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For these hypotheticals, you need a plan and fresh troops. An additional 21,000 troops are being readied for the Af-Pak theater, and they are sufficiently large enough to fulfill the autonomous aspirations of the Balochs.
Disaster Central
The Afghan phase of the Global War on Terror was a fiasco from the onset. The Soviet intervention at least brought widespread female rights, education and a degree of health care to Afghanistan. This was rolled back by US-sponsored Mujahideen forces, which operated out of the now familiar tribal belts in Pakistan. The Mujahideen later coalesced into the Taliban.
NATO, in spite of its earlier stated missions, has failed abysmally in almost every key developmental indicator.
The Afghan literacy rate stands at an appalling 28 per cent and how much of this was achieved during the Soviet presence is left to the imagination. The Taliban, upon assuming power, would have hacked off children schooled under Soviet patronage.
The current infant mortality rate is, incidentally, 151.95 deaths/1,000 live births (CIA Factbook). It is a pitiful figure when you factor in the wealth and liberating potentials of the western world, represented as they are in military bases and charity organizations across Afghanistan.
The literacy level of course is heavily tilted towards males, as the Taliban does not countenance education and gender rights for females. Furthermore, if the literacy level of 28 per cent includes the semi-literate graduates of religious madrassas, you then have a young population schooled solely for jihad. Government schools are torched; school buses ferrying female students are routinely attacked.
Even the Taliban says it: Yes, we can!
Incidentally, funding for these madrassas pours in from another US ally – Saudi Arabia.
In Pakistan alone, the Saudis bankroll madrassas numbering between 12,000 and 15,000, having an estimated enrollment of 2 million students. The number of madrassas could perhaps be as high as 22,000. In contrast, there are approximately 15,000 government schools in Pakistan. [10]
One thing is clear. Af-Pak is regressing into a medieval theocracy. Militancy in the Swat Valley and neighboring areas may displace up to 2 million refugees until a deal is worked out. The Pakistani army has shown how serious it was in defending its territorial integrity by fielding an estimated 15,000 plus troops against the militants. With the generals in Kabul threatening to take matters into their own hands, this number has risen incrementally over the past 48 hours.
The remaining 500,000 Pakistani troops are bracing for an imaginary sneak attack from India.
Pakistani troops have little experience in counter-insurgency operations, though they have plenty of experience in teaching the art to jihadi insurgents in Indian Kashmir.
Success will not be swift. There are now Predators above, artillery below, and collateral damages strewn all around Af-Pak.
The time is near for a sweetheart deal, meaning more Shariah zones in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and a greater cut of the narcotics trade for the Taliban. If you are a heroin addict or a pusher, and you happen to be reading this, rush to sign a futures contract as prices will only go up.
Only a narco-Shariah deal can bring a temporary semblance of order into the Swat Valley. Islamic militancy has been likened to a terror-filled balloon -- when it is squashed in one spot, it immediately inflates in another. The brunt of this bulge will be felt in the eastern Pakistani provinces of Punjab and Sindh.
