- Portions of the NIE that were released on August 23 contain the conclusion that while "[t]here have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq's security situation," "the level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq's sectarian groups remain unreconciled; [and] AQI [Al Qaeda in Iraq] retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks."
- The Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq, chaired by retired Gen. James L. Jones and created by the Congress to provide an independent assessment of the Iraqi Security Forces -- both military and police -- reported significant shortcomings with the Iraqi security forces, affecting their ability to reduce violence and provide security for the Iraq people. The commission reported: "The Iraqi Police Service is incapable today of providing security at a level sufficient to protect Iraqi neighborhoods from insurgents and sectarian violence. The police are central to long-term establishment of security in Iraq. To be effective in combating the threats that officers face, including sectarian violence, the Iraqi Police Service must be better trained and equipped." While the commission noted that it "believes that the Iraqi Police Service can improve rapidly should the Ministry of Interior become a more functional institution," its conclusion about the Ministry of Interior stated: "The Ministry of Interior is a ministry in name only. It is widely regarded as being dysfunctional and sectarian, and suffers from ineffective leadership. Such fundamental flaws present a serious obstacle to achieving the levels of readiness, capability, and effectiveness in police and border security forces that are essential for internal security and stability in Iraq." Regarding the National Police Force, the commission concluded: "The National Police have proven operationally ineffective. Sectarianism in its units undermines its ability to provide security; the force is not viable in its current form. The National Police should be disbanded and reorganized."
- As Media Matters noted, seven U.S. Army infantrymen and noncommissioned officers currently serving in Iraq wrote in an August 19 New York Times op-ed: "The claim that we are increasingly in control of the battlefields in Iraq is an assessment arrived at through a flawed, American-centered framework. Yes, we are militarily superior, but our successes are offset by failures elsewhere." The soldiers also wrote: "Given the situation, it is important not to assess security from an American-centered perspective. The ability of, say, American observers to safely walk down the streets of formerly violent towns is not a resounding indicator of security. What matters is the experience of the local citizenry and the future of our counterinsurgency. When we take this view, we see that a vast majority of Iraqis feel increasingly insecure and view us as an occupation force that has failed to produce normalcy after four years and is increasingly unlikely to do so as we continue to arm each warring side."
- In the September 6 Post article, headlined "Experts Doubt Drop In Violence in Iraq," staff writer Karen DeYoung reported that in his upcoming testimony to Congress on the status of Bush's Iraq troop increase plan, Petraeus "is expected to cite a 75 percent decrease in sectarian attacks." Citing the GAO report, the article added that "[o]thers who have looked at the full range of U.S. government statistics on violence, however, accuse the military of cherry-picking positive indicators and caution that the numbers -- most of which are classified -- are often confusing and contradictory." The Post added that "the intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations" regarding violence in Iraq. It also reported that one unnamed "senior intelligence official" specifically took issue with how the military counts acts of sectarian violence, because, according to the military, "[i]f a bullet went through the back of the head, it's sectarian .... If it went through the front, it's criminal."
Myth: "U.S. Military Deaths are Down this Summer"
On the August 30 edition of CNN's Lou Dobbs Tonight, guest host Christine Romans repeatedly claimed that American troop deaths in Iraq "are down this summer." Romans also reported that "[t]he Pentagon today is citing the surge in Iraq as a reason for a drop in troop deaths this summer" by comparing casualty figures in July and August to those in May, and she later asked if lower American casualty figures were a measure of the success of the "surge." Similarly, on August 1, all three broadcast networks' evening news programs -- ABC's World News with Charles Gibson, CBS Evening News with Katie Couric, and NBC's Nightly News with Brian Williams -- reported that the death toll for U.S. service members in Iraq was down in July. However, none of the programs noted at the time that U.S. troop death numbers for July, while lower than previous months, meant that this July was the deadliest July of the war. Nor did any of the news reports note that the death toll for U.S. service members during the months of June and July were the highest for this two-month period since the war began. Furthermore, while the number of troops killed in Iraq for the months of June, July, and August makes the summer of 2007 the deadliest summer of the war for American soldiers, a Media Matters review of the three network evening news broadcasts found that none of them have reported this fact.
Statistics compiled by the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count on its website iCasualties.org, which publishes death count totals provided by the Department of Defense, show that more U.S. troops have died in Iraq during June, July, and August this year than the same three-month period in 2003, 2004, 2005, or 2006. The website currently lists the total U.S. death count for this period at 264.
Nevertheless, as Media Matters noted (here and here), media outlets continue to overlook the combined casualty figures for U.S. troops during June, July, and August, while claiming that there have been fewer soldiers killed in Iraq this summer.
Myth: Democrats Agree the "Surge" is "Working"
In the last month, as several Democrats have commented on the current situation in Iraq, the Republicans and the media have routinely mischaracterized their statements about progress in Iraq to suggest that Democrats believe that Bush's troop increase is working and that the strategy has been successful. In fact, these Democrats have generally tried to make clear that their claims that progress was being made in Iraq referred specifically to military progress and not political progress, and that overall the troop increase was not working. As Salon.com's Tim Grieve noted:
We'll admit it's a fine distinction, but it shouldn't be so hard to understand. Is the "surge" having some success, in some areas, in reducing the levels of violence in Iraq? Yes. Is the overall "strategy" working -- that is, is the Iraqi government using the "breathing space" it's getting to do the things it needs to do? No. While it's certainly in the Bush administration's interests to conflate the questions and confuse the answers, the White House has people on staff paid to do just that. Journalists aren't supposed to be doing it for them.
Further, many of these Democrats had limited their claims about progress to the situation in Al Anbar province, which they often noted had nothing to do with the administration's strategy and which began 4-6 months prior to the arrival of any additional troops when local Sunni leaders agreed to assist U.S. soldiers there in fighting Al Qaeda. Nevertheless, as Media Matters has noted, media reports have repeatedly used Democrats' claims about Anbar to suggest that Bush's strategy is being successful, and sometimes to ask whether that success justifies staying in Iraq longer to give the surge a chance to work.
The following are examples of various media outlets mischaracterizing the statements of prominent Democrats to suggest that they believe Bush's escalation plan is working:
- Sen. Clinton
In an August 20 speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) said: "We've begun to change tactics in Iraq, and in some areas, particularly in Al Anbar province, it's working. We're just years too late changing our tactics. We can't ever let that happen again." An August 21 New York Times article reported that "[a]ides to Mrs. Clinton said her remarks that military tactics in Iraq are 'working' referred specifically to reports of increased cooperation from Sunnis leading to greater success against insurgents in Al Anbar Province." Several media reports following Clinton's speech, however, said that Clinton had conceded that the "surge" is "working." For example, MSNBC, the New York Post, the Associated Press, and The Washington Times all reported that Clinton said the Bush administration's so-called "surge" policy is "working."
Similarly, on the August 26 edition of CBS' Face the Nation, host Bob Schieffer falsely claimed that Clinton is "saying it looks like ... maybe the surge is working in the sense that there is less violence there."
