NICOLAI PETRO: One way that he might be able to indicate that his moderate stance actually can be realized in practice in Ukrainian politics would be to finally be the politician that acts to set up a true government of national unity, which is something that has been promised since the failed accords of February 21. I think he's actually very much what is needed to move Ukraine forward together, not to have a victory of one part of the country over the other, but really to be able to listen to those in opposition.
Because the people in Donbas, not necessarily the ones who are fighting--the main difference I think between those who are fighting and those who have not taken up arms is that the people who have taken up arms simply got tired for waiting to Kiev to listen to them. Whereas the rest are saying, "Well no, that's not really the solution that we want." But in order to actually be listened to, they have to be part of the dialogue. That initiative has to come from Kiev, and I hope Petro Poroshenko is the person to initiate that dialogue.
DAVID SPEEDIE: One of you said this a few moments ago, in passing, about some internal issues for him, in terms of the power struggle within the forces that overthrew, of course, Yanukovych some weeks ago. I think it was on the BBC that the comment was made by someone that Poroshenko's ascension to the presidency was, to some extent, due to the dithering and inability to find common ground among other candidates or parts of the opposition.
Is he, to this extent, a compromise candidate? Do you see him as a long-term viable option, or is it just too soon to tell?
NICOLAI PETRO: My sense is that it is a bit too soon to tell. He really has not defined his political agenda. He's created a coalition that is makeshift.
The thing that really put him over the rest, and made him stand out among the other candidates, was when, at the very outset, he got the endorsement of Vitali Klitschko. A serious rival candidate for the presidency withdrew and put his full support behind Poroshenko.
What Poroshenko, himself, stands for is not clear. As you say, he has the makings of a centrist candidate, but I'm not entirely sure how centrist Ukrainian politics is, and whether he will have the wherewithal to make the center hold.
RICHARD SAKWA: The thing is that he must be careful not to be seen simply as the president of Maidan. Maidan was many things. It evolved over time.
Certain of those elements, obviously he needs to put himself at the head of; that is, good governance, anti-corruption, reducing the excessive power of the oligarchs, when he is one himself, which may be a rather difficult act to do.
At the same time, there are other elements in Maidan, which he has to face down. We saw already last night, Klitschko, who looks as if he's going to be the mayor of Kiev, who's already said the Maidan has to disperse.
The power has to shift away from people who were not elected and not representative, and they're not accountable to anyone, to the institutions of power, the institutions of the state. That, at the moment, is the presidency, and in due course, if he says, a new parliament. But, of course, the parliament has to reflect the real forces in society.
It's no good having new parliamentary elections, if there's no party that can represent the East and the South, or part of the regions that effectively have fallen to pieces. It will take time and indeed, at the same time there needs to be a genuine party of liberalism in the middle, which can stand not for selective solidarities, but for individual rights, to establish genuine civic inclusivity of all elements in society.
This is an agenda, which I think can be done within the new framework, but it will take an act of political courage, like King Hal, Henry V, had to face down Falstaff his old buddy, as it were, in his youth. As he passed Falstaff, he ignored him. A little quiet cold-shouldering of some of the people who propelled Poroshenko to power may be in order.
DAVID SPEEDIE: There's your next article, Richard, "The Shakespearean Elements of the Ukrainian Crisis." Of course, Shakespeare is ubiquitous and for all time, as we know.
That comes back to the key question that I raised at the beginning, of really what these elections mean. It doesn't seem, from what you've just said, Richard, from the fact that the voter turnout that you spoke of yesterday, Nicolai, as being so low, attributed to a combination of factors--the inability to open polling places, the lack of local interest and available candidates, and, quite simply, a large segment of the eastern Ukrainian population, who no longer want to be part of the country--so to this extent, this election really hasn't done anything to solve that fundamental problem of the schism within the country, has it?
NICOLAI PETRO: Not yet, but it hasn't made things worse. In the context of Ukrainian politics, the expectations are so low that that's a good thing.
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