Clinton's Negative Poll Ratings Soar; Would Lose to McCain in November
Clinton's negative poll ratings -- already the highest of the three remaining major candidates for the White House -- have increased sharply, partly as a result of the Bosnia debacle, with new polls suggesting that she would lose to McCain in the November general election if she became the Democratic nominee.
By comparison, Obama is locked in a statistical dead heat with McCain as independents -- without whom neither party can win in November -- are divided almost evenly between the Arizona Republican and the Illinois Democrat.
In a dramatic reversal of fortune, an Associated Press-Yahoo! News poll found that a clear majority of Democratic voters now say Obama has a better chance of defeating McCain in November than Clinton.
While Obama and Clinton are both sustaining dents and dings from their lengthy presidential fight, the former first lady is clearly suffering more. Democratic voters no longer see her as the party's strongest contender for the White House.
Voters of all types have gotten a better sense of Obama, who was an obscure Illinois legislator just four years ago. As more people moved from the "I don't know him" category in the AP-Yahoo! News poll, more rated Obama as inexperienced, unethical and dishonest. And 15 percent erroneously think he's a Muslim, thanks in part to disinformation widely spread on the Internet.
But Obama's positive ratings have climbed as well, while Clinton — widely known since the early 1990s — has been less able to change people's views of her. And when those views have shifted, it has hurt her more than helped. The New York senator's ratings for being honest, likable, ethical and refreshing have fallen since January, and Obama scores higher than she does in all those categories.
In late January, before Obama scored 11 straight primary and caucus victories, 56 percent of Democrats saw Clinton as the stronger nominee, compared to 33 percent for Obama. Now, Obama leads on that question, 56 to 43 percent.
White Discomfort With Obama's Race Largely Confined to Republicans and Conservatives, Poll Finds
Still, the poll, conducted by Knowledge Networks, contains some worrisome signs for the first-term senator. Those rating him as "not at all honest," for example, jumped from 18 percent last fall to 27 percent in April. It came as he was put on the defensive over incendiary comments by his former pastor, the Reverend Jeremiah Wright.
But many who hold such views are Republicans or conservative independents, who would be unlikely to vote in a Democratic primary or support a Democrat in the fall anyway. In January, 30 percent of Republicans rated Obama very unfavorably. That grew to 43 percent in April. Among conservative independents, 12 percent had a very unfavorable view of Obama in January. That has nearly doubled to 23 percent.
Obama would be the first African American to win the White House if elected, and the survey detected some evidence of racial discomfort in voters' minds. It found that about eight percent of whites overall would be uncomfortable voting for a black person for president.
That figure soars to about 13 percent of white Republicans, but very few, if any, white Democrats feel the same way. In November, about 5 percent of white Democrats indicated discomfort at voting for a black person for president, a figure that has remained unchanged since then.
The most encouraging sign for Obama is that many Democrats who previously saw Clinton as their party's best hope now give him that role. About one-third of them still prefer Clinton, but they have lost confidence in her electability.
If Campaign Dollars Were Votes, Obama Would Win By Landslide
Obama continued his torrid fundraising pace, netting $41 million in March. The Illinois senator is armed with a $42 million war chest to launch another TV ad blitz in Pennsylvania against Clinton. Overall, Obama had $51 million in the bank at the end of March, with nearly $9 million of that available only for the general election
I'm a native of New York City who's called the Green Mountain state of Vermont home since the summer of 1994. A former freelance journalist, I'm a fiercely independent freethinker who's highly skeptical of authority figures -- especially when they're on the wrong side of the issues I care about. But I'm not afraid to also call into question those with whom I would usually be "on the same page" if and when they, too, are on the wrong side of the issues I care about.
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