>> "In sum, this is Hillary's dilemma: Hold on to the bait, and both Clinton and the Democrats lose. Let go of the bait, and Obama wins. Hillary Clinton's victory in November is not an option."
A key House Democratic committee chairman the other day wondered aloud what I've heard voiced quietly elsewhere: If Hillary can't get the nomination in 2008, she'll so wound Obama that McCain might slip in. Or, even if Obama were to win the election, he'd be so damaged as to be unable to govern easily. In either case in 2012, Clinton, the only one left standing, figures she would be perfectly positioned to take the nomination.
Talk about "crazy"! Those reasons seems much too convoluted to be taken seriously, not the least because Clinton, in this scenario, would be universally recognized as the Dem spoiler who ruined the party's best shot for taking back the White House. She would be the Ralph Nader of 2008 who would never be forgiven by the very activist Democratic base she would need in a future run for the presidency.
TRAGIC FLAW: OVERWEENING AMBITION
I'm not sure Obama would be the greatest campaigner against McCain or would necessarily be a great or even better-than-average President. But he is intelligent and a quick-learner, who, I'd like to believe, might well rise to the occasion. What does seem clear is that he is on a virtually unstoppable course to win the Democratic nomination and if Clinton continues to take the low dirty road in her attempt to mortally wound him, any future career plans beyond the Senate for her are finished.
All politicians at this level are consumed by ambition, but they usually disguise it a bit. Clinton's is right out there for all to see. Will she, can she, rein in that aspect of her personality, especially if Obama winds up winning key states in the upcoming remaining primaries and more and more superdelegates endorse him? One would hope so for the good of the party, good of the country, good for her as an important Democratic leader. But the Clintons are notorious street-scrappers who will do or say anything to get what they want and, in any event, will not go gentle into that dark night. No wonder Rove is fixated on them, as they must remind him of aspects of himself.
That is crazy.
I know American politics don't make much sense to Europeans. Truth is, it barely makes sense to us here in the States. (On the other hand, I haven't asked you two to explain your own sketchy European pols such as Berlusconi, Sarkozy, Putin, et al.) But I hope I've supplied some insights that might be helpful. Write and let me know your further thoughts. -- Love to you and the kids, Bernie#
Bernard Weiner, Ph.D in government & international relations, has taught at universities in California and Washington, worked as a writer/editor for the San Francisco Chronicle for two decades, and currently serves as co-editor of The Crisis Papers (www.crisispapers.org).
First published by The Crisis Papers and Democratic Underground 4/29/08. www.crisispapers.org/essays8w/crazypolitics.htm
Bernard Weiner, Ph.D. in government & international relations, has taught at universities in California and Washington, worked for two decades as a writer-editor at the San Francisco Chronicle, and currently serves as co-editor of The Crisis Papers (www.crisispapers.org).
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