* After five years of slavishly spewing out Bushite/GOP propaganda, the mainstream media is losing its credibility and its audience. The public is beginning to look to alternative sources for its news: the foreign media, the independent press, and of course, the internet.
* The would-be despots, Bush, Cheney and the rest, are not very good at despotism. There is a widening charisma-gap, as these leaders appear ever-less "commanding " and ever-more puerile, incompetent, and even pathetic. In addition, Bush and his minions are not "deep thinkers. " They prefer faith to science, and gut-feeling to expertise. The public is beginning to appreciate that this administration can not bend reality to its will, and that eventually "reality bites. "
All these factors are working to the disadvantage of the Bush regime, thus, the sub-surface stresses are accumulating. Given the manifest skills of the Bush propaganda machine, and the blackmail and intimidation issuing from Karl Rove 's office, the political fault beneath could hold fast throughout the next decade, into the Jeb Bush Administration. Or it could rupture next month. My guess is sooner, rather than later.
Meanwhile, the resistance is gaining in strength.
The catalytic moment for liberation movements arrives when (a) the movement achieves self-awareness when the dissenters look about and find that they are not alone, and recognize that they are participants in a concerted political force, (b) when the movement acquires effective leadership that focuses goals and coordinates action, and (c) when leaders and followers of the movement achieve results, albeit minor, and thus perceive that success is achievable. This perception that success is possible is, in itself, a formidable political force. "Perception is reality. " Si, se puede!
I opened with a warning about the unreliability of political predictions. So I will not now hazard predictions about the State of the Union in the fall, as the mid-term election approaches. However, I can point out some factors that might emerge in the meantime to re-shuffle the political deck.
Election fraud: As Bush 's approval ratings continue to fall, the economy sours, the Iraq casualty toll increases with no end in sight, the Abramov and Plame scandals yield indictments, the defensive lies from the White House become more transparent and desperate, opinion polls point to a Democratic blowout in the November elections. As more and more voices are heard to ask, "why on earth did we elect these guys?, " the public becomes ever more receptive to the reply, "we didn 't! Those damned machines elected them! " Then the Busheviks face a daunting dilemma: can they allow a Democratic takeover of the Congress, and with it the power of congressional investigation including the levers of subpoena and the threats of perjury and contempt of Congress? Or dare they once again "jigger" the computer programs, in the secret and unauditable ballot and compilation codes, to assure a GOP "victory, " thus inviting a Ukrainian-style public rebellion?
The Mainstream Media: As the MSM continues to lose its audience, it faces another dilemma: propaganda vs. profits. When the Soviet media, state-owned and thus in no need of profits, persisted in spewing out state propaganda, it gave rise to an underground media, samizdat, and an enthusiastic public audience for foreign broadcasts and publications. In the United States today, profits are a factor, as here and there elements of the MSM, facing competition from foreign and independent sources and the internet, are exhibiting increasing critical independence from the GOP party line. The opponents to Bush, Inc., need no counter-propaganda. A healthy dose of the truth will suffice as an invaluable resource in the struggle to bring an end to the reigning oligarchy.
Leadership: The resistance to Bushism is essentially leaderless, and thus unfocused and disorganized. When the leaders emerge, reflecting the values and aspirations of the resistance movement, that movement may become a formidable force.
I am not proposing another despot to replace the ones we have. If prospective leaders step forward with agendas alien to the followers, they will be discarded. Successful leaders must embody the values and aspirations of the movement. In an authentic popular movement, communication and coordination between leaders and followers flows in both directions. Though rebels by nature resist authority, leadership in a resistance movement is essential, for if the movement is to be effective, its goals must be defined and focused, and its activism coordinated. Let 's be realistic: where would the sixties civil rights movement be without Martin Luther King, Jr. or, of not King himself, a King-like leader? Where India, without a Gandhi, South Africa without a Mandela, Russia without a Sakharov? For that matter, where would the United States be without a Washington, Jefferson, Franklin and the rest? All of these succeeded as leaders because those in their movements chose to follow. Other individuals, lost to history, claimed leadership and were rejected.
Message Discipline is behind much of the success of the GOP. Memos with "talking points " issue forth from the offices of Karl Rove and Dick Cheney, with clear and simple messages that are heard, incessantly, in the echo chambers of right-wing talk radio and right-wing punditry. In contrast, the left speaks with a thousand tongues, with worthy causes spread all over the political landscape, and with factions, that should be allies, fighting amongst themselves for a place at the podium. Witness the Washington Mall peace rallies, where we hear messages of gay pride, reproductive freedom, animal liberation, save the rain forests, abolish the death penalty, and, oh yes, end the war. All these are commendable causes, and all these are also wedge issues that fracture the coalition, to the delight of the right, which therein gains an opportunity to divide and conquer.
To the public at large, a thousand messages equate with no message, and a validation of the tiresome right-wing criticism that "the left has no new ideas. "
The essential message of the resistance movement must be simple, clear, with few elements, and comprehensive enough to encompass a broad coalition of citizens, who may differ on particular issues: liberals, progressives, the religious, the secular, moderate Republicans, conservatives, libertarians. To the religious, ask "What would Jesus Do? " (I.e., promote peace and charity, and condemn wealth and hypocrisy). To "establishment " Republicans and their followers, "What is the supreme object of your loyalty? A party? A man who happens to be President " or your country and its laws and Constitution?" And to citizens in general: "What have they done to our country? "
If these few and simple messages are repeated, over and over, the public might at last pay attention, and the resistance movement might achieve self-identity and grow into an irresistible force for reform and renewal.
In conclusion, we must pay no attention to the pundits ' proclamations that Democratic control of Congress is "out of reach, " that impeachment is impossible, or that claims of election fraud are groundless paranoia.. There are live bombs in the basement of The House of Bush scandals, crimes, betrayals, treachery, even treason. Any one of these potentially explosive issues might, at any time, go off and bring down the entire wretched structure. Or they might all be defused, as a long night of despotism falls upon our republic. We can be confident only of this much: the present trends will not continue, and we must expect and be prepared to deal intelligently with the unexpected.
We Americans are not an evil people. Woefully ignorant at times, and short on political sales-resistance. But when we sense that we 've been swindled and lied to, watch out! Our country was born in rebellion against tyranny. We have a Constitution and we have a tradition of liberty and the rule of law. We have vivid memories of a short time ago when we lived in a country that was both prosperous and free.
