and moved into Swat and has started negotiations with Fazalullah on behalf of the NWFP government. Public opinion in Pakistan is that Fazalullah, who has been responsible for killing numerous people and destroying a lot of property, should be brought to justice.
The peace deal at the moment allows Fazalullah to escape with impunity. Some commentators are rightly pointing out that the Pakistan Army is skeptical of this peace deal. Personally, I think that this deal should have been decided by vote in either the NWFP parliament or in the National Assembly of Pakistan for it to have real legitimacy. But then again, the very corrupt parliament of Pakistan has been unable to deal with the most disturbing issues facing Pakistan in the past so it's naive to assume that they would do otherwise this time around.
U.S. Involvement in Pakistan's Internal Affairs
Most interesting was the reaction of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who was cautious in her comments when speaking to reporters in Japan. She said Pakistan's efforts still needed to be "thoroughly understood" before she could comment. Christine Fair, a South Asia specialist with the RAND Corporation, said, "The real reason for [Hillary] being silent is there's really no good answer" in Washington for what is happening in Pakistan.
The last time a comprehensive peace deal was done between the Pakistan government and pro-Taliban militants was in 2004, in a place called Shakai in tribal areas of Pakistan. The deal was between Nek Mohammad who was then a TTP militant - and the Pakistan government. After the agreement was reached, a U.S drone-fired Hellfire missile killed Nek Mohammad and the deal was surely finished. Will another U.S drone missile be fired at TTP leaders or Fazalullah, or Sufi Mohammad?
Future of the Peace Accord
Sufi Mohammad has moved into Swat in the form of a large convoy, reportedly 9000 people, all of whom are his followers. Note that the followers of Sufi Mohammad and Fazalullah are not on the best of terms with each other either. Sufi Mohammad had virtual control over Swat during the 90’s. Now he has no power on the ground. If the peace deal dies, will we see a conflict between Sufi Mohammad and Fazalullah? What happens then? Which side will Pakistan support? Or will the TTP and TNSM join hands?
These are some disturbing questions which are very difficult to answer at this moment. At this time, the biggest concern is that people who had left the area need to be brought back to their old homes. Major construction work needs to be done to rebuild the area into what it once was. Just one example is the need to restore the ski resort which is an important recreational resource and source of income for the people. But all that can only happen when this peace pact has matured and been in place for a while. Recently, Sufi Mohammad has been negotiating with Fazalullah but they have not yet reached a breakthrough. Fazalullah is asking for removal of the Pakistan Army from the valley. The Pakistan Army is unlikely to agree. Already the Pakistan Army Chief has met with the Prime Minister and the President and they agree that the Army must remain on the ground in Swat. In the meantime, just one day after the ceasefire in Swat, a local correspondent for Swat's Geo TV was shot and killed by unknown gunmen. He had been covering the Swat chaos for the last two years. This has brought angry protests from journalists and people from all walks of life. As of February 21st, Fazalullah has agreed to a long-term cease fire in talks with Sufi Mohammad.
The new line taken by the U.S is that Pakistan is the root cause of trouble in Afghanistan. The Barack Obama regime in Washington has adopted a new doctrine which it calls "AfPak", a term that couples two sovereign countries as one for the foreign policy agenda of the U.S. This is seen as arrogant and degrading by the Pakistani public. Instead of dealing with Pakistan as an independent nation, they are confusing the history and issues of Pakistan and Afghanistan. In effect, "AfPak" does not respect the history or sovereignty of either country. To be sure, in Pakistan we have our problems and our international image as a country has not always been what we would like. Many people around the world have an image of Afghanistan that includes perpetual wars, Taliban, Osama bin Laden, the 9/11 attacks, poppy fields and heroin traffic, warring tribes, chaos, etc. "AfPak" overlays this image on Pakistan.
The root cause of all trouble in this region is U.S occupation of Afghanistan. The suspicion shown by the U.S of the Swat peace deal is not new. The U.S has always been skeptical of peace deals in Pakistan’s tribal areas. The reason is that permanent peace deals will result in more stability in Pakistan and less Washinton control. More on AfPak, Afghanistan turmoil, and Pakistan-India relations next time.
Editor's Note: A great deal has taken place in this saga in Pakistan between the writing and publication of this article on Axis of Logic. An update by Talha Mujaddidi is forthcoming for publication on Axis of Logic. - LMB
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*Talha Mujaddidi is a writer/analyst, living in Pakistan and a columnist for Axis of Logic. He received his training as an electrical engineer in the United States. He was named "Who's Who" in American Colleges and Universities 2004. Talha has worked in inter-faith dialogue group at Michigan Technological University (MTU) and is former Chairman of the IEEE at MTU. He has also worked in the automobile and telecommunications industries in the U.S. and in Pakistan. He was part of the Boston-based non-profit Association for Development of Pakistan (ADP) which gathers funds for sustainable small development projects in rural areas of Pakistan. Talha likes to follow current affairs, politics of Middle East and South Asia. Talha is currently working on different small projects that range from spreading public opinion against disastrous effects of globalization, trying to motivate Pakistani people to rise up against corrupt Pakistani politicians, managing his own blog, and doing research for his book which that will come out in future. Talha can be contacted at: talhamujaddidi@gmail.com
