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By Bernard Weiner, The Crisis Papers (about the author) Page 3 of 3 page(s)
THE PAIN OF RE-ALIGNMENT
8. What we are witnessing already is the internal jockeying for power and influence in the two major parties. The post-election euphoria will hold the Dems together for a good while, but there will come a time, probably in mid-2007, when the splits between the progressive base and the more centrist new members, will show up big time, probably on Iraq, impeachment and how far to take the investigations of the Bush Administration.
It's the Republicans who are at each others' throats right now: libertarians attacking big-government privacy snoops, traditional conservatives attacking the neo-cons who took the country to war in Iraq under false premises and thus cost them the election, the rabid Christian right vs. the more reality-based politicians, tight-budgeters attacking those too prone to spend, spend, spend on pork-laden bills, etc. That re-alignment fight is going to get pretty nasty (X-rated for violence). Couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch of people.
ROVE ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL?
9. How to explain why the vote-counting seemed to be free of the kind of massive manipulation and fraud we've come to expect from Rove and his dirty-tricks minions? Yes, there were reprehensible and illegal attempts all across the country to keep hundreds of thousands of Democratic voters from exercising their franchise, but, at least at first glance, those seemed statistically mild compared to what could have happened.
It seems likely, one theory goes, that the White House knew early that they would be facing a Democratic tsunami from coast to coast and concluded that it would be too risky to try to fix the vote in so many voting jurisdictions; the chances of being caught-out were simply too great.
Besides, even if the Democrats took control of Congress, that wasn't entirely a bad thing in the long run view of Rove and Cheney. The Democratic-controlled Congress, this theory goes, would have to suffer a good share of the blame if Iraq continues as a disastrous running sore in 2008, plus the Dems could be used as handy scapegoats if and when the economy slides into a bad recession next year.
It's all a complex, fascinating political ballet, as the various factions and parties and individuals struggle for the brass rings of power.
JOCKEYS IN THEIR SADDLES
10. Speaking of jockeying for position, the 2008 campaign for president has already begun. There are the usual suspects talked about. Democrats: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Tom Vilsack, Al Gore, John Edwards, John Kerry. Republicans: John McCain, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Condoleezza Rice, Elizabeth Dole, Jeb Bush, Rudi Guliani, and so on. But, no doubt, more will emerge from within the new Democratic Congress, and from those reacting to that new situation.
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, place your bets. The horses (and dark horses) are approaching the starting gates. #
First published by The Crisis Papers 11/10/06.
www.crisispapers.org/essays6w/storm.htm
Copyright 2006 by Bernard Weiner.
www.crisispapers.org
The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author
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